Submitted by CertainMiddle2382 t3_10qow6b in singularity
SansSanctity t1_j6t0v9w wrote
Reply to comment by flyblackbox in What is your opinion of what is going to happen between AGI and Singularity. by CertainMiddle2382
"The End of The World is Just The Beginning" By Peter Zeihan
Specifically the chapters on energy and manufacturing.
Here's a short clip from JRE if you want a quick summary:
GPT-5entient t1_j6t9cti wrote
I would take anything that Zeihan says with a GIANT grain of salt.
Here he is confidently talking about AI although it is clear he's way out of his depth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jEmIDwqnL4
Also, Zeihan is known to be doing speaking gigs for the oil and gas industry as well. Definitely not an unbiased source.
SansSanctity t1_j6t9li4 wrote
Where do you think he was wrong here?
GPT-5entient t1_j6tcxuu wrote
The way he was describing the current state of AI was completely inaccurate. Talking about if/else statements to describe machine learning models for example.
The part with medical records and blockchain made 0 sense.
All stated super confidently. Some of his conclusions were not completely off mark, but it was clear he has very poor understanding of machine learning. This video made me realize that he is probably bullshitting on many other topics as well. I just don't consider him a serious person at all.
imlaggingsobad t1_j6u3ryr wrote
this is called Gell-Mann Amnesia
GPT-5entient t1_j6umvx5 wrote
Thank you, great concept. In my case, though, the "amnesia" part is not that accurate since this case definitely makes me reconsider everything Zeihan said or will say in the future. But also I was kind of sceptical of Zeihan before so this was just more confirmation that he is, in fact, full of shit.
SansSanctity t1_j6teep5 wrote
I think he's an expert on energy and manufacturing, though as a software developer, I myself have also said to many friends I think he's off the mark about AI/ML. In 2019 he argued we were no where near machines that could "think", which I just believe is incorrect.
Having said that the original question was about EVs and their viability and on that front, I think he's on the mark. We simply don't have the materials or the energy grid to completely transition to EVs this decade, and that will likely get harder. The supply chain for petroleum involves roughly 5-8 countries. The supply chain for the batteries for the EVs involves roughly 50-something countries, and that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations, which is 4-5 times more energy intensive to form than steel.
Surur t1_j6tk440 wrote
Trust me, he's completely wrong about EVs.
For example
> that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations
This is just not true. E.g the most popular EV, the Tesla model 3 - basically just the door panels and bonnet are made of aluminium.
> Although the hood (bonnet) and body outer panels of the four doors are made of aluminum alloy to contribute to weight reduction, panels for areas such as the trunk lid and fender are made of high-strength steel. > Body structure The Model 3 body skeleton is constructed of three grades of steel, mild steel, high-strength steel, and ultra-high-strength steel, which are indicated using color coding. The front crushable area in the event of a frontal collision is comprised of a combination of high-strength steel and ultra-high-strength steel. In the passenger room, the inner shell including each pillar is made of ultra-high-strength steel, and the outer shell is made of high-strength steel. > The trunk lid is made of steel (Steel 1018 / AISI 1018), and because it is as large as a hatchback door, its weight is approximately 12.4 kg, which is considerably heavier than that of the bonnet.
https://www.marklines.com/en/report_all/rep1863_201905
Also:
Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.
GPT-5entient t1_j6tvu9c wrote
>Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.
Yes, this. The few times Zeihan talked about a topic where I would consider myself better informed he was way off, but speaking very confidently. Not unlike ChatGPT, just Zeihan's accuracy is much lower...
Also, he has been doing engagements for oil and gas industry and I think that would add some additional bias regarding EVs and climate change.
He could be right about some things, but I am not able to discern which ones. So my default with him is to take anything he says with a huge grain of salt....
SansSanctity t1_j6tkf4r wrote
Thank you for actually providing a good rejoinder to what I said.
CloneTamSu t1_j6u6bil wrote
So basically ... he's a walking, breathing ChatGPT?
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