Submitted by MistWeaver80 t3_zdakan in science
I love a good zoonotic dissease darling! dips pangolin scales into bat poop and eats
We should still shoot for universal vaccination, but what this result suggests is that eradication was probably never in the cards. If there's a pool of mammals for it to live in, it can always jump back to humans at some later time, even if we'd achieved universal vaccination when we should have.
Not digging the title of this post. There were cases in November 2019. I get the feeling OP is a "Little Pink."
November and December of 2019 were wild. I remember reading back in December so many posts of a possible contagious disease spreading in China and the government trying to suppress it which brought about so many rumors online about what was really happening.
From my time in China, I was not surprised at the time that something really bad had come out of there. I was always sick for a year and half straight, but COVID OG was much worse than everything I caught while there.
there were suspected cases in november 2019. What this means is that there were admittances showing same symptoms. theres no way to know if it was actually that virus.
True, but can't we use Occam's razor on this one?
Id rather we dont use occam's razor for anything, its a flawed premise that leads to oversimplifications and looking for easy answers rather than truth.
Honest question - there were earlier reports of covid being identified in Sep or Oct 2019 in Milan and some other places. Has that been refuted now?
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201115/covid_19_circulated_in_italy_earlier_than_thought
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And to complicate things even further, there were also several predecessor variants prior to December 2019.
https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/38/8/3046/6257226?login=false
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I read an article about COVID coming from the international Army worldchampionship in autumn 2019 in wuhan from where IT spread all over the Planet. Famously with a Superspreader Event in a soccer Game in Bergamo....
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we didnt sequence the virus so we dont know if it was this virus or something with same symptoms.
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The article and the title given in reddit don't appear to line up.
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“We’ve investigated ourselves and found no wrong doing!”
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What’s the source of this? I thought it was a fact that satellite images saw Wuhan hospital parking lots were full in sept 2019.
It all is coming back to Randy Marsh and Mickey Mouse.
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>a new study indicates the virus is still highly transmissible between mammals.
Has it been transmissible in non-mammals?
Non-mammals aren’t susceptible to COVID-19, no.
You won’t find the virus in birds, reptiles, amphibians, or invertebrates.
>You won’t find the virus in birds, reptiles, amphibians, or invertebrates.
Didn't think so but I might have missed something. Vets told me to keep my bird inside and away from windows but that was because of bird flu not Covid.
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Other Scientists believe it was created in the Wuhan laboratory.
Scientists do not believe bats first transmitted SAR-CoV-2 to humans. The paper DOES NOT SAY THAT. The paper looked at the ability of cross-species infectivity.
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“It would be dangerous to do experiments where we reinfected bats with human viral strains, so our computer-based simulations offered a much safer alternative,”
Yeah, you wouldn't want to do THAT! Might escape and cause a pandemic.
They have to stop this already. The jig is up.
So do we need bats to like have a good ecosystem? Or are they kinda like deer or wolves where they need to have their population controlled?
Bats are cool. Little virus factories, but otherwise cool.
https://blog.nwf.org/2013/10/10-reasons-you-should-love-bats/
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Bats do play a role in the ecosystem, i wouldnt suggest exterminating them. unlike mosquitos, those we can destroy.
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We need bats, deer, and wolves to have a good ecosystem. And many animals besides.
Well I didn't mean that we currently are making those animals go extinct. But in many places people hunt deer and wolves and also keep them out of their town as much as possible to protect the other wildlife. Currently there were about 30 cows that mysteriously died and no one knows how but doesn't look like wolves. So I should've worded what I meant differently. So I didn't know if the virus being traced to them was going to make scientists start thinking hmm maybe we need to control the population or whatever to get them to not spread viruses to us or other animals. I'm not a scientist idk if that's even how they would do it. Was just inquiring to see if someone else did. I'm a math nerd so
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Except that no one has shown that bats were the actual vector in Wuhan. The fact that a source reservoir was not been identified also throws into question that the “market” was the site of the outbreak. The presence of a lab in Wuhan, doing gain of function research on the Covid virus, is the most logical source of the virus. Occum’s Razor
That’s not how Occam’s razor works.
> That’s not how Occam’s razor works.
Perhaps, but there is interesting information on the goings on of the Wuhan lab at the time.
https://www.propublica.org/article/senate-report-covid-19-origin-wuhan-lab
I hope you read the update to that article because they walked back a lot of those claims.
> is the most logical source of the virus. Occum’s Razo
The misunderstood AND misspelled cliche is the cherry on top of this nonsensical comment
I think you need to read the article and understand that current working theory is that it was transmitted from bats and the study the article is referring to (which is completely different/has no relevance to the origin of where it came from) bases the study upon that belief/foundation.
The study referred to in the article is about transmissibility between humans and other mammals therefore mentioning that it came from bats is a valid reference to mention when considering the possibility of reinfecting/transmitting to bat population.
>“We were hoping to see really cool adaptive evolution happening as the virus got more used to humans and less used to bats, but we actually saw that there wasn’t a whole lot of change,” said Babbitt. “Because this binding site has not evolved very much, there’s really not much stopping it from transmitting from humans to bats. If you look at the phylogenetic relationships of bats to humans, we’re pretty far apart on the mammalian tree. So it suggests that there would be pretty widespread cross-species infectivity, and the literature has shown there’s been a lot of evidence of that.”
Also the research was computer-simulation generated so it's in theory. It's much better than just literature as a simulation can definitely help model things in real life such as the way cosmic math equations have evolved in regards to black holes and gravity but they are not absolute and it's like trying to grasp at the truth by looking at a shadow of it.
Is it not logical to assume that because SARS had jumped once already in 2002 that a version of it could do the same in 2020?
It obviously could but that doesn't mean it did. Wuhan is a unlikely place for a natural jump to humans and the most likely place for an accidental lab origin.
What makes it unlikely? The area is literally researched for its coronaviruses in the local bat population. Also close contact with the human population
The coronavirus bats tend to live in southern China or Laos and those areas are where the closest genetic relatives to Covid 19 have been found. It is also where SARS occurred. No one in the Wuhan lab has found a nearby close Covid 19 relative.
It is certainly possible that it was a natural spillover event in Wuhan or via farmed animals but Wuhan is not where you would have predicted the next SARS outbreak to occur.
There is no local bat population in Wuhan. the bats in the lab are imported from the southern areas of China.
“Bats first transmitted” or “bat-eating people first contracted”?
This report from the US government disputes the likeliness of covid's source being bats.
https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/report_an_analysis_of_the_origins_of_covid-19_102722.pdf
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"Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. New information, made publicly available and independently verifiable, could change this assessment. However, the hypothesis of a natural zoonotic origin no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt, or the presumption of accuracy."
Wow a bunch of Senate Republicans wrote a "report" on a theory that's politically advantageous to them.
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Virologists.
Obviously the question was posed with a conspiratorial theme in mind, but to be fair, "virologists" do not agree on a common explanation for Covid's existence. If it originated from Wuhan wet markets, we would be able to detect the presence of older variants within market animals, and to my knowledge, none have been found.
I am desperately trying to not be conspiratorial, but here are the facts: A massive outbreak of a bat-based virus occurred in a large Chinese city far away from where any native bat populations could have harbored the virus. There is also zero concrete evidence of the virus jumping from any species to another, all we got was a virus that was off-the-bat good at infecting humans, which is not normal when compared to literally every outbreak in human history.
While not evidence, but instead a massive red flag, is the fact that this outbreak, of a bat-based virus, happened in THE city with an extremely well funded VIROLOGY LAB THAT STUDIES BAT VIRUSES. And, iirc, right after the outbreak occurred, there was news spreading around of a lot of discord and chaos around the Wuhan lab prior to the outbreak. Not evidence, just... context.
I don't care about the politics of this, but, due to the varying accounts of what happened on both sides, combined with the sheer lack of concrete evidence of how Covid came to be, combined with the fact that the leak originated from an area with an extremely advanced virology lab, I don't think its very conspiratorial to think that it was, to some degree, man-made.
Its really difficult to disconnect standpoints on these issues from political motivations, but all things considered, the way that I have seen the evidence explained, I really don't see how anybody can disbelieve that it was made in a lab, besides from taking politician's assurance at face value. Please don't cite "the virologists said so", because no, only one side's virologists are saying that, we really don't know what happened for sure and there is simply a lack of evidence surrounding what happened.
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tldr: We don't know what happened, stop acting like we do.
There were also images where said lab in Wuhan had an expedition to bat caves to catch bats for experiments. Based on the photos they were handling the bats bare-handed. So accidental transmission and spread by a lab worker is a very likely option to consider.
All the "evidence" for it being created in a lab is just a bunch of "doesn't it sound suspicious that...".
> I am desperately trying to not be conspiratorial, but here are the facts: A massive outbreak of a bat-based virus occurred in a large Chinese city far away from where any native bat populations could have harbored the virus.
The bats don't live in the city, and it doesn't really matter where they live, as they're caught and sold in a wet market, which is the perfect breeding ground for spillover events. Epidemiologists and virologists have warned China about this again and again, saying that it's only a matter of time before we have another SARS.
> There is also zero concrete evidence of the virus jumping from any species to another, all we got was a virus that was off-the-bat good at infecting humans, which is not normal when compared to literally every outbreak in human history.
What? There are plenty of viruses that jump straight from bat to human (rabies, Marburg, Ebola, Nipah). Then others that are great at killing us after going through a second species (SARS, MERS, Hendra). And again: wet markets. They couldn't be better designed to create the conditions for this to occur.
And I would like to remind you that it took 14 years to conclusively identify where SARS originated.
There is nothing special about SARS-CoV-2. Really, the only strange thing about COVID-19 is that it took this long for it to happen again.
If the origin of the outbreak was the wet markets from infected imported bats, we would be able to detect earlier versions of the virus within market animals that should have spread around prior to it jumping to humans. To my knowledge, there is just no evidence of its history in the markets. Yes, viruses can jump species, but it takes time and we should be able to see its history. The lack of information and evidence here is apparently enough for a lot of virologists to doubt Covid's origins.
I don't think that virologists would be debating the origins of Covid as heavily as they are if the situation was really as clear and simple as you make it out to be. If you claim to have an understanding, you may be coming to that conclusion with valid points, but you are ignoring many factors and the arguments surrounding them. We don't know what happened.
I beg to differ: Some virologists. Other virologists don‘t. It‘s not like climate change where 99 % of scientists are in agreement.
No. Virologists know that we dont know where it originated from. Pseudovirologists with an agenda online however are certain they know.
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I mean it’s happened before with SARS so why wouldn’t it happen again?
Id like to point out that conspiracy theory does not automatically mean false. Watergate was a conspiracy theory. We know it was true.
How many virologists do you know?
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If the virus wasn't from a lab and other countries were not in on it, then why did they have the same stance of denial? Why did a few of them even kill reporters and whistle blowers? Why did they let the virus spread? You got the pres of the US denying it to the very end. It's a world wide pandemic and everyone's denying it together. Hmm. Nothing suspicious at all
What the hell are you even talking about?
Why did Russia throw doctors out of buildings? Why did China kill their initial whistle blowers on the matter trying to identify a new virus? Why did Brazil also deny covid existed. Were you guys not in the US when all of the republicans were denying the validity of covid?
Its hard to believe that a virus from an animal that we lived with for thousands of years would suddenly and very rapidly cause a global pandamic. Something is not right here.
Why? This has happened throughout history.
Not like this. In history it was an animal virus infecting a human with similar virus and something called antigenic shift occurred in which the virus particles intermingled and formed a novel virus never before seen. This new virus would have the ability to infect that animal plus humans. This is different bc it seemingly infects ALL mammals.
>In history it was an animal virus infecting a human with similar virus and something called antigenic shift occurred in which the virus particles intermingled and formed a novel virus never before seen.
That is not true at all. Birds and humans can get bird flu for example.
It's not the least bit hard to believe.
Does SARS ring a bell? HIV? Influenza?
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That's like two animal vectors total. Covid 19 is multi species.
Just HIV is two different animal vectors (and has spilled over from ape/monkey to humans at least a dozen different times). Influenza, like SARS-CoV-2, can infect pretty much any mammal, which is the reason we have the diversity of strains that we do. SARS passed from bats to civets before passing to humans.
Hendra. Marburg. Ebola. Etc.
Influenza has different strains. Swine flu, bird flu etc. When it spills over to other animals in antigenic shift is a once in 100 year event. Think Spanish flu. And virologists would say we are actually due for a similar event to occur for influenza specifically. That Spanish flu didn't have multi animal vectors. Swine plus humans. Questionable avian. Not like covid 19 at all.
If a deer has the flu, Hunter John who kills it typically doesn't get deer flu. And if he does, it typically doesn't spread beyond Hunter John. We are bathed in viruses everyday. There are phages for everything like plants and bacteria. Whether we have the receptors for the virus to incorporate into our cells is what determines if we get sick.
Let me be clear. We are talking about a cold virus that jumps into all mammal species. I'm not saying that covid 19 is lab created. I'm saying it doesn't behave like a cold virus and you and I should have some degree of skepticism about a bat origin
To be fair, HIV was because some idiot fucked a monkey.
No it wasn't.
oh yeah, sure, he claimed he ate the brain instead of had sex. Like anyone believed him.
This is inductive reasoning
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Oh they found the wild zoonotic origin? I would have thought the whole world would be talking about a revelation like that. Big if true!
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The_Baron___ t1_iz1r0zo wrote
A lot of misinformation circulating early on a post in r/science, you'd think those following this would be a little better at resisting the urge to spread conspiracy theories.
To be clear, this study was intended to see if it was likely Sars-CoV-2 could spread back to bats, even with all of the variants we tried unsuccessfully to avoid. Although they used computer models (to prevent infecting bats, the dangerous alternative) and found it likely can still spread between them.
This would also imply that, like many seasonal illnesses, there is a potential pool of animals to keep the virus circulating if enough humans catch and spread it... An almost guarantee now that the human race has decided to make it a seasonal illness.