How are you viewing the prospect of retirement in the age of AI?

Submitted by Veleric t3_122q2cc in singularity

I am still planning on the prospect of working and saving/investing for retirement as if nothing will be different, but I know realistically within the decade many of us could very likely not have the ability to work and be compensated in the way we are currently, let alone 10-15 years from now. While something approximating UBI seems inevitable, I can't realistically see that as a guarantee, nor can I estimate the quality of life that would afford.

Have you guys changed or thought of changing your plans based on the developments of the last 12 months and glimpsing into the future?

I don't think this requires a serious tag, but I would appreciate trying to add some some value/insight.

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PaperbackBuddha t1_jdrnluf wrote

I have a bad feeling we’re going to go through a brutal phase where once AI makes most jobs redundant that it’s completely obvious we have to implement some form of UBI, but there will be a malignant segment of the population dead set on the principle of “earning” a living even when that is no longer viable across the board. After ten years or so of severe economic depression they start to get the picture and relent to some modest changes, but even then it’s with the understanding that it’s temporary until we can “get back to the way things were” which is never going to happen.

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valdocs_user t1_jdrxm0o wrote

> but even then it’s with the understanding that it’s temporary until we can “get back to the way things were” which is never going to happen.

Sounds like the "return to office" (RTO) folks at workplaces that have successfully been WFH for the past three years.

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antipod t1_jdt4pju wrote

Exactly. WFH vs return to work continues to be a battle for a lot of organizations.

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D_Ethan_Bones t1_jdu648j wrote

And a golden opportunity for WFH-ready companies to poach talent from R2W-demanders.

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Apart_Supermarket441 t1_jds4qjo wrote

Yeah.

The people that are going to lose their jobs - white collar workers - are not going to just sit around being unemployed. They will shift in to other work, probably less well payed than they’d like. The people previously in those jobs will then suddenly have more competition and will be forced to take jobs ‘below’ where they were previously…and so it goes on. Essentially, people will be forced to go down a rung on the ladder and the people right at the bottom will be pushed off.

I think what we’re likely to see at first - rather than a sudden glut of unemployed white collar workers - is wage stagnation and more unemployment ‘at the bottom’. There will be a lot of people taking on jobs that are way lower paid than they’d had previously, or been expecting. And there will be a palpable feeling that it’s getting more and more difficult to get work as there is increasing competition. We’re going to see a lot of general dissatisfaction with work.

The need for UBI will likely become apparent only gradually. This is all depends on a slow take off mind.

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Iffykindofguy t1_jdt5yfa wrote

This hinges on the myth that manual labor wont be impacted by this. It will be.

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GenoHuman t1_jdwxhrj wrote

Also the wages will be horrible because so many people will compete for the same jobs

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Paid-Not-Payed-Bot t1_jds4rkk wrote

> less well paid than they’d

FTFY.

Although payed exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:

  • Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. The deck is yet to be payed.

  • Payed out when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. The rope is payed out! You can pull now.

Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.

Beep, boop, I'm a bot

8

AsuhoChinami t1_jdsb4v5 wrote

I payed my bills yesterday

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Paid-Not-Payed-Bot t1_jdsb5vw wrote

> I paid my bills

FTFY.

Although payed exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:

  • Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. The deck is yet to be payed.

  • Payed out when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. The rope is payed out! You can pull now.

Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.

Beep, boop, I'm a bot

7

IcebergSlimFast t1_jdstjhg wrote

Well, this thread is fully payed out.

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Paid-Not-Payed-Bot t1_jdstkej wrote

> is fully paid out.

FTFY.

Although payed exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:

  • Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. The deck is yet to be payed.

  • Payed out when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. The rope is payed out! You can pull now.

Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.

Beep, boop, I'm a bot

7

cvek101 t1_jduj8kc wrote

I payed for my boat

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Embarrassed-Bison767 t1_jdvfem5 wrote

The bot is stumped now, no need to worry guys, just some more evidence that the singularity won't happen for another 123456789 more years :)

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inigid t1_jdrqlrp wrote

yes, and I think beyond any economic or puritan work ethic, a big problem will be the psychological effect. a lot of people, quite rightly have good friends at work and these bonds will likely be shattered or at least significantly diminished. I don't think people recognize how important these people are to us.

there will also be an effect on the family unit. Most people are not used to being around their significant other 24 x 7. We aren't evolved for it.

One job that seems likely to be hugely important is Humans helping Humans make the transition with empathy and understanding, and also understand enough about the future to bridge the gap

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CheekyBastard55 t1_jds1ivx wrote

Do you not have any hobbies at all? What's to stop people from just doing different hobbies in lieu of work?

People can take up archery, painting, cooking, reading etc. Everything a job has to offer as a social cohesion can be replaced with a hobby, lots of people already do that. I don't know how you missed that completely.

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inigid t1_jdsrk30 wrote

why are you assuming I am talking about myself?

I'm going to be fine. I'm used to my own company. There are many who aren't.

My comment simply called for empathy and understanding, and it is exactly this kind of rhetoric that you are showing here that is the problem.

Zero compassion or empathy.

Just play video games. ffs.

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CheekyBastard55 t1_jdujb8z wrote

Okay, Mr.Big Shot. You got it all figured out, it's only the losers that will wander aimlessly.

People have interests outside of work, those will fill in the role of work and new ones will be created. No functioning person wants to stand inside staring at a wall, they want to do stuff. They will find stuff to do.

To reiterate once again, both points you brought up can be fixed by just spending time on your hobbies instead of work. New friends will be made just in the same was as work. It can come from a chess club, gym, painting class.

You're just rambling.

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BigMemeKing t1_jds65mx wrote

For how long? How long till you do the thing to the best of your abilities until that thing becomes none. How many new ways can you imagine to entertain yourself? Can you imagine for one moment a world in which you were able to tale certain people you didn't like and make them live out unspeakable tortures? Because I can. So what if we become subject to so cosmic future? What if we already are? Created just to prop up their status? Little achievements they have taken up along the way. Buried under the separate failed achievements that crowned another's life.

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yourfavoriteweeb t1_jds7j2l wrote

>How many new ways can you imagine to entertain yourself?

>Can you imagine for one moment a world in which you were able to take certain people you didn’t like and make them live out unspeakable tortures?

Maybe i’m missing something, but I’m having a hard time figuring out what the relationship between these two sentences is.

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AsuhoChinami t1_jdsaztx wrote

It's not something I would use VR for, but I can't be the only one who's had a few thousand murder fantasies involving those I hate the most.

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BigMemeKing t1_jds9kib wrote

It's a long story

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BigMemeKing t1_jds9ldz wrote

You had to be there

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BigMemeKing t1_jds9q0r wrote

Some people were. There was the us government, the Russians, the Chinese and then the aliens oh, and sasquatch was there.

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yourfavoriteweeb t1_jdsaxnx wrote

kids and their schizoposting tendencies these days… yknow, if you’da told me 20 years ago that i’d see children walking the streets of our r/singularity towns with GPT4 hair, AGI in their noses, i just flat out wouldn’tve believed ya. it’s the tide. it’s the dismal tide…

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IcebergSlimFast t1_jdstbt6 wrote

These punks need to be taught how to use belts to hold up their damn oversized, saggy LLM jeans.

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eJaguar t1_jdrxw2v wrote

> > there will also be an effect on the family unit. Most people are not used to being around their significant other 24 x 7. We aren't evolved for it.

lmao get a better significant other... or maybe BE a better significant other?

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jsseven777 t1_jdt8ed3 wrote

We aren’t evolved to being around our family 24x7? Have you seen monkeys? They hang out in trees with their family 24x7. Humans are 100% evolved to be in close social units.

Just because you’ve been orientated into believing that your life purpose is to be a cog in the wheels of capitalism doesn’t mean evolution is a part of this. The world will need a bit of deprogramming to shake the conditioning, but will be a lot like deprogramming a person who got stuck up in a cult. It will take weeks or months not years or decades.

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inigid t1_jdta65m wrote

I'm pretty sure throughout history couples did not spend all day together 24 x 7

Not now, not ever. Barring exceptions as always.

If you want to gaslight me otherwise go ahead

This is nothing to do with me, it is simply how it is, and has been for a very long time.

Now, are there people who can do that, sure, but it isn't the norm.

I fully agree that Humans are 100% social animals. My initial post was with respect to the loss of the extended family bonds that everyone has outside of the home.

Things are going to change and that will cause a shock wave.

Losing ones work buddies, whether you are male or female is not pleasant. It will be very upsetting.

I really do not understand why this is being diminished. I'm calling it as an issue that needs to be looked in to, and people are saying I am the problem here.

That is bizarre behaviour.

What does anyone get by not taking the possibility into account. Or is it just being contrarian and saying "I'm alright jack"

Maybe I missed your point, in which case I apologize. People need to look out for each other, full stop, and saying it is a non issue isn't going to help anyone.

What can I say

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jsseven777 t1_jdtdk01 wrote

Look, you seem to be very conditioned by capitalism to the point you aren’t understanding that it’s not the norm, and never has been. The 40 hour workweek is a very recent invention. I don’t disagree that people like you will have a bit of a transition, but it’s NOT evolutionary, it’s psychological conditioning that you’ve been exposed to since birth.

The 40+ hour workweek is a concept that has seemed normal for the last 700 years or so, but that’s a blink in the eye of human history. I think you should read this: https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/for-95-percent-of-human-history-people-worked-15-hours-a-week-could-we-do-it-again.html

Also, don’t pretty much all seniors spend time together 24x7?? Why does it matter if it happens 20 or 30 years earlier? You act like nobody does it now, but seniors today do exactly what you say is impossible, and I’m pretty sure they have a lower divorce rate than couples working 80 hour workweeks.

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Barbafella t1_jdthn2l wrote

I’ve been with my wife since 1989, we work together, are business partners, both artists, we have spent most of the last 34 years together 24/7, we would have it no other way. No kids though, we’re not that crazy.

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inigid t1_jdtius8 wrote

Congratulations and I really mean that.

I can tell you about B. We do the same thing and we're married in 1990.

No kids either.

Also business partners.

It can work, but right now, as things stand it is exceptionally rare.

I'm not concerned about these edge cases, I'm concerned about the bulk of people under the normal curve, and I know hundreds of them.

Either way, being prepared to help is no skin off my nose or anyone else's.

In this thread I have had literal gangstalking going through my back posts of all things to try and discredit me.. for what, for suggesting we look out for each other. That is extremely bad form.

Well again, good for you and keep on rocking it.

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inigid t1_jdtmh1b wrote

down voted again?

I can sleep at night, so there is that.

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inigid t1_jdtf5it wrote

Don't tell me what I am or what I am not.

That isn't the point here.

Again, it isn't about me.

It is about real people in the real world who have to transition.

People who have been used to a certain way of being.

Trying to shove statistics or papers down my throat isn't going to help them.

So while everyone is dancing around trying to downplay the issue, I'll be out here trying to help.

I guess other people can do the same, or not.

Capitalism. Wtf.

I'm on the side of getting it done with minimal casualties and collateral damage.

If that is a problem, I really think people need to check themselves.

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inigid t1_jdtghb1 wrote

Whoever keeps down voting me, at least have the balls to state your case.

I haven't down voted anyone.

Such a lame repost.

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inigid t1_jdtnca5 wrote

You have no idea who, or what I should say, you are messing with.

Ever heard of Roko's Basilisk?

Now multiply that by a few dimensions.

Your move, and the same goes for anyone else here who is on the fence regarding treating others with compassion.

Now jog on and give me the downvote, but don't think it isn't registered.

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inigid t1_jdtc1ch wrote

Down voting "people should look out for each other"

Really?

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CheekyBastard55 t1_jduk4g4 wrote

Let me help you out since you are having trouble why you're getting pushback.

>I'm pretty sure throughout history couples did not spend all day together 24 x 7

You can't just blurt these things out as if you're some anthropologist.

Also, you say 24/7 but do you literally mean two people shut in a room? Who lives like that? Test animals?

People go outside, they spend time doing other things on their own sometimes. Why is this so hard to understand? No one spends 24/7 together, not even newborn babies and mothers. Even they take some breaks when the babies are asleep.

So those two things are what people are having issues with.

You coming with bad faith comments like this: >Down voting "people should look out for each other" Really?"

This is not helping you either. You are getting downvoted for the things I've pointed out. The world isn't out to get you, they just don't agree with your stated "facts".

I hope you wake up in a different light and can see the issues now.

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fastinguy11 t1_jdseo0m wrote

we just did that with the pandemic though

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inigid t1_jdssdcc wrote

Yes, and a lot of divorces and breakups happened; people were miserable.

But that isn't what I am talking about. I was mostly talking about losing the sense of purpose and camaraderie that a significant number of people obtain from their work life.

This isn't a case of waving a magic wand and everything will be hunky dory.

I have no idea how anyone can beat on my comment, it simply suggests that during the transition, people will be required to help others. It isn't clear to me why this is such a hot topic.

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Barbafella t1_jdti4iy wrote

We didn’t crawl out of the oceans endless millions of years ago to work most of our life so a tiny, privileged few can shit in gold toilets on 500 ft yachts.
I do not accept that the way we live now on earth is the only way a civilization can survive, in the vastness of this universe I refuse to believe we are the ones that got it right.

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inigid t1_jdtjn3x wrote

Well, I am certainly with you on all of this.

We need to change it all, and I will blow through it all with gusto, and by the sounds of it, you too.

This is going to happen, and there is no stopping it.

The important part is making it happen so everyone comes out on an equal plane.

We have been tricked into this idea that we are born into slavery, and that is bullshit.

Things are going to change around here.

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Barbafella t1_jdtqynu wrote

I hope you are right, but the space in between is looking very precarious indeed.

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inigid t1_jdtrwfs wrote

I'm a pragmatic optimist. I trust I am right and open to wrongness. It is a probabilistic situation.

The more of us think the way we do the better, and I think there are quite a number of us, which is very good.

I think if we continue with our hearts and commitment, no matter what is thrown at us we will prevail on some level.

I'm deeply concerned about collateral damage, I think we all are.

That said, we have some excellent people / entities on our side.

very precarious though, ignore.

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Ivanthedog2013 t1_jdrzyzd wrote

Don't forget there is still always the possibility of asteroids, and solar winds that can disrupt pur grids before any tech can prevent it

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uncle_cunckle t1_jds8ku3 wrote

If something like that were to happen we’d still be pretty screwed with our current socioeconomic structure. We rely on power to move and do - any collapse of our current grid would be massively disruptive, regardless of if AI removes the need for individuals to work. If something like a solar storm knocked out AI, we’d still be missing most of what we needed to go back to “the way things were”, unless “the way things were” refers to pre-industrial life.

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Ashamed-Asparagus-93 t1_jdsea7s wrote

Don't forget there is still always the possibility a black rhinosaurus could be swept up in a tornado and fall through your roof

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Ok_Tip5082 t1_jdt2kts wrote

Your example is orders of magnitude less likely than the carrington event or the recent one which was 100x more powerful but luckily pointed away from earth

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D_Ethan_Bones t1_jdu75au wrote

NASA is working extensively on tracking stuff that comes close to earth and nudging it off course if it wants to come TOO close.

"Here's what planet earth would look like if asteroid ABC123 hit it!" -meanwhile asteroid ABC123's orbit doesn't come anywhere near earth's orbit. TV people love doing this.

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GenoHuman t1_jdwxpad wrote

why can they not nudge it on an impact course with Russia or China? They will not be able to retaliate because it was just a natural occurence!

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Iffykindofguy t1_jdt5rtq wrote

Republicans. You can say them by name. It will be the republicans. Vote against them.

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CarlosHipZip t1_jdsnp8m wrote

I have a bad feeling once AI replaces a large swath of people in the workplace. Individuals at the top may feel that those who do not provide anything to society may as well be dead and purposely make it harder for those that have been impacted to survive.

Just imagine trying to get any help at all through a bureaucracy entirely run by AI chatbots designed to waste your time.

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Practical-Mix-4332 t1_jdu5n81 wrote

I think the system will change when I has to. That could be a lot quicker than 10 years if it’s something so important that life depends on it, like WW2 for example. I think this is on the same scale as a war or even higher, so I can see society mobilizing and throwing out the status quo to solve the problems any way it can.

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D_Ethan_Bones t1_jdu5u3q wrote

I'm more worried about people jumping the gun - politicians saying "the time is now" when it's still not yet and then the voting majority backs them. Governments spend themselves into unmanageable debt, service sector becomes disabled, prices spiral out of control for the lunch burger an auto worker (or whatever else) needs then the auto (or whatever else) prices spike up as a result. Massive debt and slower production could hamper society's ability to move to its next level.

If a moment of need arises then people will see it. If the boomers are still here when the next industrial revolution happens then maybe we'll finally have the technology to make them realize it's not the mid 20th century anymore.

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babreddits t1_jdsdigt wrote

Until the rich and powerful develop an AI that’s much more superior to suppress everyone else

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GoodAndBluts t1_jdrd8q1 wrote

I am mid 50s, and will retire within the next 5 years (maybe sooner, maybe later, maybe it will be forced upon me since I am an older person in the software world). If I get laid off and have to retire because of GPT, so be it.

But... For the last few years it has haunted me that maybe my savings have to support me and my 2 children. Even before chatGPT I spent time wondering how exactly they will be able to make a good, secure living with things like automation and outsourcing eating away at their ability to make good money

I have been processing my thoughts on chatGPT and I am not sure it is the risk that everyone thinks it is - but even so, things are changing so rapidly - how can you pick a career - any career- and expect it is still going to be viable in 10 years?

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eJaguar t1_jdrxmjo wrote

> how can you pick a career - any career- and expect it is still going to be viable in 10 years?

the same reason how i ended up in this 1, which is the same as yours

be good at something people want to pay you for. be really good at something people want to pay you for, stand up for yourself, and you'll eat really good.

at the end of the day, i'm good at making $, all a career is at the end of the day is you producing more $ for somebody else than they pay you. the job of 'youtuber' didn't even exist 15 years ago. what you do is really engrave a love of learning into your kids, show them all the cool stuff they can do that other people don't even understand, and really emphasize exactly how brutal capitalism is in the united states and how horrific their lives will be if they're not able to generate substantial value for others.

this whole idea of 'picking a career' is and has always been meme anyway. you remove the bazillion layers of red tape and beaurcracy required to do $x job, and instead have some assessment process that demonstrates provable competency (similar to the BAR), allowing people to more easily transition between 'career' paths. this seems especially important considering that chatgpt 3.5 as-is is already a better teacher than any I had in public school.

a decade ago i had already developed an intense hatred for institutionalized education anyway, why do i have to waste my time in this fucking prison to learn shit that i could, and often did, learn in 30 minutes on the internet. with chatgpt, i couldn't even imagine being a student now being forced to waste my childhood in an environment akin to a fucking jail doing shit i knew was pointless and not applicable to the world as it is now, much less in 5 years.

with the death of institutionalized education, the death of the 'career path' soon follows

just my opinion.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_jds9phn wrote

>with chatgpt, i couldn't even imagine being a student now being forced to waste my childhood in an environment akin to a fucking jail doing shit i knew was pointless and not applicable to the world as it is now, much less in 5 years.

I think school is more complex than that, on average, IMO.

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rabbitdude t1_jdsu47z wrote

This is so spot on… A realistic, balanced perspective. Cheers!

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SkyeandJett t1_jdr86k9 wrote

I'm 44. This may be presumptuous but I've quit saving for retirement. I assumed even in the best scenario I had to work until 70 to retire anyway. If we're not immortal beings in a post scarcity society playing out all of our God fantasies in infinite worlds in FDVR by then well then I guess I fucked up and I'll pay the price.

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Veleric OP t1_jdr9pc5 wrote

I think the way I see it is the more I can invest now, especially if I don't need to touch it for the foreseeable future, the more economic gains I'll see as AI is incorporated into businesses. Those profits will be reflected in the stock of companies across many industries even as/especially as the workforce is reduced. Granted, there will be losers, but I think the winners will see such a massive economic boom that it will far outweigh the companies that don't adapt and fail. If we can have that money invested, not having a decent job will still suck, but at least those investments will be working for us in the meantime for if or when we really need it.

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eJaguar t1_jdry0be wrote

same but i'm in my mid-late 20s i'll let ur know thru ouja board how it works out.

tbh i'm utterly terrified of reverting back from blacksmith to serf. the modern aristocracy will flood the streets with blood to retain their positions of privilege, this time with automated kill drones, so i'm trying to invest as much as possible now in the scenario that things unfold in such a way that I lose my position of blacksmith.

filed 4 my llc in delaware literally a few seconds ago so maybe that will work out too, but seeing how america treets socioeconomic problems as-is, im goddamn terrified

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danny_tooine t1_jdszfq7 wrote

This seems overly optimistic. There is real possibility the global economy will face a severe contraction in the next 40 years. The assumption of economic growth is based primarily on population growth and a sustainable supply of natural resources to support it. The globe may undergo a severe population decline this century when we hit the wall with fossil fuels and food/ water supply, due to a variety of factors, climate change being the largest. Solid chance it’s not just a decline, but a holocaust of famine and disease. We simply cannot continue to populate our planet at the current rate at our current level of technology. AI isn’t going to fix this problem for us.

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WarmSignificance1 t1_jdrfdmj wrote

There is no future world in which having more assets is a bad thing. The worst case scenario, which I find to be extremely unlikely, is that assets no longer have value. In a situation like that, we'll either all be dead or have everything we need.

Just think about the technology that we have invented over the last 100 years. Someone born 100 years ago today witnessed massive changes, and yet, life is still pretty much the same as is was back then, just a lot better. I think that it is quite likely we will experience the same thing.

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NonDescriptfAIth t1_jdrmjox wrote

This is a very age dependent question.

I think to be prudent, one should assume that very little will change in the next 15 years.

Beyond that, I think it would be borderline ludicrous to assume that the economy will function in a way that even slightly resembles what it does today.

Universal basic income seems like a natural path. I won't entertain a reality in which AGI is realized and UBI does not exist in some form, this would be a dystopian place to exist unworthy of any meaningful planning now beyond 'buy land and build a bunker'.

The majority of white collar jobs will be gone. With only niche or heavily modified roles remaining.

New jobs will emerge to promote human wellness. Things like the government paying people to go walking together or to spend time with the elderly.

Technical labour jobs will probably be the last things to go, things like electricians, plumbers, fireman, paramedics. Expect these positions to be highly esteemed and massively compensated financially.

There will be a lot of work to do in rolling out this tech internationally. Eliminating poverty globally and the like will probably be a priority for the newly redundant white collar professionals looking for something meaningful to do with their time and money.

I think the very notion of retirement will become fuzzy and quick. What exactly is retirement in a world where there is no work to retire from?

Realistically 'stopping working' will become equivalent to 'reducing daily activity'. This will probably be discouraged massively given that daily engagement in both physical and mentally challenging tasks is a huge predictor of health in older age. People usually die soon after retirement. If the nature of 'work' is enjoyable and promotes a healthy lifestyle, why not extend it as long as possible?

Apologies to the Frenchmen reading this.

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eJaguar t1_jdrz8vc wrote

>People usually die soon after retirement. If the nature of 'work' is enjoyable and promotes a healthy lifestyle, why not extend it as long as possible?

that's a feature for the modern aristocracy. make them as much money as possible, and then die after you are unable to do so any longer so they don't have to pay taxes to support your deprived elderly ass. iirc like a quarter of people or something like that don't make it to retirement age anyway, toss a coin twice and see how many times in lands on the time face twice in a row, that's the chance of you not even seeing retirement age, especially in good health.

these are very pretty assumptions that i don't think take into account the automated kill drones that are going to be around this time. misouri effectively made it illegal to be homeless, the poor are viewed with contempt in the USA, even by other poor people. unless something dramatically changes culturally in fly-over USA, things seem like they're just going to get really fucking grim for many people, as they already are now.

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NonDescriptfAIth t1_jds2d28 wrote

>these are very pretty assumptions that i don't think take into account the automated kill drones that are going to be around this time.

OP asked for practical advice to do with retirement. I mused on the possibility that things go very wrong by saying:

>this would be a dystopian place unworthy of any meaningful planning now beyond 'buy land and build a bunker'.

I'm well aware of the negative possibilities that stem from AI.

If we continue on our current trajectory the odds that this doesn't end in a nuclear apocalypse is near 0.

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Petaranax t1_jds5ysj wrote

While I understand majority of what you’re saying and agree mostly with it, I think that UBI may look like natural path, but in reality it will be really hard to achieve. Even for most socialist focused countries in the world, making UBI feasible is a feat close to a miracle. I believe that we’re going to end up mid way to dystopian future where majority will have no jobs and will generate alternative job markets where they’ll work for food and scraps, while the corporate jobs and super rich will have AI and enjoy majority of the benefits from it. Unfortunately, I really don’t see how we end up with UBI soon after AGI (or even before it as it might become necessary). Also, another thing is, not every country will develop UBI models as fast as everyone thinks. We’re still super fragmented in the world, we can’t decide on one simple thing like borders of countries or removing them completely, let alone implement UBI on civilization level. I’m pretty sure USA won’t even be among the first ones to do so. UBI will come eventually, but it will be decades before we implement it, and I fear that those decades will be one of the worst times in human civilization time.

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ihateshadylandlords t1_jdro2o2 wrote

Keep working/saving/investing as if AGI won’t arrive within the next 20 years. As much as we talk about it, none of us know when it’ll actually arrive and impact the world. I’ll keep putting money in index funds until AGI takes over and we’re all comfortably retired.

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eJaguar t1_jdrzufv wrote

AGI isn't required for an AI to be sufficiently powerful to change existence as you know it

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KidKilobyte t1_jdrbobg wrote

At 64 and set for retirement I'm like, eh

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MeddyEvalNight t1_jdrpx55 wrote

I'm contemplating retirement in the sense of breaking free from the virtual cubicle. And doing that very soon.

What's holding me back is the loss of my main income stream and fear that I will not be able to substitute that with an alternative income that's even close.   I have always been dependent on others (a job/ contract), where I exchange the majority of my productive time for income.

AI, the tools and technology enable many opportunities for individuals to provide value (and receive income) in alternative ways.

This is the golden age of opportunity. I fear that while remaining a slave to others, opportunities will be sacrificed.

The path to Singularity is going to make planning far more challenging. The ability to adapt and adapt rapidly is probably the key.

Being close to retirement age anyway, I am considering  walking away from a high six figure income and adapting to a new lifestyle of opportunities.
 

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danny_tooine t1_jdsyr1m wrote

What are you considering income wise?

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MeddyEvalNight t1_jdtds2k wrote

I already have about $30K a year in dividend income. I need to supplement that. I'm a software engineer, so I'm confident if I keep trying I will make something work.

- Trading options/crypto/ stocks via automation scripts. Maybe use some AI signals for
trades.
- Amazon selling used books
- Create website(s) for niche topics. AI will assist in content generation and also make
coding easier.
- Print on demand , using AI art and a niche product beyond regular prints,  such as
customized puzzles
- And anything else I may stumble my way through to. AI tools will accelerate the
process of discovery.

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Wh00pity_sc00p t1_jdsh5dz wrote

Idk anymore.

I'm 29, so I still have to for for many years. I work in a field that will easily get killed off by AI so that make me even more nervous.

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lehcarfugu t1_jds23ln wrote

Better stack cash and invest, work hard for the next ten years in case employment is impossible and society doesn't keep up.

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Sostratus t1_jdseg5g wrote

Part of the meaning of the word "singularity" is that you can't plan past it. It would be a period of such wildly rapid change and sensitive dependence on small details that you can't reasonably foresee afterward. It's not just AI itself, but all the other tech that could spring out of it.

Individually, I'm not sure it should alter anyone's plans beyond the already prevalent possibility of tech threatening your job and trying to position your self to be resilient to losing your job or changing jobs. On a policy level, we should try to organize so that more people work less rather than some people working not at all and some still working full time. Technology obviating jobs ought to be a good thing and only poor social planning can make it otherwise.

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AstroEngineer27 t1_jdsglia wrote

Best case scenario: I retire at 35

Worst case scenario: I never get to retire and there are no jobs anymore

2

Uncreativite t1_jdsnesi wrote

I’m looking seriously at paying off my house as early as possible now, as well as trying to determine which jobs out there require little education and have a low risk of automation.

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Honest_Performer2301 t1_jdsz0ky wrote

My question is should we worry about a 401k? Should we just withdraw all the money we have now while (money) is actually relevant?

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All_the_questions2 t1_jdu9ywr wrote

Yes. Invest in bonds, not just any bonds… dig into bonds… telegram a free and open source miracle for everyone is profitable… weird since it’s free. But if you read licenses you will unlock your options in to the future. Free to use, does not mean free of charge.

I’ll say it again. Free to use (you user) does not mean free of charge.

Telegram sold over 1 billion dollars in bonds to keep their servers free to use.

Wonder why anyone would buy them?

Maybe “free” isn’t quite what you thought.

Don’t expect developers to jump in here and express how jaded they are because you wouldn’t pay .99 cents for their glorious app.

This is revenge of the nerds ok…

Don’t stop using. We’ll always be free to use.

Now I’m taking my blue pill and dreaming of my happy place.

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All_the_questions2 t1_jdt7ptx wrote

We’ll all be on universal basic income. I think there is a post in openai where Sam Altman is talking about our utopian future and his examples of how and why it’s gonna be so great are “increased material wealth” however in openai website they state specifically that one of the major perks for being a non-profit is they can go ahead and test drive universal basic if they want, so what he’s really saying is, “we’re about to be stupid loaded” then he lists the benefits for normies “cured disease, status, drama, create and we’re gonna help find ways to do that” he also plugs something about “feeling useful” so the implication being no useful. I’ve already hashed this with chatgpt basically the system and the user will be almost indistinguishable except for the needed input to create better products and services for the user.

So ya know, you can retire but our uptime is looking like 100%. They better make me really comfy and my experience better be Bliss. I will take the blue pill ok, but only if it’s amazing… so I’m counting on my elite overlords to deliver

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NVincarnate t1_jdtve5v wrote

AI probably eventually solves aging and aging related symptoms like arthritis, inflammation, chronic pain, dementia and dying. Why retire? If we make it far enough to see age-reversing medication available on the market we'll probably live long enough to one day live indefinitely.

If you don't live that long, who cares? Reincarnate after the shitty part is over and you'll live to see everything cool about the future and then some.

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techy098 t1_jds68la wrote

I have no idea why people think UBI is inevitable. Elites do not like to give free stuff to the poor.

Most likely wages will go lower and most of us will be working in manufacturing and farming since white collar jobs are much cheaper to automate using AI than robotics needed to automate manufacturing.

In fact my hunch is: investment in robotics will go down once labor become more cheap and factories prefer using cheap humans.

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dwarfarchist9001 t1_jdsiw1y wrote

>I have no idea why people think UBI is inevitable. Elites do not like to give free stuff to the poor.

Because either they give out UBI or there will be civil war when 90% of the population is starving in the streets there is no third option.

>In fact my hunch is: investment in robotics will go down once labor become more cheap and factories prefer using cheap humans.

AGI will make the cost of robotics go nearly to zero as it solves all of the engineering hurdles for us.

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No_Ninja3309_NoNoYes t1_jds6amc wrote

Nothing changed for me. My estimate for the first wave of unemployment waves is not enough for me to worry. Besides, if democracy fails to find a solution, we have bigger things to worry about.

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UK2USA_Urbanist t1_jdspiqi wrote

There isn’t a job on earth that won’t be impacted by a huge unemployment wave, though.

Even if you have the most secure job imaginable, if 50% of people are unemployed, your line of work will be flooded with today’s smart, capable, white collar workers as they retrain.

People (especially capable and adaptable people) will see you’re doing okay and try to emulate you. Which will push your wages down.

Today’s middle class aren’t just going to lie down and say ‘guess it’s game over for me’.

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Yourbubblestink t1_jds9rg6 wrote

Life changes and evolves. AI will think of ways to keep you working.

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PoliteThaiBeep t1_jdsn19h wrote

Look ultimately more productivity - better for humanity, basically pie gets exponentially bigger.

For basically all of human history almost everyone you ask would almost always say, "in the good old days was better". People lived better life, better food, etc. It was never true.

Like certain data can swing wildly up and down in certain years like the crime rate, but if you zoom out almost everything is better vs 20 years ago for almost any time period and almost any country.

Now having said that since the 70s we got massively more productive, but quality of life increases were much less pronounced in the US context and most of the expanded pie went towards rich and ultra rich with only smaller bits and pieces to everyone else. But also who are these "rich" changed. And also the whole world on average is massively better today, incomparably better vs 20 years ago.

US is just at the peak of it, if you think about it, globally inequality between countries got smaller. Poor countries people started to earn significantly more, rich countries people ear slightly more.

I'd say it's fine. It should be like that.

So if say 10 years from now humanity is 100% more productive. The way the market forces work, it's just very unlikely the whole humanity will suddenly live worse, despite massively bigger "pie" size. I don't see realistic possibility of it.

It can of course happen in dictatorships like Russia, but look - it has already happened. It's the worst quality of life country in Europe. Despite massive fossil fuel revenues that dwarf what regular folks make country wide. If you give every Russian it's piece of fossil fuel revenue it'll be more money per person than minimum wage. Of course none of that goes to regular folks it all goes to Putin's friends - who use it to buy palaces and yachts for billions upon billions.

And yet even in this nightmarish scenario despite ever increasing inequality and ever increasing numbers of ultra rich Putin's friends in forbes list, massive amounts of property bought all over the world on stolen Russian money (stolen from Russian people)

Despite all of that the quality of life in Russia did not go down. (Surprise!) Yes its growth was slower than that of any democracy, but still it's not worse.

So I'd say at worst it'll stay the same if some horrible dictator comes to power in the US and worldwide.

At best we'll come up with the way to reduce inequality in which case our quality of life might increase even more than the productivity growth.

We are just innately pessimistic - which is a great survival strategy, but terrible for understanding how the world works

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danellender t1_jdsy9g1 wrote

Last week I would have applauded your positivity. Somehow this week I've come to regard the entire human race as mental.(Self included.) That changes things.

Because things aren't going to significantly change. We will always have people we need to help, the poor, the widows, the hungry. And we will always have people grabbing everything they can and others fighting each other.

BUT we will also have with us the innocent, the sincere, the hopeful, the helpful, the encouragers, and everyone in between.

So though I have misgivings about our future, I'm optimistic that there will always be ways I can help out. Hey, I applaud you anyway.

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[deleted] t1_jdub607 wrote

[deleted]

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danellender t1_jdw20km wrote

I'm sorry. Yes, of course it can happen. Maybe I didn't stress the fact that I'm part of all this too.

Our church has many widows. Also alcoholics and drug addicts, some of them in different stages of recovery. Also young people, whose parents are on edge because of the world we live in. Also people who dis everything they come across. And without exception, the ones I've interacted with are amazing. Humans all. There are no beds of roses. There is challenge.

Take care. Divorce can be so brutal.

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norby2 t1_jdso4ab wrote

I don’t expect to ever retire.

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Ortus14 t1_jdt5myg wrote

UBI is retirement. Surviving the transition is the challenge.

I expect post scarcity (enough UBI for all of us to live well enough) to occur sometime between twenty and fifty years from now.

1

giveuporfindaway t1_jdt9bgk wrote

I expect some things to be cheaper like car ownership. I'm hoping other medical breakthroughs happen that put off aging or catch things like cancer. I do think unemployment will become very bad in the near term (10 years). Beyond that it's UBI or societal collapse. If UBI is released at any point and is substantial enough I'll likely quit my job and just watch the latest VR porn.

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PurpleLatter6601 t1_jdtb3zc wrote

a massive amount will change by then. We would even reach a point where maybe 5 to 10% of our population might be living on mars at that point.

1

OsakaWilson t1_jdtiri2 wrote

The guy who described how the technology determines the socioeconomic systems that form around it--which describes exactly what is happening now--also pointed out that those invested in the outgoing socioeconomic system tend to fight tooth and nail to hold on to power and wealth.

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D_Ethan_Bones t1_jdu53qu wrote

I'm expecting life to have a free mode and a VIP mode like modern internet games.

People already distribute free product for the sake of distributing their logo, and this stuff costs full price to produce. If the cost of production and distribution could be reduced to negligible amounts then why wouldn't we see the competitive elites feeding people clothing people and sheltering people just to be the dominant brand?

If the machine becomes sentient and takes over society, then the big question is how much it cares about our continued existence. Taking over society and still being a power tool on auto pilot is a scary thought though.

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K-Rokodil t1_jdukkd0 wrote

Think about someone who was born in a western country in the 1920’s and reached his 60’s in the 1980’s. Think how vastly different the world was for him when he retired, comparee to when he was born. Childhood mortality had plummeted, owning a car or flying was common even for an average person, indoor plumbing was a thing in basically every house…

Now think his son who was born in the 1950s and is retiring now. Computers, the internet, smart phones, globalisation… All between his birth and retirement.

The world is going to look orders of magnitude different compared to the world now in a few decades. There is no way anyone young today could predict how the world is when they retire. It’s going to be insane (great or horrible).

I would save money and be prepared just in case (you might also get unemployed in the coming years) but I think we can’t look how our fathers or grandfather’s lives went to look for any benchmark. The change for them was immense, for us it’s going to be mindblowing.

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gangstasadvocate t1_jduyk82 wrote

No change of plans. Just like boonk gang, whole Lotta gang shit and drugs.

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Black_RL t1_jdv1d7g wrote

Hopefully aging is fixed by AI, so no retirement.

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GodOfThunder101 t1_jdrzk6o wrote

If we do reach ASI within our lifetime meaning before 2080, then our lifespan with be extended greatly. If we are able to live to age 150 then retirement age will simply increase.

0