I didn’t expect artificial visual art to be such a low hanging fruit.

What about AI music? Is it as good but more discreet or is there something with music that is more complex?

One other thing that I didn’t expect is the asymmetry of ressources between training and inferencing. It seems to be like 5 or 6 orders of magnitude, AI has always been anthropomorphised with the same entity seemingly both « learning » and « acting ».

That makes current AI both extremely centralized for training and relatively decentralized to actually do something, I don’t know if it will change anything, but I don’t think it has been much thought about

For example AI could be soon stolen/copied and run locally like any software…

AI art and language are so complex but competent now. They are such flexible and powerful models of art and language. The art models in particular figure out reflection, shading, refraction, and all these other crazy things not explicitly labeled.

Five years ago I'd have told you this was like a decade or two away. These developments have really blown my socks off.

New AIs also have fantastic problem solving and task completion skills in novel environments. It's slightly under the radar but equally impressive.

I think with very multimodal datasets, we will have AGI, but frozen in its ability to upgrade.

If we add real time updating, and allow it to take summaries of its own internal state as data, we will have AGI that is every bit as flexible as a human being.

(It will also immediately be ASI because it has so much knowledge and media generation built in)

I think the next decade we'll see at least 4 or 5 more top tier Wow! moments on par with Dalle-2/SD AI art and GPT 3, and then we'll be basically at AGI.

A few:

• The absurd ease to build models displaying intelligence and a panoply of emergent behaviors, that would have been qualified as exclusive of sentience not long ago. There's not that much time since transformers were first proposed.

• AIs being instructed how to behave in natural language, like a proto set of "Asimov's laws".

• The offended/unhinged search engines, after enough verbal abuse and user trickery.

Sci-fi AI is usually portrayed as having an adult intellect. In reality we are seeing AIs with a childlike intelligence or that of a lower animal. Not necessarily unexpected but, different from fiction.

It's less capable at doing tasks on the computer, than I thought it would be by now, but has better language capabilities.

That was a mistake on my part, I hadn't thought things through enough to realize language requires less computation, and therefore would arrive sooner.

Overall, nothings changed with the trajectory. We're still clearly on track for ASI in the 2030s.