Submitted by CertainMiddle2382 t3_10qow6b in singularity
just-a-dreamer- t1_j6rfu75 wrote
I forsee a dramatic expansion of government in the short term as companies lay off workers
As an example, in 1930 only 10% of farms in the USA had electricity, let alone running water. It was not profitable to deliever services to rural areas
Around 1940 80% of farms had electricity. So what happened? Public work programs used the unemployed to do construction and conservation projects all across the USA
AI automation will see dramatic rise of unemployment in the private sector, yet jobs will be made up in public works I think. Anything down to dog attendant.
It will take time to figure out that it makes no sense at all to force people to work when there is no work left to be done.
YobaiYamete t1_j6rht6x wrote
Hopefully we use it to focus on bringing EV charging stations all over, and expanding the rail network etc
wren42 t1_j6sn45b wrote
mainly rail. EV is honestly just an unsustainable money grab that creates more dependence on privately owned infrastructure.
flyblackbox t1_j6snlxt wrote
Do you have any articles or books that explain why they are unsustainable?
SansSanctity t1_j6t0v9w wrote
"The End of The World is Just The Beginning" By Peter Zeihan
Specifically the chapters on energy and manufacturing.
Here's a short clip from JRE if you want a quick summary:
GPT-5entient t1_j6t9cti wrote
I would take anything that Zeihan says with a GIANT grain of salt.
Here he is confidently talking about AI although it is clear he's way out of his depth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jEmIDwqnL4
Also, Zeihan is known to be doing speaking gigs for the oil and gas industry as well. Definitely not an unbiased source.
SansSanctity t1_j6t9li4 wrote
Where do you think he was wrong here?
GPT-5entient t1_j6tcxuu wrote
The way he was describing the current state of AI was completely inaccurate. Talking about if/else statements to describe machine learning models for example.
The part with medical records and blockchain made 0 sense.
All stated super confidently. Some of his conclusions were not completely off mark, but it was clear he has very poor understanding of machine learning. This video made me realize that he is probably bullshitting on many other topics as well. I just don't consider him a serious person at all.
imlaggingsobad t1_j6u3ryr wrote
this is called Gell-Mann Amnesia
GPT-5entient t1_j6umvx5 wrote
Thank you, great concept. In my case, though, the "amnesia" part is not that accurate since this case definitely makes me reconsider everything Zeihan said or will say in the future. But also I was kind of sceptical of Zeihan before so this was just more confirmation that he is, in fact, full of shit.
SansSanctity t1_j6teep5 wrote
I think he's an expert on energy and manufacturing, though as a software developer, I myself have also said to many friends I think he's off the mark about AI/ML. In 2019 he argued we were no where near machines that could "think", which I just believe is incorrect.
Having said that the original question was about EVs and their viability and on that front, I think he's on the mark. We simply don't have the materials or the energy grid to completely transition to EVs this decade, and that will likely get harder. The supply chain for petroleum involves roughly 5-8 countries. The supply chain for the batteries for the EVs involves roughly 50-something countries, and that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations, which is 4-5 times more energy intensive to form than steel.
Surur t1_j6tk440 wrote
Trust me, he's completely wrong about EVs.
For example
> that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations
This is just not true. E.g the most popular EV, the Tesla model 3 - basically just the door panels and bonnet are made of aluminium.
> Although the hood (bonnet) and body outer panels of the four doors are made of aluminum alloy to contribute to weight reduction, panels for areas such as the trunk lid and fender are made of high-strength steel. > Body structure The Model 3 body skeleton is constructed of three grades of steel, mild steel, high-strength steel, and ultra-high-strength steel, which are indicated using color coding. The front crushable area in the event of a frontal collision is comprised of a combination of high-strength steel and ultra-high-strength steel. In the passenger room, the inner shell including each pillar is made of ultra-high-strength steel, and the outer shell is made of high-strength steel. > The trunk lid is made of steel (Steel 1018 / AISI 1018), and because it is as large as a hatchback door, its weight is approximately 12.4 kg, which is considerably heavier than that of the bonnet.
https://www.marklines.com/en/report_all/rep1863_201905
Also:
Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.
GPT-5entient t1_j6tvu9c wrote
>Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.
Yes, this. The few times Zeihan talked about a topic where I would consider myself better informed he was way off, but speaking very confidently. Not unlike ChatGPT, just Zeihan's accuracy is much lower...
Also, he has been doing engagements for oil and gas industry and I think that would add some additional bias regarding EVs and climate change.
He could be right about some things, but I am not able to discern which ones. So my default with him is to take anything he says with a huge grain of salt....
SansSanctity t1_j6tkf4r wrote
Thank you for actually providing a good rejoinder to what I said.
CloneTamSu t1_j6u6bil wrote
So basically ... he's a walking, breathing ChatGPT?
wren42 t1_j6xcaw6 wrote
- Lithium battery production
- Absorbing the ~800 billion additional kwh energy consumption renewably while also converting existing consumption and accounting for growth.
We can't produce and support 300 million EVs in the US alone. It's a dream. We will have to move to more efficient forms of mass transit.
GPT-5entient t1_j6twpdj wrote
Yes, I think this would be a path forward. This really depends on administration though, I can't see GOP abandoning their small government mantra anytime soon (a mantra that will be outright deadly soon). If Dems are in power (quite likely) I can see massive FDR like programs taking place. Maybe financed by value added tax on AI labor.
There is a lot of things we can do instead of an UBI.
WaycoKid1129 t1_j6ui6vm wrote
They had a tree planting service too!
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