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againer t1_iua7f6f wrote

Mixed bag. Lots of transplants flocked here because of LCOL. There are more rentals on the way and still not a lot of inventory for a buyer. Rising mortgage rates will cool the heels of some buyers.

Redfin, Zillow, Airbnb are dumping their inventory. A shitload of toxic assets can absolutely destroy a balance sheet. Corporate homebuyers face the same fate.

The interesting bit will be what happens after earnings reports come out and signal if we're truly headed towards a recession. There have been rounds of layoffs in almost every sector.

If we are headed into a recession. Employers are going to have all the leverage. The old school CEOs who prefer people to be in office are absolutely going to use this as a way to force employees back into the office, "trim the fat"( laying off middle management / "low performers" ), or use it to justify reducing pay to match regional costs. There have already been layoffs or hiring freezes in many sectors. Have you tried applying for a job lately? The process is a fucking nightmare! Now combine that with job scarcity and an overflowing pool of laid off workers.

Those who bought a high priced home based in the past two years planning on two incomes are going to be struggling if one of those incomes dries up. Unless one partner can carry the weight, that RVA grass isn't going to appear as green when they realize there's not a lot of tech jobs here and might be forced to sell. Increasing the inventory.

All we can do is wait and see.


opienandm t1_iuani5j wrote

I’m confused - what inventory of housing does Redfin, Zillow, and Airbnb control or own?


againer t1_iuaqxyc wrote


Charlesinrichmond t1_iub1tcg wrote

Zillow is out of the ibuyer market a while back. Not clear redfin now has bought any houses in Richmond

Airbnb has certainly not built any houses in Richmond. And is just not that big a deal, we aren't Austin or Nashville


againer t1_iudpq4h wrote

Yeah, I wasn't being particular to those companies in the Richmond market. Just that their moves indicate a trend.


Charlesinrichmond t1_iudqk06 wrote

it's actually been going the other way - turned out their models weren't working and they lost a fortune, so everyone is dialing back. Given a down market I expect that will happen even faster


againer t1_iudtekr wrote

Yeah. Too risky to their bottom line and best to stick to their core business model.


Charlesinrichmond t1_iudu55e wrote

they loved the idea, but they were getting slaughtered. Read up on the zillow mess you might find it amusing. And that was in an up market


againer t1_iuduua6 wrote

Yeah. VCs, tech valuation, and "profitablity" is a fucking wild landscape. Meta is a prime example of that.


opienandm t1_iub35rb wrote

You know they don’t hold those assets, they flip them as soon as possible, right? Dumping would imply a liquidation, which I’ve seen no indication of happening. Do you have data?


againer t1_iudv6cy wrote

I should have clarified that it's the big corporate homebuyers who are going to be the bag holders on toxic home assets. Not the three companies I originally indicated. I didn't mean like wholesale liquidation as in they own thousands of homes, just getting rid of the inventory of what they do own. I don't see it majorly impacting the housing market here or at large. Just pointing out that it's a signaling indicator.

Some of the big corporate homebuyers can carry the float. Only for so long though. At the end of the day though, no one likes going to their boss and saying "Yeah I lost us a ton of money by holding on too long". Even CEOs fear the board.


revel911 t1_iud27f0 wrote

I don’t see your collation with tech jobs? Most tech companies are going full remote allowing people to live anywhere. Now some of them (meta, twitter) are will be letting people go, but that is mostly to stupid dealings.


againer t1_iuds2ks wrote

The jobs that lend themselves to being fully remote with high pay tend to be in technology. Yes, there are companies that are fully remote. There are also companies pushing for hybrid. Like I originally posted, if we go into a recession, employers are going to use this as leverage.

You're only seeing the tip of the iceberg.

Here's more.

Keep in mind when you are remote and laid off. You're competing against everyone in the United States (generally speaking) who are qualified for a position. Would you hire someone from a top 5 tech giant or someone from a company you've never heard of? Lots of companies will bait and switch and say "fully remote" and really mean hybrid. They'll also know that they can get away with offering a lower salary because they'll find someone willing to take the pay cut and they can save money.

Finding a new job is a nightmare in the digital age. Go look at /r/recruiting.