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Sad_Laugh_8337 t1_j7v40ig wrote

Crazy, and will only be improved over time. AI tools rapidly advancing faster than people even know. Tech is great but sadly I think this will blindside everyone.

Beware to all UX/UI designers -- AI is coming for your jobs and mine as well (software dev). It might look silly now (it doesn't to me) but a year is a HUGE amount of time for AI to develop -- it will replace us its a guarantee.

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boredapril t1_j7vbrme wrote

It’s starting to get a little concerning… what will these people do? UBI needs to be implemented in the next 2-3 years.

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clearlylacking t1_j7vxqfk wrote

I'm hedging my bets by learning to deal drugs

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JLockrin t1_j7y4o3u wrote

Jail time with 3 square meals a day. You’re after the OG UBI I see!

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thehearingguy77 t1_j7zf899 wrote

Have they published “Dealing Drugs - For Dummies” yet? It’s only time. (Just kidding with you. I’m not insulting you.)

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j7vjn61 wrote

>UBI needs to be implemented in the next 2-3 years.

Respectfully, I think this is a bit of an overreaction.

The unemployment rate is at a historic low right now and as impressive as technological progress has been the last few years, I think you're seriously overestimating how fast that progress is made and how fast it is adopted by organizations.

And in regards to UI designers, someone on this thread pointed out how this is AI only automates the most basic aspects of the job.

Edit: I've noticed I'm getting downvoted. I'm just going to say one thing: if you wholeheartedly believe an universal basic income will be a necessity in just 2-3 YEARS, you're not thinking rationally. 2-3 years is nothing.

You guys just love upvoting comments that sound nice to you (even if they're crazy) and downvoting comments that don't sound nice to you (even if they make sense). That's my main gripe with this sub. Emotion supercedes logic here.

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burnt_umber_ciera t1_j7vnvsl wrote

Your response to UBI is necessary in 2-3 years is to say look at the current employment rate? This doesn’t address at all that we are in the slope of the exponential curve now. Just look how fast GPT is being incorporated into MSFT. Even if you assume that process started with GPT-3 in 2020 we are basically 2-3 years out from that. These advances are only accelerating and being adopted at an ever increasing pace. I would be very surprised if large segments of the workforce were not displaced by AI by 2025.

This forum generates a lot of this discussion because it has attracted people who have thought a lot about this topic and see where it’s headed and how quickly.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j7vs4gv wrote

>I would be very surprised if large segments of the workforce were not displaced by AI by 2025.

If I had to hazard a guess, most AI researchers and economists would very much disagree with this take.

And I think you're underestimating the complexity of those jobs.

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Lawjarp2 t1_j7ydz0s wrote

People confuse full replacement with unemployment. You don't need AGI if you don't replace everyone. There will be large unemployment by end of this decade. Large enough to make governments do something about it

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FattThor t1_j7vycf3 wrote

You’re making a huge assumption that these technologies will result in unemployment with no actual evidence. It could just as easily turn out that instead of using current “manual” framework stacks to build apps, SWEs adapt to use an AI stack and just build more apps better and faster.

I’m all for UBI if it turns out it’s actually needed because we ended up creating cornucopia machines. But while unemployment is single digits its pretty silly to call for it.

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burnt_umber_ciera t1_j7w0ki0 wrote

Sure, I’m extrapolating and using my knowledge of economics, business, AI, human psychology, etc. It’s a hypothesis based on the universe of facts that I believe relevant. It’s not an assumption out of thin air. It’s possible I’m wrong I will grant that.

However, I was taking issue with a post that seemed to think it was highly unlikely that UBI would be necessary in 2-3 years and the reasoning presented for that conclusion. I think it is certainly within a reasonable degree of probability that many jobs will in fact be displaced faster than others being created elsewhere and that could occur in 2-3 years.

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LickyAsTrips t1_j7w1c58 wrote

> unemployment rate is at a historic low right now

A big percentage of that are shit jobs, without a living wage, with little to no benefits, and people trying to string together gig economy jobs to keep from starving.

I work in a sector historically known for for its slow to adapt approach and old school ways. They are scrambling to implement everything they can yesterday.

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qa_anaaq t1_j7xfuq6 wrote

This is a reasonable response and the downvoting is cultish.

Things need to be thought through to logical ends. If say 20% of the labor force was knocked out of employment due to AI over a 2-3 year period, the loss in income tax and the spike in foreclosures would critically injure our economy. Nobody would buy things, so companies couldn't afford to hire for even menial roles.

Technological advances have only augmented and opened labor markets. Sure, the automobile industry killed the horse carriage industry, but did the ramifications of that show any threat to society in hindsight? Why is AI the magic pill that suddenly destroys this pattern?

Eh whatever.

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Lawjarp2 t1_j7ye9sl wrote

Because there were always things that humans could do. With AGI it can adapt faster than we can. So every new job could also be done by AGI.

The society is based on necessity and if middle class is no longer necessary, which seems to be the case, why not go back to feudalism? It truly doesn't matter if everyone gets to live well and spawn future generations or only a few do. It will all be forgotten in the end.

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Artanthos t1_j7w9bug wrote

  1. I would give it closer to 15-20 years. Congress won’t act until it’s turns into a widespread disaster.
  2. UBI, if it happens, will be a stripped down version of current welfare systems. It won’t be free money.
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jetstobrazil t1_j7wrreg wrote

If we vote for someone legendary like a Bernie we could prob get it before the water wars

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Artanthos t1_j7zvxth wrote

You would need to replace 15-20 people in the Senate and probably the same number in the House.

People willing to radically restructure the tax code and entitlement programs.

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jetstobrazil t1_j7zxfeb wrote

Totally, it would definitely necessitate someone hitting the campaign trail with bully pulpit against those corporatist senators and washing in those willing to primary them and enact progressive reform. Lot of things have to go right, but the support is there nationwide, even to flip seats with the right campaign.

Nearly inconceivable but not quite impossible .

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Capitaclism t1_j7x723m wrote

It doesn't matter what congress gives or doesn't, what matters is the amount of goods and services. More currency and the same supply = higher prices. No one is better, really, a once people with savings get the idea money flees, the currency goes into a doom loop of purchasing power loss.

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SoulGuardian55 t1_j7w3306 wrote

Some people around or my age group (late-teens to mid-20's) already think about adaptation in such new reality.

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Capitaclism t1_j7x6v64 wrote

It can't, not unless real AI goes for energy and food production, increasing it by a very significant degree.

That is the foundation of any economy, and it looks like it's nowhere close to that.

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nikolameteor t1_j87qr84 wrote

I don't think UBI's gonna happen any sooner than 10 years until we see massive job layoffs and people start to protest on the street.

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nutidizen t1_j7wpixo wrote

> Beware to all UX/UI designers -- AI is coming for your jobs and mine as well (software dev). It might look silly now (it doesn't to me) but a year is a HUGE amount of time for AI to develop -- it will replace us its a guarantee.

Go to r/programming and they will tell you how irreplaceable they are. lol

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messyp t1_j7yjuco wrote

UX designer here. This tech is pretty exciting for us tbh, it means less time building design system components and flows and more time empathising with our users, understanding their pain points and finding solutions. When the AI can truly understand a human's needs and empathise with them i'll dust of the Resume.

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DeveloperGuy75 t1_j8cjubb wrote

This “coming for your jobs” is ridiculous. It’s going to make it to where people can do more themselves.

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[deleted] t1_j7w47im wrote

[deleted]

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Sad_Laugh_8337 t1_j7w4ft9 wrote

how is it fear mongering, is it not reality?

I'm not saying society is collapsing, but one should adapt to the future. If that's fear mongering than I'm sorry.

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Supersubie t1_j7uxsjm wrote

So I own a Product Design agency and I have been trying to use stable diffusion to do something like this but with very mixed results.

I wondered how I would feel when AI came for my industry, I think its easy to get scared but tbh I am fucking pumped.

We have been trying to work out in our agency how to go from strategy workshops / research into full product design as quickly as possible.

This is going to get our product design and launch timeframe down from 30 days to a matter of a week or 2.

We can focus on research, strategy and solving real user needs and focus less on creating a log in flow for the 500th time. Can't wait.

GIVE ME ACCESS NOW!!

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Iffykindofguy t1_j7uyh5l wrote

But why do they need to come to you at all if they, using this and other apps, can create their own stuff?

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Supersubie t1_j7v1e2j wrote

Because the UI design is the least valuable bit of the process. This is like level 0. I am not being hired to design screens, I am being hired to solve large strategic problems and create valuable products.

This just lets me do that faster for them.

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Own_Arm1104 t1_j7uyw0n wrote

People buy grocery from grocery stores because they can't buy directly from the producers, so when it comes to ai, why would they pay you when they could get access cheaper, or especially when it's not even hard for you to do it yourself. Capitalisms about capitalizing the barriers to access. GL out there providing minimal edge case services.

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Martholomeow t1_j7vygbo wrote

You could also grow your own vegetables but you probably don’t.

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Own_Arm1104 t1_j7w9gjp wrote

My point is that if you have easy access to something (time included), then you wouldn't pay someone else to do it unless there was value doing so. I can also drive my own car, pick up my own food, & so on, but there is value in saving time, which is the only thing I can see as valuable for op to do because interacting with the ai also takes some skill for better results.

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Supersubie t1_j7v0yu8 wrote

People can buy directly from the producers but most of them don't because working out what is good produce, whats a good price, negotiating all of the deals and getting it all put together and delivered would be a giant waste of their time that is frankly better spent doing other things.

You are assuming that UI design is the most important thing that I do. Its the LEAST important thing that I do. I hire people straight out of uni to do it because its monkey work. Absolutely no talent or skill required.

What I do that is valuable is get Founders in a room, create a product strategy, understand the value they provide to users, design how we can create a system that amps that to 10. Test that hypothesis and get them to pivot and iterate a few times before we start coding anything.

I save them time, money and get them to product market fit faster. The UI means fuck all haha.

If you are a UI designer.. sure bye bye job but you were really lazy to begin with because that just is the least valuable thing we as product designers do.

You are still going to need a good brain for product strategy, and know why you shouldn't over complicate your product at launch, and slim down everything you COULD do into only the things you SHOULD do and I have worked with 100s of Founders. The one thins I know is none of them think like this and will still need experts on their side to stop them making big mistakes and spending too much on building something no one needs.

This just lets me do that even faster.

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thelifeaboveus t1_j7v2y3j wrote

As someone that really runs a Product Design agency, and has been in the market for 10+ years, what you are saying is complete bullshit. Proof: wandr.studio

​

UI/UX design goes hand in hand with product strategy, I don't care how good your strategy are, if you cannot present information in a way that sells your product, your product is garbage.

​

And a solution cannot be converted to screens in 30 days, we have clients that are with us for 1.5+ years with more than 1 thousand screens designed. If you can do that in 1 week please apply to our company, and we will happily hire you.

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Supersubie t1_j7v4pzy wrote

Why would I apply to your studio when I run my own haha?

Right so you have literally just agreed with me? You need great strategy, great research and data and then you bundle that up into a product design. The product design is the least valuable bit because it takes the least skill.

You can literally just use design systems you find online if you were a founder and come out with something that will sell. You cannot sell however without a great understand of your users needs and a strategy on how to solve a valuable problem and communicate it in an effective way.

I dont really get what you are disagreeing about here.

I don't think I have ever worked on a project that has required over a 1000 screens... and I have been the Product manager and lead designer on a SaaS product we scaled form £0 to £2million ARR. The design for that product was done in about 3 months with most of the work after that being small iterations based on further User Research.

We must have very different methods, you look like a UI craftsman thats great but you know thats not really what businesses are investing in when working with a product designer.

EDIT:

From your own fucking website... you have a startup bootcamp that you deliver in 4 weeks haha... Yet you say you can't create a solution and turn it into screens in 30 days... your own fucking company website says you do that in 30 days with a pitch deck and full prototyping.

One of you is full of bullshit, either your website or you...

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Own_Arm1104 t1_j7wa54u wrote

Thanks for embellishing. Your position in this is the only thing I could think of to make it viable. When I posted the reply, I had just woken up & didn't make a good response. I was a little shallow, sorry for that.

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just-a-dreamer- t1_j7v6p7s wrote

Why would you want that?

When the job gets done in 2 days instead of 30, 90% of the people working there are not needed anymore.

Are you shure you won't be ome of them. And even if you keep your position, what leverage would you maintain in wage negotiations?

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Supersubie t1_j7v8dor wrote

Again I own the company.

This is amazing because the only reason we take so long currently to deliver these projects is because the pixel pushing after all of the strategy and research takes so long to deliver.

This will speed that up hugely.

I can now get my team to focus where it's truly valuable, which is research and strategy. Not what grid system we are using and what colours the brand should be.

To give you an example we recently found through user research a way that our client can construct their system to beat the market incumbent in time to sign up by over 3 mins... this is in a market where sign up needs to happen as close to instant as possible for it not to be a pain in the arse.

This bit of research unlocked investment from a major financial payments provider to the value of a few million £'s. That investment didn't happen because we had a pretty screen design, it happened because we gathered the qualitative data to prove that the competitors in the space were all making a giant mistake and putting crazy amounts of friction in their sign up process for no real reason.

The screen design for that app is still a sign up flow... I could create it with my eyes closed I have done it so many times in my career. The value.. the reason startups and SME's actually hire my product design agency is because we get the data that lets them outcompete the competition, save costs, be leaner, launch faster and create more value for their customers.

If you aren't doing that.. yea you should be shitting yourself. But thats like level 0 for a designer.

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helpskinissues t1_j7utpze wrote

This is basically art generation with restricted scope. Which is great.

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vivehelpme t1_j7uy2xi wrote

More likely code generation with restricted scope, that looks clean in a way that you don't get with image generation

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LickyAsTrips t1_j7w25mq wrote

> This is basically art generation with restricted scope.

Its creating Figma files too. It can probably replace some entry level UX designers soon. 4 years from now, who knows.

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TheRidgeAndTheLadder t1_j7wpgps wrote

Once we get the ability to share a filesystem with AIs, a lot of things get unlocked.

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blueberryman422 t1_j7vndft wrote

At the rate AI is improving now, I really don't understand how there can still be so many developers that believe their job is safe from AI.

Fiverr freelancers from around the world will have access to many of the very same AI tools. Things like ChatGPT means everyone speaks good English now.

If people don't want to use Fiverr, there's still going to be YouTube. A short YouTube video will be able to show anyone that's remotely decent with computers how to create a company app using AI in minutes.

Will there be a need for more complex apps? Of course, but it won't take 20+ developers to make it. A few experienced developers is all that will be necessary. AI will make every developer capable of doing more. Unless there are a bunch of new projects, a lot of developers might have a bit too much free time and businesses might factor that into developer salaries.

In my opinion, there are too many apps already. Every company feels that they need to have an app. Apps drain battery, take up storage, and are usually bad for privacy.

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BigZaddyZ3 t1_j7v7ocu wrote

Welp… add web/ui designers to the list.🥱 (Of soon to be unemployed). It’s fine though cause pretty much everyone’s gonna end up there eventually. So it is what it is.

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luisbrudna t1_j7vdzw3 wrote

In a few years more jobs will be 'destroyed'.

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RPN t1_j7w1epq wrote

Super dope. Made a video on this. I am really excited to try this out. As a UI designer - I love it. It lowers the barrier of entry for people to build their own products and companies.

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kmtrp t1_j7wndi1 wrote

Ok so we are a few months away to write about your new website and boom, it's designed, coded and hosted.

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Redditing-Dutchman t1_j7z7273 wrote

Now waiting for graphic design (the field im in myself). I don't think it will take very long, but on the other hand it's quite different than both illustration and UI.

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XagentVFX t1_j7yuvyg wrote

Just started delivering for Amazon while just getting off being senior digital designer. Smartest move I think right now. Atlas ent here just yet. Lol

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