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hellosandrik t1_je9hix9 wrote

man, this sub sure loves curves 😅


fluffy_assassins t1_jeag48d wrote

Don't we all?


LiveComfortable3228 t1_je9ua56 wrote

Was literally about to post this. We're at the peak of inflated expectations. There will be a plateau, then a drop, then a slow stead climb.

We're not going to be living in a moneyless techno utopia in 2025 and terminators will not kill humanity by 2024 either.


AdmirableTea3144 t1_je9z3l6 wrote

No drop, no plateau. Just continued exponential rise.


apinanaivot t1_jeab61e wrote

Well it will be an s curve, the laws of physics will surely slow things down at some point.


ReignOfKaos t1_jean8y9 wrote

Yes. Exponential functions look like s-curves when applied to reality.


uswhole t1_jeatvi2 wrote

AI will going to the moon there is no stopping this time


brycedriesenga t1_jearwhs wrote

> terminators will not kill humanity by 2024 either

Well, what's the point of all this then‽


SendThemToHeaven t1_jebj4ug wrote

I disagree. I feel like the last time machine learning was the hype was the peak


fluffy_assassins t1_jeagaju wrote

It's not like that, I don't think.

It keeps going up and down... like "AI winters".

Just a question of when it has an up so high that the AI take over.

And that may... or may not be... on the current upwards slope. Who knows.

Not me!


_JellyFox_ t1_je9xjhg wrote

How the hell would anybody know? You'll only know where you were on the curve after the fact.


scooby1st t1_jeb08r0 wrote

And is this a conceptually accurate curve? I reject the premise of the question altogether 😡


Cartossin t1_jeacyza wrote

I'm getting a little tired of everyone saying that the creation of a digital god is just hype.


TheDuwus t1_jeawbyi wrote

I think everybody still treats this as a regular technology. This isn't just a tech.


Cartossin t1_jeb0d6f wrote

Exactly! Have these people not read Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark???


scooby1st t1_jeb0t60 wrote

Probably not but regardless of whether they've read some random thing you found particularly striking, I'm wary of you calling it a "digital god" and getting upvoted.


Cartossin t1_jeb3daj wrote

I'm being somewhat factious here with my book reference. Obviously not everyone has read this book nor is it even the most popular work on the topic. However, if you object to my term "digital god", perhaps you don't know what an AGI/ASI is. Maybe you don't know what a god is.

Yes, obviously we are entering uncharted waters. Perhaps being superior to all humans at every cognitive task in every measurable way won't yield godlike abilities. I however find that hard to believe. To believe that significantly superhuman intelligence won't seem magical to us lowly humans is hubris.

I'm not claiming any of this is a certainty, and I could point you to many sources scholarly and otherwise from both the computer science and philosphy fields that explain how an AGI can and will become godlike; but maybe you'll just mock+downvote me again for referencing a thing I read.


scooby1st t1_jeb4kst wrote

We're on the same page that a hypothetically hyper-intelligent system could be "god-like". We are completely diverged in how implicitly confident you are about this occurring with ChatGPT, regardless that "you aren't claiming any of this with a certainty".

It's pretty bold that say you're tired of everyone saying the creation of a god is hype, and then to say, oh yeah but I'm not 100% sure on that, I'm being realistic.


Cartossin t1_jeb6xm9 wrote

>how implicitly confident you are about this occurring with ChatGPT

I was not referring to ChatGPT as the thing that will become the digital god. I am mostly saying that it is a reminder that the digital gods are coming even if they don't come out of LLMS.

If I asked you 5 years ago what your estimate for when we'll achieve AGI, what would it have been? Since the release of ChatGPT + GPT4, has this estimate changed?

If you asked me 5 years ago, I'd have said 20-100 years. If you ask me now, I say more like 2-20 years. Why? Because we've gotten much closer than I thought we'd be by now. I have to update the timeline.


scooby1st t1_jeb98pr wrote

You certainly leave a lot of room for people to read your mind. You say a lot of things without saying them.


Cartossin t1_jebcc4q wrote

Noted. Did you see my two questions?


scooby1st t1_jebdjwn wrote

Lmao bro I'm not skimming your single sentence original comment. I hate people that hide behind ambiguity and poor communication as a shield for their bullshit. You're riding a hype train and you keep an ambiguous line between "some definition of AGI perhaps in the near future" and "god is being created".

That's quite the goalpost you've moved at your own convenience.You're very disingenuous. Quit your bullshit homie. If your original statement was able to be interpreted in so many ways, communicate better.


Cartossin t1_jeedewy wrote

I have a Scooby tattoo and a guy called Scooby1st got mad at me. fml


Cartossin t1_jebdqty wrote

Oh well heck you read my comment before I edited it down to a less confrontational version. I guess I'll never get to hear your answer. When I leave my statements vague enough that they're not wrong, it's your fault for choosing to think I must mean the incorrect thing.

How am I disingenuous? Also there is no hype train. You're being ridiculous on that point. today's language models are world-changingly revoltionary. For my "digital god" comment to be wrong, that revolution must have started and ended in the last 2 years. If you figure it has any momentum at all, the digital gods are coming.


SkyeandJett t1_je9g9ai wrote

I'm at the peak but I don't think there's anywhere it falls off. 😄 We're riding this exponential acceleration curve whether we like it or not.


FrogFister t1_je9pn31 wrote

how are you holding on mate?


Prevailing_Power t1_jeaas7o wrote

If you're not wealthy and don't really have anything going on, the prospect of a total AI takeover of humanity sounds entertaining, not scary. Regardless of the path it takes, I'm going to be enjoying the show.


incelo2 t1_jee55al wrote

Even more if you have degenerative health problems!


chlebseby t1_je9g2mc wrote

I think im still in "innovation trigger" zone. Velocity of progress meet my expectations so far.

As long as we discuss AI as a whole. Specific products may differ, for example Image generation is in "trough of disillusionment" for me...


Cartossin t1_jeacqha wrote

If we look at the 1990s promise of a pocket computer with 500 channels of TV and access to all human knowledge, the expectatons were not inflated. They undershot the smartphone revolution if anything.

The rise of AI will be like that. Most people will completely underestimate how much it will do.

Not everything follows this curve. I'd bet money that this is one of the things that doesn't follow the curve.


Wassux t1_jedzhih wrote

I agree, true AI is the last real invention by humans. Everything that held for the past will not hold for this.


Saerain t1_jeand2j wrote

Feels like the slope of enlightenment to me because my hype was peaking in 2013 and is just coming out of a trough.


chrisc82 t1_jebcz38 wrote

Exactly. It's not hype when every day is a new breakthrough. It's exponential enlightenment.


FrogFister t1_je9pl97 wrote

Is it wrong to say I'm all over the place :))


dlrace t1_jea2r37 wrote

I suppose the peak, but maybe it depends on how new you are to this. Realistically, nowehere, since this supposed cycle is about as well validated as horoscopes!


basilgello t1_je9jv8o wrote

Slope of enlightenment. It took me a month to go through excitement/fear cycles and start actively refreshing my knowledge in NNs.


[deleted] t1_jea6700 wrote

Personally I'm at the disillusionment stage. Now, I want to try to invent something for humans. Lmao. Im a graphic designer. I want to make some stickers. Some posters. Some art. Something human. Something physical. Something public. Something loud. Something that brings people together.


zendonium t1_jeahrw0 wrote

This is the Gartner-Hype curve and has no scientific basis whatsoever. It's been debunked multiple times.

But yeah, I'm at the top of the rollercoaster.


MightyDickTwist t1_jeawm5l wrote

Also, the thing about AI is that it isn't one technology. How can we determine the "hype curve" of an entire field? We have multiple models, multiple training methods, multiple technologies.

Perhaps one could argue for hype curves for each model type, like pix2pix, but I don't think this applies to AI as a whole.


yaosio t1_jec9pjc wrote

Where's the "depressed and just want to" oh you mean in regards to AI. Dussiluionmemt. I'll probably be dead from a health problem before AGI happens, and even if it does happen before then it will be AGI in the same way a baby has general intelligence.


meatlamma t1_jeca3c8 wrote

I've been using gpt4 for some time now (I have the dev invite and subscribe to gptChat +). I am a softwr engineer with 20+ years of experience. Some things GPT outputs are really good and feel magic. However, anything slightly more advanced (as in coding) it is bad, like really really bad, not even junior level programmer bad, but much worse.

I highly recommend the paper that came out from MSFT last week "Sparks of intelligence of GPT4" (or something like that) It does a great analysis.

This is my approach on using GPT: If the task at hand is of low cognitive effort for me but tedious, I get GPT to do it. If the task would be hard for me to do (as in you need to take out a pen and paper and doodle stuff), I won't even dare to ask GPt to do it, it will be nothing by disappointment and more importantly, wasted time. So I'll do that one myself.


anaIconda69 t1_jea3xkj wrote

All over the place depending on tool.


No-Concert4588 t1_jea5lpr wrote

This i probably right but the plateau is at different levels for different technologies. For a lot of inventions like electric lights or the diesel engine the plateau is way above the expectation level. For things like bitcoin it’s probably going to plateau way below the expectations. We’ll see where AI ends up.


raika11182 t1_jead8zl wrote

Every time I hit the plateau of productivity the technology advances again by leaps and bounds, so I'll let you know when the ride stops for a minute...


albanywairoa t1_jeafpfq wrote

I am definitely "Peak of Inflated Expectations."


fluffy_assassins t1_jeag3b3 wrote

Slope of enlightenment.

Innovation Trigger was a game I played in the 1990's that used an AI character.

Trough of disillusionment? Chatbots on the web.

Enlightenment? Years ago seeing rudimentary AI-generated music on youtube videos.

Now I'm just like... dafuq...


Arowx t1_jeaip6u wrote

I would like to think were on the Slope of Enlightenment as GPT tools help us but there is the possibility that were just excited about a big pattern matching chat bot and somewhere on the way to the Peak of Inflated Expectations.

I'll go with 80:20 optimistic but also afraid of what might happen next.


GoodAndBluts t1_jeajipc wrote

The curve is a good one - in recent times it applies to automated driving, and how we were raving about it 5 years ago. You could even apply it to the concept of a metavers, were quite a few people (less cynical than me) were hyped for about the metaverse 12 months ago

This AI technology is astonishing - but it likely has some limitations that will come to light over the next months.

One possible one is the same as people say about AI Art - "it doesnt make anything new, it just rehashes other peoples work" - if there genuinely is a spark of creativity at the heart of good art and inventions... it isnt baked into something like chatGPT. Perhaps its better to think of it as something like electricity or air travel - it enables some neat things, but isnt very exciting until it is combined with human inginuity


NeonCityNights t1_jeal2n2 wrote

I have no idea. Although using the tools is fun, I just dread how I'm going to have to adapt and adjust my career because of this. Before just a few months ago I was utterly unaware of how sophisticated AI had become


AmericanDidgeridoo t1_jealmbk wrote

Beginning? I don’t know how to use any of this yet, I know smart people are figuring out ways to do cool stuff but I’m still wrapping my head around it.


afighteroffoo t1_jeazv9s wrote

The hype cycle is meant to represent the maturation and adoption of a specific technology. It's more appropriate to ask, for example, where the large language model is on the graph. I think it's at the very beginning for society at large.

The general public is dimly aware of the new thing that might take all our jobs but it's barely on the radar and I'd wager that in most parts of the world, it isn't on the radar at all.

It may turn out to have a very shallow curve as the technology is developing so quickly. I think people continue to be surprised by the capability of things like gpt-4 and other large reinforcement learning models.

There's also the phenomenon of capability overhang. The creators themselves don't know what all models like gpt-4 are capable of when put in the hands of the public. People are feverishly looking for ways to make it more capable by giving it access to the internet, long term memory, and looping it back on itself.

So it's hard to say that people have inflated expectations except among a demographic comprised of subs like this one.


Bajous t1_jeb04n3 wrote

Where do you think the guy who posted about being the best coder in the world is?


RavenWolf1 t1_jebcti1 wrote

It plateaus when every star has Dyson sphere.


qepdibpbfessttrud t1_jecgpqr wrote

The trick is that innovation doesn't end in the case of AI. Unless a lot of smart people are missing something fundamental about intelligence, development of AI is perpetual escalating fountain of innovation


Shaka_Walls t1_jech4w5 wrote

Well, considering this meme only shows up before peak inflated expectations, id say probably before that.


RLMinMaxer t1_jed8xiz wrote

Inflated expectations: Early 2023
Disillusionment: Mid 2023
Enlightenment: Late 2023


boreddaniel02 t1_jea6oge wrote

I don't conform to this curve. I do not believe it is accurate to how I view things.