People are interested in sports, gossip, politics and maybe seven other things. AI is never one of them. My friend Fred says that the early internet was like that too. IMO ChatGPT is like the Java applets of those days. Now obsolete because of better technology. However, the number of internet users doubled each year back then. According to what I have read online ChatGPT has 100 million daily users. This is much more than the number of web users in the beginning of the internet.

So Fred says that we will get a 10x boost by EOY in performance. It could come from model compression or something else. If Bard, Claude, Ernie, and the other bots are any good, we could expect a billion daily AI users. Fred wants to do a code generation startup in one programming language. It's a niche product, but he says that we can have a million users. Obviously there's companies who can do the same, but on the other hand Twitter started out like a basic app and look where it is now.