It looks like that except in practice its not. There isnt a real analysis going on in terms of real data etc. hence the basketball model - once people start actually applyjgn analysis the behavior markedly changes

That means that people arent doing that becaue once they start doing that their behavior changes.

The counter to that i think is that people think they are doing that but they are doing a bad job. But in general i dont thibk they really are - they dont make a conscious evalaution of the steps to solve the problem and they just intuit it. They may thinknthey exercosdd judgemtn but in practice they did not