What is your opinion of what is going to happen between AGI and Singularity.

Submitted by CertainMiddle2382 t3_10qow6b in singularity

How long will it take? Is it even unavoidable? Can we have AGI without Singularity?

AI pre AGI is now, we see the disruptions coming in some parts of society.

If we achieve AGI where will the impacts be? In other parts of society? Or will it just be more of the same?

Could we stagnate there with AGI but some other things restraining further progress?

Or in other terms, what challenges will AGI need to overcome first to be able to self improve?

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just-a-dreamer- t1_j6rfu75 wrote

I forsee a dramatic expansion of government in the short term as companies lay off workers

As an example, in 1930 only 10% of farms in the USA had electricity, let alone running water. It was not profitable to deliever services to rural areas

Around 1940 80% of farms had electricity. So what happened? Public work programs used the unemployed to do construction and conservation projects all across the USA

AI automation will see dramatic rise of unemployment in the private sector, yet jobs will be made up in public works I think. Anything down to dog attendant.

It will take time to figure out that it makes no sense at all to force people to work when there is no work left to be done.

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YobaiYamete t1_j6rht6x wrote

Hopefully we use it to focus on bringing EV charging stations all over, and expanding the rail network etc

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wren42 t1_j6sn45b wrote

mainly rail. EV is honestly just an unsustainable money grab that creates more dependence on privately owned infrastructure.

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flyblackbox t1_j6snlxt wrote

Do you have any articles or books that explain why they are unsustainable?

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SansSanctity t1_j6t0v9w wrote

"The End of The World is Just The Beginning" By Peter Zeihan

Specifically the chapters on energy and manufacturing.

Here's a short clip from JRE if you want a quick summary:

https://youtube.com/shorts/y-3srraCGUA?feature=share

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GPT-5entient t1_j6t9cti wrote

I would take anything that Zeihan says with a GIANT grain of salt.

Here he is confidently talking about AI although it is clear he's way out of his depth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jEmIDwqnL4

Also, Zeihan is known to be doing speaking gigs for the oil and gas industry as well. Definitely not an unbiased source.

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SansSanctity t1_j6t9li4 wrote

Where do you think he was wrong here?

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GPT-5entient t1_j6tcxuu wrote

The way he was describing the current state of AI was completely inaccurate. Talking about if/else statements to describe machine learning models for example.

The part with medical records and blockchain made 0 sense.

All stated super confidently. Some of his conclusions were not completely off mark, but it was clear he has very poor understanding of machine learning. This video made me realize that he is probably bullshitting on many other topics as well. I just don't consider him a serious person at all.

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imlaggingsobad t1_j6u3ryr wrote

this is called Gell-Mann Amnesia

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GPT-5entient t1_j6umvx5 wrote

Thank you, great concept. In my case, though, the "amnesia" part is not that accurate since this case definitely makes me reconsider everything Zeihan said or will say in the future. But also I was kind of sceptical of Zeihan before so this was just more confirmation that he is, in fact, full of shit.

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SansSanctity t1_j6teep5 wrote

I think he's an expert on energy and manufacturing, though as a software developer, I myself have also said to many friends I think he's off the mark about AI/ML. In 2019 he argued we were no where near machines that could "think", which I just believe is incorrect.

Having said that the original question was about EVs and their viability and on that front, I think he's on the mark. We simply don't have the materials or the energy grid to completely transition to EVs this decade, and that will likely get harder. The supply chain for petroleum involves roughly 5-8 countries. The supply chain for the batteries for the EVs involves roughly 50-something countries, and that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations, which is 4-5 times more energy intensive to form than steel.

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Surur t1_j6tk440 wrote

Trust me, he's completely wrong about EVs.

For example

> that's not even counting how most EVs are made of aluminum for weight considerations

This is just not true. E.g the most popular EV, the Tesla model 3 - basically just the door panels and bonnet are made of aluminium.

> Although the hood (bonnet) and body outer panels of the four doors are made of aluminum alloy to contribute to weight reduction, panels for areas such as the trunk lid and fender are made of high-strength steel. > Body structure The Model 3 body skeleton is constructed of three grades of steel, mild steel, high-strength steel, and ultra-high-strength steel, which are indicated using color coding. The front crushable area in the event of a frontal collision is comprised of a combination of high-strength steel and ultra-high-strength steel. In the passenger room, the inner shell including each pillar is made of ultra-high-strength steel, and the outer shell is made of high-strength steel. > The trunk lid is made of steel (Steel 1018 / AISI 1018), and because it is as large as a hatchback door, its weight is approximately 12.4 kg, which is considerably heavier than that of the bonnet.

https://www.marklines.com/en/report_all/rep1863_201905

Also:

Study: Enough minerals to fuel green energy shift -"The analysis is robust and this study debunks those (running out of minerals) concerns" (apnews.com)

Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.

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GPT-5entient t1_j6tvu9c wrote

>Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.

Yes, this. The few times Zeihan talked about a topic where I would consider myself better informed he was way off, but speaking very confidently. Not unlike ChatGPT, just Zeihan's accuracy is much lower...

Also, he has been doing engagements for oil and gas industry and I think that would add some additional bias regarding EVs and climate change.

He could be right about some things, but I am not able to discern which ones. So my default with him is to take anything he says with a huge grain of salt....

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SansSanctity t1_j6tkf4r wrote

Thank you for actually providing a good rejoinder to what I said.

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CloneTamSu t1_j6u6bil wrote

So basically ... he's a walking, breathing ChatGPT?

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wren42 t1_j6xcaw6 wrote

  1. Lithium battery production
  2. Absorbing the ~800 billion additional kwh energy consumption renewably while also converting existing consumption and accounting for growth.

We can't produce and support 300 million EVs in the US alone. It's a dream. We will have to move to more efficient forms of mass transit.

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GPT-5entient t1_j6twpdj wrote

Yes, I think this would be a path forward. This really depends on administration though, I can't see GOP abandoning their small government mantra anytime soon (a mantra that will be outright deadly soon). If Dems are in power (quite likely) I can see massive FDR like programs taking place. Maybe financed by value added tax on AI labor.

There is a lot of things we can do instead of an UBI.

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Sh1ner t1_j6rlcvw wrote

This is where I think/guess some time between now and a few years after reaching AGI, its a lot of theory crafting in my opinion

  • Economically, politically, culturally we are in a time of great upheaval. The rich nations know large change is coming and need to implement these new changes whilst starting to lay down the foundations for the rest of the world to eventually follow suit. Immigration, terrorism, hatred towards the rich nations increase as they move significantly forward whilst in comparison the poor nations look like they have stagnated.
  • Energy is the limiting factor for a number of services and products we want. Our energy grids are strained as people will pay the energy cost for having a virtual assistant and using it to improve their lives and corps having more powerful AI that strains grids further. The cost of energy will be high until we get a handle on it.
  • White collar jobs have completely split into two categories, the ones that can be replaced by AI who are on some kind of weak UBI. The others will be working with AI and be generating significant value as time goes on more and more humans can be displaced, meaning the ones that produce large value are the ones who make all the money.
  • Some Blue Collar jobs have been replaced by automation but everyone knows their time is short as job cuts keep coming as efficiency is improved meaning less workers required to do the same amount of work.
  • Computer chips should start on a new trend when it comes to throughput / energy cost as AI is now involved at more levels of chip design. Robotics for consumers will be further teased at but still limited by energy storage.
  • Knowledge started to be pooled together. Think Wikipedia but on steroids
  • Education reform begins outside of government, AI led on a 1 to 1 level for everyone, not just children when they become an adult.
  • Diagnosing of conditions, ailments will start to become automatic with treatment being booked automatically via AI assistants. I can definitely see our life & health will be gamified by our personal assistant.
  • Numerous decision making for our future will be done via democracy on our phones once we have been informed on the subject allowing us to make an informed decision when it comes to the broad strokes. Over time some decision making will shift from democracy to options for the person as systems can now accommodate for more positions.
  • A new design for the modern home. Standardized systems for electrics, plumbing, etc behind panels that are easy to take off built with layers. No more drilling or cutting into a wall for access. New homes will come in a set of standardized sizes. This standardization is the first step for automation within the home and lays the ground work for easier navigation of the consumer robotics to come.

Beyond this point I can't really say. Its too far out there and I think its trying to guess what the future is like before the internet was a thing. It would be very difficult so I won't go any further than that for myself whilst maintaining any kind of accuracy.

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beezlebub33 t1_j6smj59 wrote

> Our energy grids are strained as people will pay the energy cost for having a virtual assistant and using it to improve their lives and corps having more powerful AI that strains grids further

I don't think so. Yes, energy cost is high in many places in the world, but there are places where it is cheap, either because of the government, lack of environmental regulation, and local resources.

Just as tech support has been moved off shore (and is why your tech support person has an Indian accent), running a virtual assistant can be done where it makes sense from an economic point of view. Yes, you will need to have a good data connection, and you have to move servers there, but frankly it's easier and cheaper to ship those servers from China to someplace with cheap electricity than to US or EU.

Expect a new set of countries that host AI server farms, just as there are a set of countries that operate garment manufacturing. R&D will still occur in developed countries, but 'production' will move.

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Ishynethetruth t1_j6t4jhd wrote

Can you explain more about the home because you have home owners who would hate cheap affordable housing. I mean they always talk about the market for a reason ?

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Sh1ner t1_j6tjlbo wrote

It's an inevitablility I think as standardisation solves a lot of problems such as costs, ease of troubleshooting, etc. Most importantly its is the first step to automation. Your right nobody wants inferior housing even if it's cheap. The challenge is to provide quality housing that people want to live in that has this standardisation. It's a big ask, starting with cheap housing then improving scale, quality, etc is the first step. Eventually it will catch on.

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nutidizen t1_j6wuztf wrote

> who would hate cheap affordable housing

what is this conspiracy

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visarga t1_j6uev3y wrote

> Some Blue Collar jobs have been replaced by automation but everyone knows their time is short as job cuts keep coming as efficiency is improved meaning less workers required to do the same amount of work.

Why do you believe there will be the same amount of work? A company will have to compete, AI will raise the bar for everyone. So they have to work harder in order to achieve better quality or more diversity or customisation. When your competition has AI and humans, you are going to be at a disadvantage with just AI.

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Sh1ner t1_j6uju5p wrote

As there is more work to do that we ain't doing right now. Simply because other tasks take precedence.
 
If all my tasks that I want to do for a better life were solved for me over night. I simply would take upon a new set of tasks that would improve my life further. Same applies to societies.

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Surur t1_j6raa8a wrote

Because it will take a special effort to make an ASI (more resources) it will not happen by accident. So it should be possible to have AGI and not ASI. But it should take a specific agreement and a lot of cooperation from everyone around the world, which seems unlikely.

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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j6rf1nt wrote

>Because it will take a special effort to make an ASI (more resources) it will not happen by accident.

Resources aren't accidental but what comes out of them pretty much is.

>So it should be possible to have AGI and not ASI.

Anything is possible but I wonder why you choose to talk about this possibility and not about the possibility of the Moon being cheese instead.

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Surur t1_j6rfaex wrote

> not about the possibility of the Moon being cheese instead.

Lol. Good point.

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TheSecretAgenda t1_j6rcerc wrote

Mass unemployment and social instability. High crime, riots, UBI, authoritarian states.

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Surur t1_j6rdeb4 wrote

AGIs may come slowly if they are very resource-intensive. Say it costs $200 per day to run a brain-equivalent and massive server farms then it may not take over as fast as one would expect.

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Bierculles t1_j6ruxs3 wrote

$200 a day for an AGI would be so dirt cheap comparatively that it would annihilate the entire jobmarket overnight. One AGI can replace dozens of people, if not much more. Even if the hardware alone costs $50k and the upkeep is $1000 a day for your own AGI, it would still be considered dirtcheap.

You need to consider that an AI "thinks" vastly faster than us in pretty much every conceivable way, i am talking a factor of 1000 times faster here, minimum. It could replace every single employee in a bank for example and it would be unbelievably more efficient at doing the work than even the best human team of workers in the history of banking.

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Surur t1_j6rxsqb wrote

> You need to consider that an AI "thinks" vastly faster than us in pretty much every conceivable way, i am talking a factor of 1000 times faster here, minimum. It could replace every single employee in a bank for example and it would be unbelievably more efficient at doing the work than even the best human team of workers in the history of banking.

I think you are thinking of an ASI while I am thinking of an AGI.

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drekmonger t1_j6tcb47 wrote

I think you're scaling AGI differently. It's human-level intelligence, but with all the advantages of a computational platform.

ASI is beyond human comprehension. It's a transcendent AI, a digital god, not ChatGPT+sapience.

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TheSecretAgenda t1_j6rdyyk wrote

Like all computing the price will come down.

Did you mean $200K? $200 doesn't seem like much at all.

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Surur t1_j6re9qq wrote

I mean $200 per day per brain, so it would not replace workers earning less per day (say in Indonesia).

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TheSecretAgenda t1_j6rf0u3 wrote

One AI could run an entire factory though that would make it price competitive.

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Surur t1_j6rf8v0 wrote

Sure it could replace the manager, but it would require a super-human AI to replace all the workers.

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TheSecretAgenda t1_j6rg4nu wrote

Computers are very fast and can multitask.

I guess we'll see in the not-too-distant future.

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arisalexis t1_j6skssv wrote

actually chatgpt can replace any marketing copyrgither now for $40/month

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DukkyDrake t1_j6uo5yy wrote

>High crime, riots

You might be forgetting that nightwatchman and soldier is just another job to be automated. There is no doubt that technological unemployment will be accompanied by technological security. Imagine a pitiless nightwatchman on every street corner or doorstep 24/7/365. The crime rate of a panopticon society is the dream of every citizen.

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elonmusk12345_ t1_j6swlu3 wrote

I think it's impossible to predict. But what is certainty is that things will be weird.

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kpickyiv t1_j6sl62w wrote

The rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer.

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turbospeedsc t1_j6v00ek wrote

This will be it. at least in our lifetime and our kids.

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Visual_Ad_8202 t1_j6sq330 wrote

It really depends. A few people have correctly pointed that massive amounts of investment dollars are leaving the space as Boomers move their money into safe shit like TBills. Ultimately this means that unless AGI is a natural progression from where we are, it highly unlikely we will see it in our lifetimes.
Without the vast amounts of capital funding that has been available to this point, the advance of technologies will slow and the probability of revolutions or massive breakthroughs will diminish.

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Surur t1_j6tl1sg wrote

> A few people have correctly pointed that massive amounts of investment dollars are leaving the space as Boomers move their money into safe shit like TBills.

"A few people" being Zeihan, who's pretty stupid.

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DinosaurHoax t1_j6u9lmp wrote

You still have large corporations like Microsoft, Amazon, and other tech companies that see this as a cash cow in the future. Just because boomers get more conservative with there money doesn't mean business investment won't be directed towards AI. These are blue chip companies that, as investments go, are deemed safe. I think the past year has been a tipping point for the technology, where it was a fringe technology that insiders saw promise in, to a mainstream phenomenon that has captured the public's imagination. I think investment will continue to trend upward.

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SlackerNinja717 t1_j6rz2wz wrote

I do not think we will see the unemployment numbers from AI and Automation to begin creeping up for another few decades, but they inevitably will, and then there will probably be a decade of horrific unemployment, and then governments will have to start buying out certain highly automated sectors or product manufacturing or service in order to afford a UBI, basically a gradual shift to a hybrid communist/free market economy - that's the only way I see a UBI being feasible. Probably large government owned housing developments, at some point.

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fastinguy11 t1_j6si34m wrote

I think you are being conservative when you say it will take decades for automation to significantly displace workers.

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imlaggingsobad t1_j6u50y8 wrote

a few decades, so 30 years? No, not a chance. We'll have a powerful general AI that can do the majority of knowledge tasks in just 5-7 years.

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SlackerNinja717 t1_j6umip3 wrote

I think folks underestimate modern society's demand for devices and distractions. You may be right, but there is usually far more nuance to most jobs than any AI on the horizon is able to tackle. I think production per capita will keep going up for a long time before the overall unemployment rate starts going down.

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Redditing-Dutchman t1_j6rcazp wrote

Really hard to say if AGI is even possible with today's tech. We might get seemingly very close (a much more human like chatbot for example) but the jump from 99 to 100% might take something special. Maybe quantum computers, or maybe we can grown and connect actual specialised brains in the future, thus not needing to invent AGI trough software at all.

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jalle007 t1_j6rgqhg wrote

How fucking old are you ?

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