Mokebe890 t1_ja2jsed wrote on February 26, 2023 at 10:37 AM

Still prefer to be conservative about it and somwhere between 2050 - 2100. Sure we will have astonishing changes happening right now as we speak and probably AGI by 2030 but we really should take that with grain of salt.

FC4945 OP t1_ja2tp8p wrote on February 26, 2023 at 12:42 PM

But if we have AGI by 2030, why would it take so long to get to ASI? I watched a recent video with Ben Goertzel and he talked about this. He said he always disagreed with Ray Kurzweil on this point. Once you have AGI, unless the AGI wanted, for some season, to take things slow, why would it take sixteen years to go from AGI to ASI as Ray was suggesting? Ray is a hero of mine but I don't think I've ever heard him address this point. It seems like, to me, once you have AGI (so human level) but that also possesses capabilities far beyond us in areas like being able to access vast amounts of information by snapping it's AGI finger's, it would be able to improve on itself very quickly. I don't see it taking even a decade to get from AGI to ASI.