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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j9rh2go wrote

Reply to comment by sticky_symbols in New agi poll says there is 50% chance of it happening by 2059. Thoughts? by possiblybaldman

>This was done before chatGPT

GPT3 is very similar to ChatGPT, to my knowledge, and that had been out since 2020, 2 years before the survey.

>most people hadn't used gpt 3 before that.

The people who were surveyed were researchers and experts who most likely had familiarity with GPT3.

I don't really think the advent of ChatGPT would have shortened timelines all that much had the survey been conducted after it was released, if I'm being honest.

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sticky_symbols t1_j9w3kze wrote

The thing about chatGPT is that everyone talked about it and tried it. I and most ML folks hadn't tried GPT3

Everyone I know of was pretty shocked at how good GPT3 is. It did change timelines in the folks I know of, including the ones that think about timelines a lot as part of their jobs.

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