What's up with the COVID numbers in Richmond?

Submitted by Ashbin t3_z4mv0e in rva

While RSV and the Flu are big bads out there at the moment, COVID is still creeping around, and seems to have set up shop in Richmond.

I had noticed recently that Richmond came in 2nd place in the state for the number of COVID cases on a particular day a few times.

I got the stats today for the numbers of cases of COVID per 100,000 residents for the recent days, and Richmond is the 14th easiest place in the State right now to contract COVID.

The rate in Richmond is 164.47 COVID cases per 100,000 people. In Henrico County, this figure is 19.04 (near the bottom of the list).

What's up with their being an almost eight times chance of catching COVID in Richmond City over Henrico County at the moment?

Usually, the Richmond area (and surrounding counties) run about the same. But something shifted in the last couple of weeks to put Richmond up near the top of the list.

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LeicesterHoult t1_ixrwvgr wrote

It really feels like you can’t put any stock in the official numbers anymore. I and everyone I know got covid in August when the state and city numbers were flat. Also no one reports when they have it, so almost all cases go unnoticed.

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gracetw22 t1_ixs5lho wrote

You can’t even report when you have it and test positive on a home test. Or I couldn’t when I had it

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Jaded_Apple_8935 t1_ixsf74i wrote

This is the biggest reason. Numbers are artificially low because the data is only based on PCR testing done in a lab. Since alot of people use rapid home tests now, positives don't get counted. Is this a stupid public health policy? Yes. But our gov probably loves it this way since his fan base includes covid minimizers.

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raindeerpie t1_ixsfjuj wrote

but that's the way it is in every state. this is not some conspiracy theory.

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Ms-Pamplemousse t1_ixst6o0 wrote

Let's be honest, there's not one party of COVID minimizers anymore.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvh977 wrote

We are far lower in the curve now than in August. We are in a bottom.

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Vajama77 t1_ixryly2 wrote

I was told that the vaccination rate was low, could be a cause. And yes, very few are masking and EVERYTHING is open to the masses. I have yet to have it. 🤞

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BugggJuice t1_ixrzgan wrote

yeah, most people haven't gotten their boosters yet so that'll do it

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvh1be wrote

Yes, you are correct in the vaccination rate being low. Real low. One Virginia county has only something like 0.5% of the residents vaxxed. And if you guessed it was in a "red" area, you would be correct.

I have not had COVID yet either, nor my spouse who works in healthcare and has patients with COVID she is hands on with.

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PayneTrainSG t1_ixv87l6 wrote

It's really nbd to get your bivalent covid and flu shots. I haven't heard anyone with adverse reactions or otherwise getting flattened by their immune system response to them. Supply should be good now and you can get them for free on the same day in a lot of places.

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GB3754 t1_ixylpqf wrote

Mmm, my bivalent booster knocked me flat. Fever of 103, headache that wouldn't go away, and nausea/vomiting. It was an awful 24 hours and I almost went to urgent care to see if they could help me stop the vomiting, but thankfully it turned a corner. I had my flu shot a few weeks prior and had a mildly sore arm.

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Vajama77 t1_ixvgiqk wrote

I got them together and it wasn't pleasant. The first two covid shots/booster were fine. I think it's the flu shot that made me feel like crap for two days.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvia4l wrote

I have a friend who did the same thing you did; both at once. Knocked her on her butt for about four days. And I think you are correct. From what I've been hearing, the flu vaccine can really kick your ass.

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wermodaz t1_iy14i17 wrote

Had them both at the same time, no reaction. But I've never had a reaction from a flu shot nor the 3 previous covid shots.

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Ashbin OP t1_iy1vfe1 wrote

Lucky you....that's a fairly rare situation to have, but a good one.

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PayneTrainSG t1_ixvsck4 wrote

In my experience, if i have any lingering crud in my system that already has my body on high alert, it lights up like a Christmas tree with a flu shot. All of the wild temperature fluctuations, colds, RSV, made the flu shot more annoying to time.

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danadane1419 t1_ixrybfr wrote

I got Covid for the first time and had I not known I had been around people who were positive I would have thought it was sinuses or allergies. I started a hybrid schedule at work 3 months ago and got it from my coworkers.

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MaryDellamorte t1_ixs8930 wrote

I caught it for the first time also and it was pretty mild. My friend caught it in October and was in the hospital for a bit but was discharged. Ended up developing pneumonia and she passed away yesterday. She was in her mid 30s with no health conditions.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvi02d wrote

Damn, sorry to hear that.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixzegwg wrote

Coworkers who come in sick. The gift that keeps on giving. How bad did it get with you -- just "sinuses or allergies" as you said, or did it hit harder?

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danadane1419 t1_ixzewuo wrote

Thankfully it wasn’t too bad. Mostly head congestion, sore throat and low grade fever. It was only 1 day that I stayed in bed.

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upearlyRVA t1_ixsaurh wrote

I've now had it three times. It's endemic and just another virus. The numbers are irrelevant given the proliferation of take home tests. My kid has the common cold and it's kicking his but. He's been down for 5 days with terrible sore throat and congestion.

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BugggJuice t1_ixrombg wrote

it's probably because nobody wears masks anymore? not to mention it's the holiday season so people are unmasked in close quarters more often than any other time of the year. we also have a travel hub here with the train and the airport

we're also a college town? and college kids spread disease like it's their job

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Ashbin OP t1_ixrs5dk wrote

It's just sort of odd it changed up in the last couple of weeks. On Wednesday, Richmond was #3 in the state for new COVID cases.

Chesterfield is running about half of what Richmond is producing, and Henrico was always there big time but seems to be taking a small break.

This data is only for the past week or so, but when I saw Richmond three times came in #2 in the state for new cases (population about 230,000), I was surprised. It was only beat by a county with a population of about 880,000 (Fairfax County), which just seemed weird.

Edit: left out some words

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Utretch t1_ixsdp1u wrote

Is it odd? The last two winters cases skyrocketed why should we expect differently?

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SwanOverSunshine t1_ixt1kx0 wrote

I think the question is why is Richmond high, but Henrico low? Most of Covid, they’ve been similar. My guess is it’s a data reporting issue - maybe for some reason, people in the city are using testing resources that get reported in the stats more than Henrico residents?

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvfzv5 wrote

Virginia is actually at a very low point at the moment....bottom of a curve and a new curve (surge) for COVID has not yet started.

Wednesday:

/r/coronavirusVA/comments/z2w9b4/virginia_covid_case_hospital_numbers_report_for/

/r/coronavirusVA/comments/z4nf5u/virginia_breakdown_by_citycounty_of_new_covid/

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oddistrange t1_ixtftiq wrote

A majority of the Richmond-metro area's hospital beds are located in Richmond, COVID results are probably attributed to the locality of the reporting hospital not the locality of the patient's residence. MCV and Chippenham are both in Richmond with ~1400 beds combined. Henrico Doctor's hospital is carrying the weight of Henrico with 767 beds. St Francis in Midlothian has 130 beds. This could be where and why the numbers are getting funky because I'm pretty sure most hospitals still require a COVID test for inpatient admissions.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixve8el wrote

> A majority of the Richmond-metro area's hospital beds are located in Richmond, COVID results are probably attributed to the locality of the reporting hospital not the locality of the patient's residence.

VDH accounts for this and puts in location corrections. If you live in Chesterfield, VDH will consider it a Chesterfield COVID case, even if you are in a hospital in Richmond. The COVID report sent to VDH (by a hospital) has your address on it, and they code it based on that. If a screw up happens, a correction is issued.

These corrections for similar situations were put into the VDH database Wednesday:

Galax (-1 case)
New Kent County (-1 case)
Northampton County (-1 case)
Covington (-1 case)
Bath County (-1 case)
James City County (-3 cases)
Lexington (-4 cases)
Norton (-7 cases)
Colonial Heights (-10 cases)
Radford (-11 cases)

data from VDH database

Edit: corrected a wrong word

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Ditovontease t1_ixs82j7 wrote

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/

I mean this says richmond is at 41 outbreaks vs 43 for henrico so idk

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvgkqw wrote

Wednesday, Richmond was #3 in the state, only beat out by two high population northern VA counties.

Edit: /r/coronavirusVA/comments/z4nf5u/virginia_breakdown_by_citycounty_of_new_covid/

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SecureCap6661 t1_ixtrmja wrote

You sure that's not Richmond County?

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvd3rh wrote

Positive

Edit: Richmond County is 22.17 per 100,000.

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codva t1_ixrvk8x wrote

I suspect, in reality, Henrico is a lot closer to Richmond's number than the number Henrico is reporting. Maybe lower income areas of Richmond are more likely to get tested at health department where numbers are tracked, where everybody in Henrico is self testing?

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PerlinLioness t1_ixt744w wrote

If you’re working for the state and get Covid there’s an active effort to downplay it. Sick people are sent home to work with the expectation of working through it remotely or else. A lot of actively sick people had to describe themselves as merely exposed.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixveefm wrote

That's...well, I smell politics.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvr6al wrote

BTW, I put this up here in good faith asking if anyone knew anything. I live near Richmond and am the main poster for the Virginia COVID subboard. I was not taking potshots at anyone, but was generally curious why I had seen a change recently in the city. I've been a member of the RVA board for a fairly long time.

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TheRealSuperJeff t1_iy41ku4 wrote

Covid's over havent ya heard? Your only cool if you get the Flu and or RSV now

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i_need_a_lift t1_ixzgrjp wrote

TIL there's actually someone still paying attention to COVID numbers

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EurydiceSpeaks t1_ixt5ao3 wrote

Look, just because most conspiracy theories are ridiculous doesn't mean that all of them are wrong. Especially if the people promoting the "conspiracy" are a good number of highly trained experts commenting on something within their field, as many epidemiologists and public health officials on social media are.
Numbers are artificially low across the board because, although lab tests are (as far as I know) consistently reported, self-report is inaccurate. Large amounts of people believe that Covid is a hoax, so they won't report their cases. Among those who aren't in denial, only a fraction will actually report their cases, whether because they don't know they should or because of access issues.
Additionally, I've been seeing larger and larger numbers of anecdotal reports that local governments (especially right-leaning ones) are suppressing numbers. Whether that's because they're too swamped to accurately report, or because they're deliberately trying to make us "return to normal" so the economy doesn't have to be restructured, I don't know.
What I do know is that Richmond is a relatively progressive oasis among the surrounding counties. Henrico, Hanover, and Chesterfield residents aren't politically uniform, but their representatives are overwhelmingly Republican, sometimes very right-wing Republicans.
Personally, I think it has to do with the way Covid denial and number suppression happens on a political level. I don't think it's a coincidence that the more conservative counties are touting lower numbers: it fits with their agenda.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvfck6 wrote

> I don't think it's a coincidence that the more conservative counties are touting lower numbers: it fits with their agenda.

Although the CDC this week left the main counties that have a higher rate in the Southwest of the state. But politics is always going to get into things.

Problem is, each time you get covid, more organs, etc., inside usually get damaged, so we are going to see a lot of problems down the line.

Solid Source: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/covid-reinfections-and-long-covid
and an earlier article
https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-reinfection-red-flag

If you need to find out who Eric Topol is, he is on wikipedia.

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EurydiceSpeaks t1_ixwm3aq wrote

Thanks for the resource! I'm making the transition between KN95 masks and N95 respirators at present. My only reservation about the article is that people will see his summary of the numbers on how effective current intramuscular mRNA vaccines are against *Omicron* specifically and oversimplify it down to "vaccines are useless!" But then again, most of the people likely to do that probably aren't reading the Substack of a cardiologist-turned-researcher. I don't know. Fingers crossed about the nasal vaccines, though.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixz835h wrote

Most people are in their own bubble, news wise.

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raindeerpie t1_ixsfpiv wrote

this isn't really something you need to worry about anymore.

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pecansforall t1_ixrzkkj wrote

Wait. Didn't President Biden proclaim recently that Covid was over? Perhaps he was mistaken?

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dweeeebus t1_ixs6v2d wrote

He said the pandemic was over. Which it is. Covid is endemic now.

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Ashbin OP t1_ixvgo5h wrote

Open mouth, insert foot on that one.

Edit: I think he said it thinking it would help the mid-terms. And at least we did get less crazies in office than we thought we were...

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