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DeltaV-Mzero t1_jdmpjzm wrote

Reliable robotics is a few years off at most. It’s really just a cost question, and that’s really just a volume question.


Verzingetorix t1_jdmsbdj wrote

I don't think we will have robot plumbers any time soon.

Similarly, a lot of jobs that take place outside of a computer, either partially or fully, will be safe from AI for a long time.


DeltaV-Mzero t1_jdmtmwr wrote

Depends on your definition of “soon” but I give it 5 years tops. The robots can physically do it, and the “mental” side is advancing so fast right now I can’t keep track of it.

Of course, if every other job is replaced by AI / robots, it doesn’t matter. Nobody will have money to pay the plumber


Verzingetorix t1_jdmuhx5 wrote

Do you honestly believe we will have robot plumbers in 5 years?

Who today is building, or planning, the manufacturing plants for these robots?

How's the robot going to make it to the job site?

I swear some of you live in a dream state and are so out of touch with how society works it i's mind numbing.

You know plumbers need to be certified right? What mechanism is being developed to validate the work if a plumber robot will be done in accordance with Codes and Regulations?


SkyeandJett t1_jdmv6d5 wrote

That's conservative. It'll take time to deploy but you'll have a robot capable of it this year I can almost guarantee it. My money is on the 1X NEO that OpenAI just invested in.


fiftyfourseventeen t1_jdnsmo3 wrote

This year? You guys are insane lol. Computer vision is absolutely trash compared to the state of language models. And no, feeding each frame into GPT 4 is not a good or viable option either.


SkyeandJett t1_jdnvk8d wrote

!RemindMe 1 year "Generalized android demonstration"


fiftyfourseventeen t1_jdo5rdg wrote

!RemindMe 1 year "AI progress has plateaud for the the next 3 or 4 years until another breakthrough happens, as has been the case for the last 20 years. Currently 1 year into the plateau when I see this message"


fiftyfourseventeen t1_jdnul9a wrote

Somebody finally said it lol. I think it's easy to see everything with starry eyes if you don't know all that much about robotics or how AI architectures actually work. Companies like Boston dynamics have been trying to solve robotics in the real world for years. Trying to make a humanoid like creature that can move around in an environment is EXTREMELY hard. And that's just on the robotics end, not the AI end.

The best AI right now are text gen and image gen. This is largely because of the amount of training data available for them. Trying to train an agent to interact with environment to preform a skilled trade? That's such an inconceivably hard task. Think about how much time Tesla has tried to make a self driving car, which is honestly really simple compared to a trade. There are maps that tell you the location of every building and road in the world, and there are a set of rules that everyone has to follow. Even then, it still has problems like running lights, failing to see pedestrians in front of it, hell even just looking at the screen you can see it bugging out trying to figure out if it's looking at a truck, car, or a bike.

Now think of that in trade terms. How are we going to have an AI purchase the hardware needed, go to the house, ask the owner what the problem is and where it is, diagnose the problem, and then fix it, all without screwing up and flooding the whole house. These are orders of magnitude more difficult problems for AI to solve that writing an essay, writing code, or creating an image. And we don't even have a lick of training data.

And then for anybody who's like "oh well it was also inconceivable for text and image gen", well I mean maybe for most people, but I think a lot of people (including myself) saw huge potential in them since years ago. I also develop image, video, and language models so it's not like I'm clueless about AI either.


DeltaV-Mzero t1_jdmuu75 wrote

They won’t cover all jobs or be completely autonomous, but I think they’ll be able to be remotely supervised; with a single experienced plumber managing ~5 or so of them at once.


dwarfarchist9001 t1_jdnxsla wrote

Multiple companies are working on general purpose humanoid robots right now including Tesla who have already demonstrated prototypes of the hardware.

Even if that was not the case, the combination of AGI, 3D printing, and nanotechnology means that in the near future products will go from concept to mass production in months or even weeks not years.