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chrispd01 t1_iymqet8 wrote

Reply to comment by Tinac4 in How to solve moral problems with formal logic and probability by beforesunset1010

I think in reality it comes under intuition. You have an idea experientially as to what is a reasoanble course of action to take. Tonthe extent a mathematical decision gets made, its at the level of “i probably ought to be ok”

Thinking about, there is a good analogy in the world of sports - look at the change in basketball shot patterns. The change is traceable to applying an economic / statistical approach to thise decisions.

But my point is people are more like players before the analytical approach took over. They tend to use intuition and “feel” more than the sort of evaluation you are talkkng about.

In fact its really interesting how wrong peoples intuitions are in those situations … making the less efficient choice, choosing the wrong strategy etc.

That to me shows that in practice people do not ordinarily make the sort of calculations you were describing. It doesn’t mean that they should not make those, just that they do not.

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[deleted] t1_iymxq1u wrote

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chrispd01 t1_iyn2qwr wrote

It looks like that except in practice its not. There isnt a real analysis going on in terms of real data etc. hence the basketball model - once people start actually applyjgn analysis the behavior markedly changes

That means that people arent doing that becaue once they start doing that their behavior changes.

The counter to that i think is that people think they are doing that but they are doing a bad job. But in general i dont thibk they really are - they dont make a conscious evalaution of the steps to solve the problem and they just intuit it. They may thinknthey exercosdd judgemtn but in practice they did not

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