Gortanian2 OP t1_jdythpp wrote on March 28, 2023 at 4:31 AM

Reply to comment by ThePokemon_BandaiD in Singularity is a hypothesis by Gortanian2

It seems obvious right? Just tell the AI to rewrite and improve its own code repeatedly, and it takes off.

As it turns out, recursive self-improvement doesn’t necessarily work like that. There might be limits to how much improvement can be made this way. The second article I linked gives an intuitive explanation.

ThePokemon_BandaiD t1_jdyuo2r wrote on March 28, 2023 at 4:44 AM

That article is from 2017, and includes no understanding whatsoever of the theories and technology being used in current generative AI.

ThePokemon_BandaiD t1_jdytnho wrote on March 28, 2023 at 4:33 AM

Humans are definitely not the theoretical limit for intelligence.

Gortanian2 OP t1_jdywit9 wrote on March 28, 2023 at 5:04 AM

I agree with you. I’m only questioning the mathematical probability of an unbounded intelligence explosion.

Ok_Faithlessness4197 t1_jdz5m2l wrote on March 28, 2023 at 6:57 AM

I just read the second article you linked, and it does not provide any scientific basis for the bounds of an intelligence explosion. Given the recent uptrend in AI investment, I'd give 5-10 years before an ASI emerges. Primarily, once AI takes over microprocessor development, it will almost certainly kickstart this explosion.

theotherquantumjim t1_jdz19vm wrote on March 28, 2023 at 6:00 AM

I think AGI (depending on your definition) is pretty close already. As you’ve alluded to, we may never get ASI. I’m not sure that matters really. Singularity suggests a point where the tech is indistinguishable from magic e.g. nanotech, ftl travel etc. I don’t think we need that kind of event to fundamentally re-shape society, as others have said

Ok_Tip5082 t1_jdyufwc wrote on March 28, 2023 at 4:41 AM

When you're in the elbow it's really hard to tell if the growth is logistic, exponential, or hyperbolic.