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sumane12 t1_j7th7xg wrote

Reply to comment by hucktard in Based on what we've seen in the last couple years, what are your thoughts on the likelihood of a hard takeoff scenario? by bloxxed

I'm of a similar mind. We already have narrow super intelligent AI, I don't think a godlike super AI will appear instantly either, but I do think that the first AGI will be ASI. How can it not? Speed of light thinking, ability to search the web instantly, no need to eat or sleep, ability to copy itself multiple times to work on multiple tasks. I think a fast takeoff is inevitable, I mean we already have a super intelligent assistant in the form of ChatGPT, that will only improve.

That being said, I don't think the recursive self improvement will be immediate, I think it will be quick, but will still take a few years from AGI to see and end to human invention and the godlike AI that we think will be the result. It's also not clear to me at what point we will merge with AI, and what will be the outcome of that, it may well be that we become the ASI.

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BenjaminHamnett t1_j7uhjmm wrote

I always assumed some one or cyborg society would merge with the AI. It may come down to arbitrary semantics to describe what happens.

I always assumed a combined cyborg hive would always be stronger than AI alone. The last human creators would have more incentive and more capability than (relatively) detached programmers, if there could even be such a thing, considering anyone reading this today is already essentially a cyborg.

That AI is writing code already is what skews the odds a bit now. it becomes a bit more likely someone will give a detached AI enough computing power to use evolutionary programming to bootstrap a sci-fi singularity. I still think this is less likely than a neural implant cyborg hive mind singularity, but the odds are approaching 50:50, where before I thought it was more like 90:10 to be cyborg based instead of straight hardware.

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