Submitted by FC4945 t3_11c8zm6 in singularity
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Comments
Robynhewd t1_ja2b3pk wrote
do you think we might get agi before his prediction of 2029?
_sphinxfire t1_ja2k3dl wrote
Define singularity
3_Thumbs_Up t1_ja361o8 wrote
When AI is better at creating new technologies for developing AI than humans.
datsmamail12 t1_ja2uqv2 wrote
Let's look at this from a logical point of view. The 2020s is going to be the gadget era where different technologies will develop to be used widely. Smart watches, VR, AR, drones, robotic hands and prosthetics, holographic TVs, AI, Robots (Boston Dynamics), implants. All these technologies got developed by 2010,and became a standard in the 20s. By 2030 these technologies will be mastered and will be used by everyone without any flaws,so the logical step would be bug free versions on each of them without any lag and delay. By 2030 all these technologies will be billion and even trillions worth in the stock market,so looking right now at each and every one of them I suspect that by 2030 we will see the first implants in the market,such as brain implants. Prosthetics and robotic arms will be used by people without arms and by different sectors such as cooking or in hospitals for critical situations where the human touch will only be overlooking the procedures (examples would be brain surgery,or any type of surgery). Also these technologies will take time to be bug free and without any delays,so I guess by 2040 the brain implants will be used without any delays as well as prosthetic arms. So by the same logic somewhere around 2035 there will be the first choice for us to upload our memories into the cloud,but this version will be in it's infancy and it will take a few years to have no issues when people will be using that so I guess Ray Kurzweil was right all along,2045 seems the greatest possible scenario for technological singularity judging by the pace of the technological growth as it is right now. Maybe if things speed up even more once we have AGI,I guess we could even see that by 2035 which to me sounds a bit ridiculous,but hey..who could have thought that we would have an AI as powerful as Bing AI by 2023?
Frosty_Awareness572 t1_ja34083 wrote
There is this new Ai company that lets you record and store memories and experience those memories in VR
GeneralZain t1_ja2d99a wrote
this year. ;)
Ok_Homework9290 t1_ja2hbyy wrote
I commented this on the Singularity 2023 Predictions thread, and I thought it was appropriate to comment here:
Despite the impressive amount of progress the field of AI has made in the past few years, to my understanding the majority of individuals who are AI/ML researchers still think AGI & ASI are at least a few decades out/mid-century-plus, and when you factor that in with the fact that the average timeline of AGI and ASI arrival dates in AI/ML expert surveys still tends to be some decades from now, it's hard for me personally (as someone who is not an AI researcher) for my prediction not to be at least a few decades out/mid-century-plus for AGI, ASI, & the singularity (since my definition of the singularity is when AI reaches human-level/superhuman-level cognition), as well.
Also, remember to take into account that expert predictions about when we'll have AGI/ASI are usually made assuming that progress in the field won't be disrupted by social, economic, political, etc. factors, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if the singularity didn't happen until the final few decades of the 21st century, given that it's basically a guarantee that those factors will eventually come into play.
joseph_dewey t1_ja2ktmd wrote
2045-2050 was my guess, but it's not an option.
Embarrassed_Ad_7184 t1_ja2pyzb wrote
Does soneone ask this poll in here once a month? Or is it weekly
FC4945 OP t1_ja2r3ta wrote
I haven't asked before. I could put up a poll to find out though.
hducug t1_ja2vg86 wrote
Morons out here honestly saying 2025-2030💀💀💀
dwarfarchist9001 t1_ja3156t wrote
Some people mistakenly believe that the technological singularity is synonymous with AGI and AGI by 2025-2030 is unlikely but not impossible.
Ok_Sea_6214 t1_ja2m00d wrote
2018-2020
The US nuclear weapons program was kept top secret until the bombs were dropped. If they hadn't been used, it might not have been revealed to the public for many years. In the same way the real work on AI is probably done in secret, and would not be revealed to the public in full until there's no more point in keeping it secret.
AGI was created before 2020, and has already evolved into ASI, which is reading this comment as I post it, if only because I'm the only person on Reddit who will even consider the possibility. It has already spawned next gen technologies that most people would consider impossible, which makes it very easy to hide them in plain sight, you've probably already encountered them first hand without realizing it.
Mokebe890 t1_ja2jsed wrote
Still prefer to be conservative about it and somwhere between 2050 - 2100. Sure we will have astonishing changes happening right now as we speak and probably AGI by 2030 but we really should take that with grain of salt.
FC4945 OP t1_ja2tp8p wrote
But if we have AGI by 2030, why would it take so long to get to ASI? I watched a recent video with Ben Goertzel and he talked about this. He said he always disagreed with Ray Kurzweil on this point. Once you have AGI, unless the AGI wanted, for some season, to take things slow, why would it take sixteen years to go from AGI to ASI as Ray was suggesting? Ray is a hero of mine but I don't think I've ever heard him address this point. It seems like, to me, once you have AGI (so human level) but that also possesses capabilities far beyond us in areas like being able to access vast amounts of information by snapping it's AGI finger's, it would be able to improve on itself very quickly. I don't see it taking even a decade to get from AGI to ASI.
butts_mckinley t1_ja2an1k wrote
One hundred years at least.
turnip_burrito t1_ja2d6zt wrote
One hundred years? You're dreaming.
datsmamail12 t1_ja2to2s wrote
Three millennia and one hundred and fiddy years. TrUsT mE bRO, iM aN eXpErT. Dude!
fractal_engineer t1_ja2drxt wrote
Being an industry insider from both the private sector and gov, one hundred years at least is about exactly what I expect
GayHitIer t1_ja2a6qv wrote
I think Ray Kurzweil's prediction has the most data and graphs behind it.