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duffmanhb t1_j8dp0eb wrote

I don't think he understands how S Curves work. We had a major breakthrough when we figured out how to convert micro transistors to work as analogue transistors instead of binary... Which allowed us to pick up where we left off in the 60s

However, all this explosion of growth will probably slow down once the low hanging fruit is all achieved after this breakthrough, and we'll likely top off for a while until we get another breakthrough.

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magnets-are-magic t1_j8er2rt wrote

Low hanging fruit has barely been touched. Artists, writers, small businesses, mega corps, etc etc are just started to get their hands on these new tools. Even if it’s an S curve we’re just barely getting started.

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duffmanhb t1_j8erc4s wrote

Oh of course... There is still a lot. This breakthrough will probably pay off drastically for the next 10 years. We still have all the fine tuning benefits, as well as squeezing out the benefits of scale. Tons and tons of fruit hanging for a while.

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EllaBellCD t1_j8iw5l0 wrote

The foundations of the low hanging fruit are there though. I think the next 3 - 5 years will be refinement and specialization.

It will become a lot more specialized and practical in the day to day, particularly for businesses.

People expecting it to create a full coherent movie out of thin air are off the mark (in the short term).

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Borrowedshorts t1_j8dx7i2 wrote

Computation and AI haven't demonstrated S curves, but have always been exponential. If we look at some of the effects, they may be S curves. If we look at Siri, there was a massive and rapid adoption of that, but has since tapered off. I suspect job displacement will show an S curve. But computation itself has demonstrated exponential progress for a very long time, and I doubt that slows anytime soon.

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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j8e4rvs wrote

If complexity is an S-curve it'll start tapering off around 14 billion years from now.

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