SnooPuppers1978 t1_j2wsv97 wrote
Reply to comment by DuckQueue in COVID-19 vaccines, prior infection reduce transmission of Omicron: Vaccination and boosting, especially when recent, helped to limit the spread of COVID-19 in prisons during the first Omicron wave, according to researchers that examined transmission between people living in the same prison cell. by lolfuys
> You seem to be assuming that the disease will exhaust itself and run out of people to infect
For certain amount of time, hence the waves. There will be smaller amount of population still having the virus, until the virus mutates or immunity wanes enough after which it will start all over again.
After certain amount of time like a year or two years, the total cases amount would be similar in terms of magnitude. They won't be 10x based on 22% efficacy.
Because you were suggesting 7k vs 1 million which is different in magnitudes.
I'm suggesting that difference would probably be less than 2x after 2 years for example. And if I had to guess it would probably be something like 25% difference similarly, if we tried to make our model more comprehensive.
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