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Anustart15 t1_j1e7kaz wrote

For the sake of sparking a little bit of discourse, this does seem like one of those classic cases of taking the worst case scenario, making a few favorable assumptions to make it even worse, and then publishing it as truth.

>“Up to 80% of emperor penguin colonies are projected to be quasi-extinct by 2100 [population declines of more than 90%] with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse gas emissions,” it found.

This sounds pretty bad at first glance, but the only sign of a mechanism behind the extinction is this quote:

>“The emperor penguin relies on ice for breeding,” Lee said. “If it loses its suitable breeding habitat … that can lead to [population] collapses over time.”

Without any other information, this just sounds like they are making a bit of a jump from "the ice will melt" straight to "they won't be able to figure out how to breed without the ice and they will all die"

That being said, there are more than enough good reasons to try to limit global warming, but this feels like a publication that was searching for the most extreme result possible.


A_Dragon t1_j1egqqw wrote

Yeah I would imagine they would just move further inland. It’s not as if there’s something essential about the ice for them other than it allows them to be closer to the water.

If the ice recedes they likely will too. That’s what I would think.


OathOfFeanor t1_j1ezknn wrote

Sometimes entire colonies end up on a melting ice island that is now floating away from land. The result is near extinction of the colony.


redditaccount224488 t1_j1forls wrote

Wait, why? I can see all the offspring from that year dying, but wouldn't the adults eventually jump back in the water and try again next year?


OathOfFeanor t1_j1g9st1 wrote

You're thinking on a small scale

Think about the size of an island, but floating at the speed of an iceberg

By the time the birds are heading to the water, it is over 100km to swim back to the mainland


[deleted] t1_j1g263p wrote

There are things in the deep that even penguins fear