FC4945 t1_j7xgaog wrote on February 10, 2023 at 2:16 AM

A great many "experts" went on the record back in the 90s saying AGI would never happen or if it did it wouldn't happen for a 100 years. In a recent conference of "experts" most are now saying it will happen by 2030. While no one knows the future (as in we could have a nuclear war, etc.) the trend lines are largely moving us toward a technological singularly. You can see numerous graphs in Ray Kurzweils, "The Singularity Is Near" demonstrating the exponential growth of technology. His new book will also include this data as well (see the Lex Fridman podcast below.) Could something happen to push the date off, sure it could. But, thus far, war, a worldwide depression and a pandemic hasn't done it. Also, I'm not sure why people shouldn't look forward to a world without poverty and a betterment of the human condition. Life is getting better thanks to technology and, I for one, would like to see that continue not just for my own serious ends (kidding) but for the rest of humanity. Nothing wrong with that as far as I can see. Happiness is something to aim for. We don't always get it in this life but no reason not to keep reaching for it. Technology can make a lot of people more happy, more healthy, more fulfilled. I say, "Let's do this thing." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykY69lSpDdo&list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4&index=37

Ortus14 t1_j7z34ei wrote on February 10, 2023 at 12:58 PM

I'm getting sick of all these doomers like the op coming to this sub, and repeating the same debunked talking points, that know literally nothing about the AGI algorithms, trends, or "expert" consensus but think they're geniuses that can talk on any subject, despite their massive ignorance.

FC4945 t1_j80w8px wrote on February 10, 2023 at 8:24 PM

The reality is experts are moving closer and closer to Ray's assessment as to when we will reach AGI. 2045 is still a bit away but, given the rate of progress we've seen only recently in AI, it's reasonable to say we are in striking distance to seeing his predictions become reality in the next three decades. There are still hurdles but there have been hurdles in the past that we've overcome. AI and the AGI by 2029 will help us overcome those hurdles too. I would not be surprised in we reach AGI sooner than 2029 and, indeed, we reach the singularity before 2045. I actually remember seeing an MIT professor say he thought it would occur by 2039.

Ashamed-Asparagus-93 t1_j8cnii2 wrote on February 13, 2023 at 8:57 AM

Rather than dismiss doomers maybe we should try to understand them more. Like why even come here to type a negative spin on something you don't know a lot about?

Is it because they only watch CNN and read Washington Post? Or maybe they're depressed in life. Or it could be they're religious and it clashes with their beliefs and annoys them. I knew a guy who was like that

FC4945 t1_j8kxat2 wrote on February 15, 2023 at 1:37 AM

I think it's a combination of watching too many dystopian movies with a mindset that is naturally negative about the future. I really want to see more films like Her. Films that show how AGI and ASI can benefit humanity. There will, of course, be religious holdouts that will never get on board but that's always been the case in society.