Submitted by piratestears t3_11d2zvk in rva
How long do you think it is before RVA meets the same fate of cities like Austin or Portland? Losing all its charm and weirdness, and becoming one of the more expensive COL cities. Is there hope for RVA to not meet this same fate?
Give it 10 years
No need to worry, I think it simply will not grow at those extreme levels.
Being from Portland, and living through it’s decline, my guess is ten years.
The big differences that RVA has to Portland that may affect the development timeline, in comparison, are the highway infrastructure, the “dangerous” reputation, and the close proximity to other cities.
Once they start building “health food” stores on the South Side, you’ll know there’s an issue.
Also, as long as a popular comedian doesn’t create a show making fun of RVA subcultures titled, “Richmondlandia” things should develop reasonably.
I think SXSW is the reason why Austin blew up.
As soon as there’s riots and mass organized shoplifting in Short Pump or Midlothian then you’ll know RVA is well on its way to being Austin or Portland.
Not a direct comparison. Places like Austin have a huge tech market that helps drive their growth specifically. In contrast, remote work lets some people move to Richmond, but those jobs are not specific to Richmond and the remote workers are spread across many municipalities.
[deleted]
Arguably it already happened.
A few decades IF the growth rate was at a much faster trajectory than it is now. Look on Wikipedia at the decade-by-decade population for each city - Austin has really never lost people and has always been growing quickly. Portland has 2X the population it had in 1950.
RVA lost significant levels of people while Austin (and other comps like Nashville) grew at double digit rates for many decades at a time. We are just getting back to 1950s levels of population. Though this is only the city, not the MSA. The MSA overall has seen much stronger relative to the city but still not at all anything like Austin. Though - population growth alone is going to not show the effects of gentrification and displacement/replacement from lower to higher income residents. Still, we have room. The best comp for questions like this are not big boom cities - it’s places like Grand Rapids.
Stay out of Malibu, Lebowski!
Really wish posts like these could establish what the ideal amount of weirdness or charm was. Like give me a benchmark year. Are we talking Nancy Raygun to strange matter transition or highest murder per capita? Work with me here.
Richmond’s geography and the fact that it’s an independent city surrounded by counties that aren’t particularly interested in regional planning sort of limit it’s growth potential. There just isn’t a lot of land in the city compared to, say, Charlotte which has grown much faster than Richmond.
I’ve lived in Portland in the 90’s which was right before it blew up and it was awesome. I know it gets a bad wrap now but I’m sure if you’re in the right situation there’s still a lot to love. But the growth displaced so many people and the local government gave up on the urban planning policies that they used to throttle growth. The land just became so valuable with Californians flooding in.
I think Richmond is going to follow the trend of ever American urban center. It will continue to grow, get denser, gentrify, and property values will push middle class families to the counties or smaller apartments and working class people will live in some cluster like Hopewell/Petersburg and get bussed in. Look at Springfield in northern Virginia. It won’t ever be Austin or Portland or Charlotte, for that matter. Still, the traffic will suck, the affordability will decline and some people will move to someplace a little further behind the development curve to get the “big little city” feel.
"fixed gear bikes are over!"
[deleted]
/r/BonAir will have to become weirder once the city prices ppl out of buying their first homes there
I don't think it ever will grow anywhere near those, but I personally would enjoy SOME growth. It is especially evident how small this city is in the winter. There is damn near nothing to do except for the usual bowling/barcade/bar. There is very little variety in live music, very few comedy shows, etc.
WHOLE FOODS IS CORPORATE!!
The dream of the 90s is alive in Richmond
Growth may be restricted in some areas, at least for a while. The fan is pretty much fully developed, and the "historical" factor already makes it difficult to change anything there. Although it could get more crowded if more houses are converted into apartment buildings.
Don’t say that, it’s dangerous!
Exactly I also would like to see a club with a big dance floor and more lounges.
It literally grew by 15% the past decade.
Richmond has things that are driving growth here. It's just that it's not tied exclusively to one sector, but rather 3 sectors.
It’s already gotten pretty fucking uncool
Which sectors
All cities are independent in Virginia. Charlotte ftucked their tax code base up to appeal to their banks and insurance. That’s why they out grew up and they very poorly managed their growth. Almost all sprawl.
I can’t speak to portlands 90s growth but their past ten years of urban planning have been great relative to other cities. Certainly better than Arizona, Austin or Houston.
NOVA exists in a vacuum. Even if a lot of departments and beuracracy move out west, congress, the president, and the pentagon will never leave each other and that white marble. Plus the metro is a huge part of war planning in the case of gas hitting $10/gallon.
Information technology, manufacturing, and financial. Although out of three, there isn't one company that's driving growth like Phillip Morris did in the 20th century.
What about Twisters
For me it was when they put a chilis on Belvedere
And the Red Light Inn!
Little live music? Maybe little live music you like. There is music almost every night here lol.
Make Richmond Sketchy Again!
RVA’s COL is below the country’s average, and I don’t see that changing any time in the foreseeable future.
Portland and Austin both became tech hubs, which is what drove up COL in those cities. Richmond doesn’t have anything that is particularly attractive to large tech companies.
Out of those three sectors, financial is the only one that has the potential to drive big CoL increases. IT and manufacturing aren’t particularly high-paid industries, and manufacturing plants (and the people who work there) are almost always located far outside the city limits.
It just gets tiring hearing people whine about something that they either A: Were not a part of and didn't live through it or B: Don't even know how far back you need to go to get true gritty Richmond charm. It's like RVA MAGA or some shit.
23 hours. The end is nigh.
We are talking about metro wide, aren't we? I have heard instances of people moving from portions of Southside Virginia to Richmond only just to work in those said industries.
>IT
I said IT because it's whether if you would consider Costar an IT company or finance one.
Already has.
Chesterfield was in 2nd place line to get the Intel semiconductor plant, but the site wasn't ready. I think we will get a fab again in future.
around 20 years. There is hope of avoiding it by loosening up zoning so we have more housing.
People will move here no matter what, the people who think there is some way of stopping that are just delusional
Yeah, the wrong way to word it, but I mean more popular bands outside of the national. Definitely catch quite a few shows at the camel but the diversity is lacking.
I know, I know!
It's how RVA felt the day they moved here. Anything before that or after that was bad.
Was reading an article on Austin in the New Yorker yesterday, with a quote telling someone in the 70s that Austin really peaked in the 60s. Captured what you are saying perfectly
we can get far more dense. There is so much open land left in Richmond. Even in places like the Fan and Museum District.
Don't understimate the impact of being so close to the DC metro, so much nicer, and so much cheaper. Doesn't take all that much of Nova to move here to change this place dramatically
not easily. But maybe. I could show you a bunch of dirt cheap fan places. But they are secrets now, not something you can rock up to as a random member of the public.
Right, but big plants don’t drive CoL increases because they are built far outside the city, and the people that work there typically live/build houses in more suburban/rural outlying areas where there aren’t many constraints on land availability (so people moving there do not really increase the prices).
The Gulf Coast has hundreds of large manufacturing facilities that employ millions of people, and is one of the fastest-growing areas of the country in terms of population. Yet Gulf Coast cities have some of the lowest CoL in the country.
we have a LOT of corporate headquarters. A lot more expensive jobs than people on this sub tend to think. Hence the really high household income in western henrico.
Austin got the huge tech market after it was a hot place to live - being cool brought in the tech companies, not vice versa.
I think it's 20 years, not 10. Richmond feels like Portland or Austin did in 2000 or so. Still kind of a secret, cool in pockets, lots of people just there.
is it too late to put Birds on things?
MSA is a much better way of looking at this area. And most. But Richmond in particular is landlocked and small comparatively
Let’s hope so!
Maybe with this economic downturn that might be the case.
No, birds are okay!
We need more Bernie too.
pandemic did a number on us and we still haven't recovered, were you here pre pandemic?
City is still half dead, but I don't think that will last
I mean, it depends on what you like and who's touring. We do (have always) been passed as people go to DC or Norva. I end up at Broadberry or house shows. Really not much coming ATM that I'm interested in.
Pretty much, yes. Fully? No. You could put a tower on each gas station.... as was done by lowes. No need to tear anything down and all of a sudden that's a whole lot more housing. There have always been scattered towers in the fan and it hasn't hurt anything
end of the big fiber to ?spain? but not a huge employment driver.
But look at why Costar is moving here
The problem is that for many years very little new housing was built in the city. No one wanted to live here because of the crime problem. It will take much longer for Richmond to catch up to other cities. Also, as you've pointed out in the past, Richmond has a lot of public housing projects that are off limits to private developers.
2006 was a pretty good benchmark year in my lifetime, but after reading a bunch about the Biograph era, 1978 sounds like it was a pretty great time to be weird in Richmond.
I don’t see this happening anytime in the next 10 years. If a band wants a big venue and guaranteed tickets - they’re just gonna play DC. We share basically the same market as Charlottesville / Hampton / Raleigh so unless they all collapse, bands are just gonna split them on different legs of tour and play DC when they get too big
I know. Lived in Athens, GA and made many, many, many trips to ATL for shows
You're not wrong.
I don’t disagree but the city data is worth looking at because the significant population decline is a phenomena that the other cities mentioned haven’t seen. And - these threads that are concerned with new development are typically focused on the city rather than the surrounding burbs. But yes - our political definition of the city hurts comparisons to other places, especially outside VA.
RVA's great but it doesn't have the job market to drive THAT level of investment and growth.
I was here for that and I don't think it's any more or less interesting than now. Maybe some of grace was uhhh charming but that's it really.
It’s all vibe based
Commercial real estate for sure.
The fortune 500s in town are all financial and lawyers, arent they?
you are very right of course. But we can catch up eventually. And it will get worse if we don't try
Poorly executed joke I attempted apparently… Your comment just made me recall when people were complaining about twisters becoming raygun but now I’m just showing my age 😅
yes, but that's more a symptom than a cause. Though it adds to the economy
I got it though! I'm only 37.
I don't think any lawyers, though we have 2 international firms, that one is an interesting question they might get left off. Hunton and McGuire. Biggest 2 are Performance Food Group and Carmax. Capitol one isn't on here because headquarters in Nova, but it still matters too. As do VCU/VCU med and state
link
https://www.grpva.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Fortune-1000-blog.png
It's entirely "when I was in college I did super weird shit in strange places because that's what you do at 19 but now that I'm older and have different priorities Richmond is boring" based.
he said very little VARIETY in live music. Crappy cover bands are not everyone's thing
Just don’t turn into Seattle. Nothing worse than junkies shitting on your front porch and leaving needles in your yard.
Green City 1700 seat arena is under construction.
I don't go see cover bands either. There are times I've hit 5 shows in two weeks. Again...depends what you like.
Ugh. I prefer 200 cap clubs.
There is actually LESS housing in the fan, It used to be run down and every mansion was chopped up into apartments, now those are turning back into single houses. What used to house 10 students now houses a family
fwiw Portland has had minor population declines (2003) now, and I think post war as have other major cities. I think it's interesting but not major.
And our last census was an undercount for various reasons.
But urban area/msa is the best way to look. If someone moves from the Fan to lakeside I don't think they've really left Richmond
Not that poorly executed, they just haven't lived here long enough (or maybe I've lived here too long lol)
its a normal cycle, we will have another one in the meantime too.
But it's still going to happen of course. Data is up and to the right.
5 shows in two weeks of what genre?
Could you give me an example of a "tower on a gas station" in the fan? Not saying you're wrong. I just don't know what you're talking about.
You think it's going back in the direction of single family homes? Maybe. I expect there will be companies or individuals buying properties to convert into apartments, and hold as an investment , but I guess some of the market is also composed of people wanting the whole house to themselves.
I'm old, it was pre-covid and I only remember a few of the bands with out looking. And, I would have no idea genre...regardless it would be genres. I just listen to what I like.
Well if you know any places that have blue grass on the regular please dm me
new apartments by lowes
yes happening a lot
no that's a money loser these days, not happening. It's the reverse, multi unit buildings going back to single families.
Also illegal under zoning, but that's not really what's stopping it
A place can't maintain weirdness with any authenticity because weirdness is itself a temporary state. The more it tries, the more it's just a prepackaged experience crafted to meet an expectation. Then it's not weird, it's a product.
The weirdness you want is going to be where recent college grads are settling in and building up with their own efforts.
NP. Not my jam but I did just meet a Bluegrass musician lol. I know some friends went to Cville for a show a week or so ago, and they seem to frequent bluegrass shows.
Hmmm Cville, I'll look into it
Come on down to southside I get sketchy shit going on right near my house all the time haha and by sketchy shit I mean murders and random gun fire haha
Also aside from people on the east coast Richmond is not a destination anyone cares about. People move from all over the country to the PNW. I don’t think that is or will ever be the case for Richmond VA.
Not sure my passport lets me cross the river.
Im in bonair trying to keep it weird.
I think you’re somewhat right about that. Although, hardly anybody moved to the PNW for the location before Portlandia.
Thank you!!! I’ve been trying to remember the name of that place for a couple weeks now!!!
Including insurance in that, you have Markel and Genworth. There are also several smaller agencies like Kinsale and Elephant in town.
Also, while Richmond is not the headquarters for many companies, there are many employers with large administrative presences including Capital One, Truist, Well Fargo, and UPS.
Early 2000s to 2005 was late murder / early maximum weirdness. We're talking punchline magazine and Wadi and Alley katz.
2005 to 2010 was peak organically creative because everybody discovered each other through Myspace and craigslist and blogs and RVAMAG and created things like underground house shows and no BS brass and farmers markets.
2011 to 2016 was the early post-Lincoln movie branding period when everyone bought the RVA sticker for their car and send each other that one "RVA River City" YouTube video. we thought we were cool for having an international bike race in 2015. This is the period where people started getting brewskis at hardywood and all the other local breweries popped up in Scott's Addition. It feels like this is when Richmond was getting a lot of outside attention to include chef awards and such. A lot of international mural artists came in painted our city. There was a very small EDM scene at the time which I'm not sure I think it went away.
It's hard to say what 2016 to present has been. Covid 2020 definitely put a damper on the vibe.
Yes, all the Grace Street flop houses became fancy pants mansions again
They took a dumpy corner gas station and turned it into a 16-story apartment complex
UPS freight in manchester got bought out.
​
Unless you mean something else?
Huge insurance presence here- Markel in particular has boomed
Hey you really are from Richmond!
Lol Costar is neither. It's a data company similar to Bloomberg or Nielsen.
This is actually fairly accurate. I'd say the early to mid 2000s could be weird, but I don't think most people experienced it or would willingly go back to it.
It has already started. I’d say Richmond has about 25% the quirky charm that it had 20 years ago and maybe 10% of 30 years ago.
They sell data on commercial real estate, they don't actually invest in or sell commercial real estate.....
[deleted]
No, that's OVER.
I enjoy dressing up nice and dancing. Also, I miss lounge type atmospheres that's not a hookah lounge.
I've never seen people dressed up nicely at a club.... If you want a place to just sit around and be social go to a bar.
The last census showed this trend as well, and the fan population actually went down. the only new multi fam in the Fan is tear downs of crappy stuff on the edge of the fan, plus the rich NIMBYS
It's not. It will continue to experience some gentrification and COL increases consistent with the rest of the country, but without a booming tech industry or major cultural attraction like SXSW (or a satirical tv show) to put it on everyone's radar, that kind of exponential growth is not going to happen here. Raleigh-Durham is the next east coast tech hub, with Apple and Google increasing their footprint there, and larger and more diverse job market to boot.
Just my opinion and guess for the future.
I want the evidence cited that Austin and Portland have "lost all charm and weirdness".
Unless the landscape in both those cities is nothing but Chilis and other chains and no active local bands or other groups in the arts I don't really know how much the city has irrevocably changed vs. the natural cycle of businesses which are hard to operate long term.
There are plenty of places in Richmond I miss but there also lots of new places that are exciting to see.
Do I miss the old richmond or do I miss parts of being 20 years old?
Obviously Fall 2008 was not fun for a lot of ppl. On the one hand, everyone at Circuit City lost their job. On the other hand, lots of ppl were forced to found a startup ##CreativeDestruction
Richmond is not Austin. I grew up in Dallas with multiple trips to Austin throughout my life. I also lived in Austin in 2015-ish when you could still get into SXSW for free shit.
Richmond is missing a lot of what made Austin, Austin. So decades.
Can’t comment on the weirdness, but after 10 years I can say it has gotten a hell of a lot more expensive!
The other day near maymont I saw a car driving real slow down a side road around dusk, people were dancing in hot dog costumes around it as it slowly drove, there was a woman lying on the roof of a car and a moped circling with what looked like a plate of hot dogs or some kind of food. Was pretty solid level of weird, I just nodded and drove around. Frankly I have own a hot dog costume too and was envious.
This is pretty spot on.
My friend has been a bartender for several decades here in RVA and I’m amazed by the rent prices she has found. For a looooong time, I mean up until very recently, she paid $600 for a one bedroom apt. Now she’s got a 3 bed 2 bath house for $1200!
yep. I know a bunch of people paying under 1k for fan apartments. Or museum district townhouses.
Ironically I think bartenders are more likely to be tied in than the average person!
I don't understand
Soloemilia t1_ja6gu5y wrote
I think parts of the fan are already there, the bartender at the cool restaurant you like to go to can’t also live in the neighborhood anymore