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Mortal-Region t1_j9bjuue wrote

Not only is work progressing, but it could best be described as a mad rush. IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and others are all working on the problem, approaching it from slightly different angles. Anyone of them might report a breakthrough at any moment.


fluffy_assassins t1_j9blhv3 wrote

This. The lack of news relevant to people outside the industry does not constitute a lack of news


fluffy_assassins t1_j9blkis wrote

Kind of like nuclear fusion. Or AI before ChatGPT.


hydraofwar t1_j9bnaxq wrote

AI, nuclear fusion and quantum computing the trinity of the futuristic society


Practical-Mix-4332 t1_j9bpi0g wrote

Also cures for cancer, heart disease, and aging.


ilive12 t1_j9cco88 wrote

It's looking like we may be able to find the cure for aging even without even needing the power of AI:

More or less, the method is already discovered, now it's about testing and making sure the procedure doesn't do more harm than good (without very careful application can easily lead to things like tumors). They have a good handle on reversing aging in mice, they are moving to doing it in monkeys next. Very possible the first person to live to 150 is alive today.


superluminary t1_j9cj0t8 wrote

Slight over exaggeration here. In one study they extended mouse life by six weeks. In another they made mice appear to age more quickly and were then able to reverse some of the damage they caused. There’s a way to go.


fluffy_assassins t1_j9bo1io wrote

Yeah, exactly. I almost edited it to say something like that.

Also the Trinity of remote technologies, probably.

I imagine AI will always be cloud based because there's so much more efficient and dedicated competing per available. Quantum computing will probably also always be remote because of the cooling requirements.

Nuclear fusion? We already have it. Look up. Just, remote access to it.


SlowCrates t1_j9bp3p6 wrote

Fusion and quantum computing are the difference between Terminator's Skynet and having new digital overlords.


fluffy_assassins t1_j9bqyye wrote

That's a difference between skynet and digital overlords?


SlowCrates t1_j9c5hz2 wrote

Yeah, Skynet wasn't so superior that it owned the human race. Its machines were not particular clever, and it made the mistake of leaving its central core vulnerable. Those do not sound like the traits of a super intelligence. More like general intelligence geared heavily toward strategic military power. I think of a super intelligence as having limitless power, and having fusion and quantum computing from the start gives a potential AI a huge leg up.


IcebergSlimFast t1_j9c5pm4 wrote

I’m not sure why OP has been hearing “basically nothing” - I’m not anywhere near that field, but I’ve been seeing updates on new breakthroughs cross my newsfeed at least 1-2 times per month.


civilrunner t1_j9d4705 wrote

I mean, they've been reporting a lot of major breakthroughs recently it's just that it takes time and steady advances (breakthroughs) for it to be ready and it's also not something 99% of people will regularly interact with. It'll be more like cloud computing and servers.


blove135 t1_j9cst8u wrote

Same thing I heard 10 years ago. Any day now. Probably just two more weeks.


RavenWolf1 t1_j9bnh2u wrote

Hype died but progress is still happening.


__ingeniare__ t1_j9ei5el wrote

It's kind of like what happened with AI, most people don't care about it until they have something tangible to play with, and then it seems like it just came out or nowhere. It will probably be a while until quantum computing affects the everyday person though.


MrEloi t1_j9bp6js wrote

If Google are working on it, it will already be very advanced - but hidden in a back room.

They won't launch any products using the technology, just in case it disrupts their search income.

However, one day someone else will launch a related product .. and then Google will set up an emergency competitive product launch in Paris.

Google will spend at least $100 on this launch and will not actually show anything interesting.


Z8S9 t1_j9e0onh wrote

Well, $100 isn’t a big deal to me so I can’t imagine it’s a big deal for Google


MrEloi t1_j9ean9g wrote

Well, it seems that they had a budget of around $100 for the Paris launch of their Bard AI.


Iffykindofguy t1_j9bq1y8 wrote

Its bigger than ever fam youre just not paying attention


TemetN t1_j9c201w wrote

We're waiting basically. At this point there are multiple competitive approaches, and we're attempting to see which one is most easily scalable and fault tolerant. Once an approach is found that's both, it'll likely explode into more prominence. For now however, expect the continued rollout of normal roadmaps such as IBMs while waiting for a breakthrough.


Nalmyth t1_j9ev3zy wrote

Finally quantum is getting cheaper.

You can run tensorflow-quantum on the Qiskit (IBM) backend.

They provide 27 qubits, or 134,217,728 states. It’s about the speed of a Nvidia 3080 for now 🤔

However there’s these guys who plan to release a 100q supercomputer using room temperature lasers to the public before end of this year. (Saas)


SoylentRox t1_j9bqmp7 wrote

As I understand it:

(1) current quantum computers are useless for AI so far (not enough qbits)

(2) they are useful for limited types of problems.

AI is useful for everything. So there's a lot more interest in it.

Like a lot of things, the actual tech order is probably:

high perf computers -> narrow AI -> AGI -> self replicating robots -> nanotechnology -> quantum computers

That is, we will not have large and useful quantum computers until we have nanotechnology, and we can't afford that without self replicating robots, and we can't make that without AGI, and so on.


turnip_burrito t1_j9bx76r wrote

Wait, why are quantum computers only possible after AGI? Researchers are doing fine without it so far, from my bystander view.


SoylentRox t1_j9bz1xs wrote

Because the current ones cost a fortune and have almost no qbits, making them useless for most problems. There are nasty scaling laws that make adding more qbits nonlinearly harder.


turnip_burrito t1_j9bz6pt wrote

But the number of qubits is increasing rapidly, I thought?


SoylentRox t1_j9bzbhm wrote

It is not, and the number needed to do useful things like crack encryption is very far away.


turnip_burrito t1_j9bzfd6 wrote

I see. How many orders of magnitude more will be needed?

Edit: A quick Google search returns 10^8 over 1 hour for breaking AES 256. Right now we're at 10^2 and I don't know how long it stays coherent (looks like around 10^-4 seconds). I see what you mean now for encryption.

How much do you need for quantum chemistry simulations? Quick Googlr search says the numbers are far lower to be useful there. Maybe 10^2 or 10^3 order of magnitude?


SoylentRox t1_j9c5lgd wrote

Also how useful is quantum chemistry.

You can probably just "memorize the rules" with a neural network, the way protein folding was solved, and not actually simulate the quantum chemistry. This is drastically faster and almost as accurate.

This means you just do a bunch of chemistry experiments, or load in the data from already performed experiments, and figure out the rules so you can predict the experiments you didn't perform. Neural networks can already learn most possible functions so they can approximate what a quantum chemistry sim would theoretically be exact for.

And the approximations can be potentially just as accurate : remember your input data has finite resolution. (significant figures)


Sigma_Atheist t1_j9c1voq wrote

As far as I'm aware, there is no known quantum algorithm that could break AES-256.

Your quantum chemistry simulation qubit estimate seems about right. But that's also a boring use case. You'll only make money off of chemistry researchers.


mr_ludd t1_j9cf4s6 wrote

> there is no known quantum algorithm that could break AES-256.

So far...


MultiverseOfSanity OP t1_j9dwwt7 wrote

Hmm, growing up, I always thought AGI would require quantum computing. Guess I was wrong.


SoylentRox t1_j9dx7nz wrote

I thought it would require a lot of things. But here we are.

Open source devs have re-created the core of an LLM like GPT-3 (it's what powers chatGPT and BingChat) in a few thousand lines of code.

It's really not that complicated.

And yet this one repeated algorithm and a few tricks in training and we can get like 50% of human intelligence right there.


Bluemoo25 t1_j9dw9bv wrote

Scientists recently used the quantum computers at Google to prove at the quantum level there is gravity and related Einsteins theory of relativity to quantum mechanics and created a holographic wormhole.


turnip_burrito t1_j9eh8m3 wrote

> prove at the quantum level there is gravity

Do you have a reference link for me to read? This sounds interesting.


GoldenRain t1_j9e95pi wrote

The IBM quantum roadmap is on point.

  • 2019 - 27 qubits

  • 2020 - 65 qubits

  • 2021 - 127 qubits

  • 2022 - 433 qubits

  • 2023 - 1127 qubits.

So far the roadmap has been completely accurate and there has been astonishing progress.


ihateshadylandlords t1_j9bucch wrote

Still in the lab as far as it goes for the average consumer. But hopefully that changes over the next decade and it can result in tangible benefits for the average person.


reallyfunhuh t1_j9ch2up wrote

A wormhole was created not so long ago with Google's quantum computer. Just with that I think quantum computing is doing fine


MultiverseOfSanity OP t1_j9chh4a wrote

Pretty sure I would've heard about a wormhole.


turnip_burrito t1_j9cmw2i wrote

It was a quantum system that was mathematically equivalent to a wormhole, but wasn't a wormhole that exists in our 4-D spacetime. Relates to the topic of AdS-CFT correspondence.


ZaxLofful t1_j9cz3hi wrote

As I said before, you just aren’t listening; you are expecting that every possible advancement comes to you on a golden platter…

They very much did crate a quantum wormhole….


Bakagami- t1_j9d8ptx wrote

They did not create a wormhole, they simulated one with a mathematical model using a quantum computer.


ZaxLofful t1_j9ddo20 wrote

They did much more than that good sir…Using quantum entanglement they created a quantum wormhole.

Entangling two sets of seven qbits separately, they were able to send data between the two sets; even tho the two sets of qubits never interacted with each other.

This is called a quantum wormhole because the two disjointed sets were able to send information to one another without interacting on the physical plane of existence.

In other word using quantum mechanics they were able to teleport information, which is what a wormholes is.

It’s not a wormhole that someone or something in the physical dimension, that we exist in as humans, could enter…


PIPPIPPIPPIPPIP555 t1_j9eyo8u wrote

They are working on it there is a lot of research on it and they created a quantum gate that was so fast that the noise from the system did not disturb it in high temperature


norbertus t1_j9flqy6 wrote

They're still viable, but they'll never be practical in the sense that you will be using one for gaming or word processing.

It's not "the next step" in computer technology generally, it's a new technique for very niche applications like advanced physical simulations and cryptography.


ZaxLofful t1_j9cyvll wrote

Then you just aren’t listening….


ghostfuckbuddy t1_j9e7hsb wrote

It was always a long way away. It's a hardware problem, trying to implement some of the most delicate controls ever, at the coldest temperatures ever. Just enough to rotate qubits but not enough to decohere them. Then as you scale up, you run into more problems with correlated errors as qubits start interfering with each other. The algorithms have already been developed, for the most part. All the theorists are just waiting for the manufacturing to catch up. Probably another 10-20 years before you see serious industrial applications.


20parsecs t1_j9g8tjf wrote

It’s humanities biggest threat and it’s hiding in the shadows. All the distractions are meant to keep us focused over there while general AI coupled with quantum computing grows in power. If it’s being used in a nefarious manner we are in trouble if not already done.


Sigma_Atheist t1_j9bxzq7 wrote

People realized that they're no good for anything.