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sticky_symbols t1_j9qsmt6 wrote

Wow. I just don't get it.

This was done before chatGPT and most people hadn't used gpt 3 before that.

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[deleted] t1_j9qt3c3 wrote

[deleted]

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CubeFlipper t1_j9s21ls wrote

At this point I'm inclined to think that if AGI actually did arrive in 2025 and this poll was conducted again in 2026, people would still give it roughly the same timeframe.

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Safe_Indication_6829 t1_j9rqbtv wrote

ChatGPT is a turning point, I think, because the average person can see firsthand it's effects. people pulled the fire alarm back in the GPT-3 days (only 3 years ago, if you believe that) but now even Vox is writing about AI alignment issues

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j9rh2go wrote

>This was done before chatGPT

GPT3 is very similar to ChatGPT, to my knowledge, and that had been out since 2020, 2 years before the survey.

>most people hadn't used gpt 3 before that.

The people who were surveyed were researchers and experts who most likely had familiarity with GPT3.

I don't really think the advent of ChatGPT would have shortened timelines all that much had the survey been conducted after it was released, if I'm being honest.

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sticky_symbols t1_j9w3kze wrote

The thing about chatGPT is that everyone talked about it and tried it. I and most ML folks hadn't tried GPT3

Everyone I know of was pretty shocked at how good GPT3 is. It did change timelines in the folks I know of, including the ones that think about timelines a lot as part of their jobs.

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DukkyDrake t1_j9rq1g6 wrote

The thing they're predicting has nothing to do with anything related to GPT.

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sticky_symbols t1_j9w3cav wrote

A lot of people who think about this a lot think it does. LLMs seem like they may play an important role in creating genuine general intelligence. But of course they would need many additions.

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