This is an excellent point. Many of us are probably underestimating timelines based on a desire to believe. Motivated reasoning and confirmation bias are huge influences.

You probably shouldn't have mixed it with an argument for longer timelines. That will give an excuse to argue that and ig ore the point.

The reasonable estimate is very wide. Nobody knows how easy or hard it might be to create AGI. I've looked at all of the arguments, and have enough expertise to understand them. Nobody knows.