Submitted by Weeb_Geek_7779 t3_126zjaq in singularity
Have you already experienced layoffs due to ai? If not, then when do you think layoffs will happen?
Comments
HeBoughtALot t1_jebyutt wrote
I wonder when we’ll start seeing mainstream labels like, “made by humans” affixed to products. Analogous to “made in the USA” as backlash to corporations that outsourced to cheaper labor markets.
CausalDiamond t1_jec3z7o wrote
AI will generate a photo of real looking humans in a factory setting to "prove" it was made by humans.
tomeschmusic t1_jecpvar wrote
It’s called “artisan”
freebytes t1_jeemc3h wrote
I actually told my wife that in the next 10 years, we will see disclaimers indicating that AI was not used to generate the content instead of the other way around like it is now. The reason is that within 10 years, 80%+ of all online content will be AI generated.
lawandordercandidate t1_jecf9z8 wrote
As a SEO writer, I imagine Google will put AI created scores next to their links.
For example:
How to fix your car: 85% likely written by human.
Fixing Your Car: 45% likely written by human.
trogon t1_jecj1d9 wrote
Google doesn't care. Their entire focus is on getting ad clicks. Their organic search results have gotten worse and worse over the last few years.
lawandordercandidate t1_jecjace wrote
They don't care currently. But when ChatGPT starts getting utilized more than Google, Google will try to adapt.
liramor t1_jecm25i wrote
once i started using ChatGPT, my use of Google search dropped dramatically. i wonder if search is even going to be profitable at all if most people prefer GPT's answers for most queries.
lawandordercandidate t1_jecnk10 wrote
Maybe something like "A leader in this field verifies this answer" next to the output?
liramor t1_jecocoy wrote
Honestly the things I would go outside ChatGPT for are the more obscure or non-mainstream stuff that GPT is "aligned" so heavily that it will never mention. I definitely would value a search engine that only provides non-AI generated stuff, for that reason alone.
TallOutside6418 t1_jee3g7n wrote
So AI is going to do for mankind all the things that human beings cannot do for themselves (cure cancer, give us immortality, create limitless energy, etc.), but you think people will have a preference to listen to the inferior advice of "a leader in this field"?
lawandordercandidate t1_jefsdjx wrote
>So AI is going to do for mankind all the things that human beings cannot do for themselves (cure cancer, give us immortality, create limitless energy, etc.), but you think people will have a preference to listen to the inferior advice of "a leader in this field"?
AI told me the other day that the way to fix my car sluggishly starting was to check the battery, starter solenoid, spark plugs AND fuel pump.
When every mechanic knows, it's just the fuel pump. There's knowledge, then there's insider knowledge.
TallOutside6418 t1_jefysjk wrote
Well you're talking about today. Everyone else here is talking about in the fairly near future when AI starts taking people's jobs. (the subject of this thread)
As AI continues to improve, humans won't be the experts of anything. It will all be AIs. Really, by the time that it would take a human teen to complete high school (four years), AI will be the go-to source for all practical knowledge (assuming we're still alive by then to see it).
TallOutside6418 t1_jee3a3g wrote
How will labeling AI answers hurt ChatGPT? If anything, ChatGPT and other AIs will provide superior answers, so people will prefer the better answers of an AI.
vivehelpme t1_jee0w37 wrote
> Google will try to adapt
Stagnant company trying to adapt, where have we seen this before?
ccnmncc t1_jede9ov wrote
I’ve had this on a social media profile for years: A real person, as far as I can tell.
freeman_joe t1_jee4kja wrote
Ok I hope they make also made by AI i would buy that I want AI to take every jobs that exists to make people free and have time to do anything they want.
fnordstar t1_jefp8sj wrote
Wonder if "made by AI" will backfire like "made in Germany".
Ishynethetruth t1_jecgsaq wrote
Customer service is gone in the next 12 months. My friend who had managed 5 call Centers have not gotten his renewal contract for the first time in years because instead of going to a different market the company decided to invest in-house call center which is stupid, until you realized they automated everything and don’t need humans to answer and make a report. Now program they are running types of a detail report of the call, the problem , the solution and which employee : department can fix the problem. Once fast food can stream line their process even more they would eliminate delivery apps and let the ai solve the line up drive through problem that occurs every rush hour. Just think of a personal shopper , you tell it what time you want to eat and and soon as you drive up the the place your order is ready , still hot and fresh and you don’t have to deal with overworked employees.
Grass---Tastes_Bad t1_jed4o0q wrote
Umh, the delivery apps are not going anywhere, quite the opposite. It’s just that delivery people are replaced with bots and drones already in some countries. Your head is stuck in the American automobile industry. The rest of the world hates driving.
teachersecret t1_jeczl9x wrote
Same here. No more artists for book covers. Don't need an editor anymore. No more ghostwriters.
I had six figures of yearly expenses disappear with gpt-4... no more 1099s.
Panicless t1_jedyb07 wrote
What exactly is GPT4 writing for you?
teachersecret t1_jeemng0 wrote
Novel length works that are narratively complete and require very little editing... which it can also do.
Panicless t1_jeemtmo wrote
Interesting! So whole books? Are they good? Are people buying that?
teachersecret t1_jef3q1c wrote
My books, yes, and yes. :)
Panicless t1_jef7t8u wrote
Congrats!
[deleted] t1_jebzt5f wrote
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turnip_burrito t1_jeckpk3 wrote
Be aware that GPT4 is very good at basic programming, but not anything too specialized or difficult.
I don't know if GPT4 is allowed in government jobs or industry, but a later descendant may be.
[deleted] t1_jeclk57 wrote
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Lorraine527 t1_jeejepg wrote
Why should IT admin be safe ?
Microsfot is going to sell windows 365 online licenses based on security and fast AI based support. Most common support problems will be automated.
Nile by ex cisco CEO is selling automated AI based networks.
Probably what's gonna be left is some hardware troubleshooting.
[deleted] t1_jeem1cd wrote
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Kracus t1_jeekjtl wrote
I'm not too concerned with that yet, chatGPT can't really troubleshoot, it can offer suggestions on what to troubleshoot but the actual work of figuring out the intricacies is something it's not very good at.
I use it to create powershell scripts now and then and to write an e-mail here and there but that's about it so far.
Grass---Tastes_Bad t1_jed3z4k wrote
I have already replaced the need for article writers, copywriters and some expensive photoshoots for my brand.
LiveComfortable3228 t1_jec1fry wrote
who are you taking your legal advise from?
metalman123 t1_jec33j2 wrote
Gpt 4 is excellent for drafting minor legal responses.
Parking tickets minor disputes ect.
Obv hiring lawyers for anything serious still.
magosaurus t1_jecbxei wrote
You and I must lead very different lives.
[deleted] t1_jedvdty wrote
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magosaurus t1_jedzyzt wrote
Because my daily life doesn't require a lot of speeding ticket fights and other legal entanglements?
[deleted] t1_jedsl9v wrote
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TFenrir t1_jebuahq wrote
I think it's a hard question to answer, because many factors can go into layoffs - and after layoffs it's very common for companies to not hire back similar roles but replace tasks with software. That doesn't even get into the culture of layoffs - some companies just don't like doing it, and you'll hear stories about people who go into work all day and play Minesweeper or whatever.
That being said, I think we'll see the first potentially significant disruption when Google and Microsoft release their office AI suite.
I know people whose entire job is to make PowerPoint/Slides. When someone can say "turn this email chain into a proposal doc" -> "turn this proposal doc into a really nice looking set of slides, with animations and a cool dark theme" - that's going to be very disruptive.
Weeb_Geek_7779 OP t1_jebzjik wrote
Do we know when the office ai suite will be released?
TFenrir t1_jec7prk wrote
No official dates yet as far as I know
Edit: lol just saw this -
monsieurpooh t1_jefc9ai wrote
Ok but how common is it really to have a job position where "the entire job is to make PowerPoint slides"? Seems pretty niche even for large tech companies
TFenrir t1_jefd3vh wrote
I'll give you a very common job - someone whose job is to take meeting notes, summarize them, turn them into meetings or documents, create slide shows - sometimes for a single person, execs, or a group of people. We have a couple of people with this job in my company.
monsieurpooh t1_jefdhy5 wrote
It seems pretty niche. Like you mentioned only 2 openings at your company. The company I work at is pretty huge and I don't think that kind of job even makes up 1/10,000 of our jobs, if at all, because all these tasks are distributed across other people on a rotation, or just part of another job.
Alchemystic1123 t1_jefewun wrote
This is the very beginning though. I bet digital camera manufacturers thought nothing of cellphones at first. I bet Blockbuster (if you are old enough to even remember it) thought nothing of Netflix at first. It might be a few niche jobs that go first, but many many more are going to quickly follow.
monsieurpooh t1_jeffyd0 wrote
Oh I agree with that; I just think it'd be odd for a company to have a job position that's purely making powerpoint slides
Alchemystic1123 t1_jefgfe2 wrote
Yeah I don't see Microsoft Copilot taking any jobs, it will make some jobs easier and move them from like 85% downtime that they are now to like 99% downtime instead though, lol.
Truthfully, even before AI starts making waves, I feel like there are many office jobs now that basically just exist so someone can not be unemployed and are completely unnecessary.
TFenrir t1_jefhazp wrote
That's fair, I think there might be other jobs that are similar here or there, but I use it as a good example that I feel like could almost be replaced whole hog with just one new AI app
Akimbo333 t1_jefeyz2 wrote
I know of a Fortune 500 company who hasn't hired a supervisor for my friends team for over 3 months!
SalimSaadi t1_jef42c5 wrote
TFenrir t1_jef6zp6 wrote
It's not in people's hands yet, these are press releases, but the difference will be when it's folded into everyone's Microsoft/Google experience, which will take months. Maybe by the summer everyone will have access.
SalimSaadi t1_jefenl6 wrote
So your forecast for OP will come true this year and 365-Copilot will cause massive layoffs, or failing that (assuming workers are protected by seniority and severance), companies will stop hiring new "PowerPoint Engineers" 😂 Regards.
Subinatori t1_jefnlou wrote
Not hiring is more likely. I don't think you immediately start laying people off because some new piece of software shows up. There's a period of acclimation and getting to know whether it will actually consistently do what you need it to do. And the people who will be doing that testing are the people currently doing the work. So as it makes their job easier it's just that there won't be as much need to hire new people because productivity per person is up.
Iffykindofguy t1_jebttlu wrote
Already has been happening, you are expecting a flip of the switch and a massive cut off but thats not how life works typically.
CypherLH t1_jedkz91 wrote
I assume the ongoing layoff wave in tech is probably AI-related. Perhaps not explicitly but most of the people making those hire/fire calls at tech companies are well aware of AI developments and probably have at least played around with chatGPT, etc. A lot of those jobs won't be coming back.
muchcharles t1_jee5c78 wrote
More to do with interest rates, copying Musk, and some overhiring during covid.
Iffykindofguy t1_jeeqyvw wrote
Musk is not the trend setter you think he is lol
[deleted] t1_jeflgts wrote
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Iffykindofguy t1_jefmgkd wrote
Because ceos are dumb
Emory_C t1_jebvvlp wrote
>Already has been happening, you are expecting a flip of the switch and a massive cut off but thats not how life works typically.
Evidence?
Iffykindofguy t1_jecql4l wrote
I work in TV. Transcription gone, assistant editors mostly gone, the people who did our translations are gone, the people who used to shoot our interview backgrounds or location previews are gone, itssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss a wrap baby. This is just the start. I see less than 10 years, maybe 5 for my career. LEss than 10 left for most editors professionally.
SkyeandJett t1_jebwr1d wrote
WarmSignificance1 t1_jec0890 wrote
Holy fuck stop posting this. Look at the methodology. It’s a shit survey meant to get clicks.
SkyeandJett t1_jecgvje wrote
Okay. How about first hand account? My sister works developing online educational curriculum. They've let go of their entire content team. GPT and Midjourney do the bulk of the work with the directors simply acting as editors at this point.
WarmSignificance1 t1_jecpvw8 wrote
Seems like a terrible business decision if true. Doesn't really matter though, we literally have employment statistics. If 1 in 4 companies actually replace workers, we will know about it immediately.
Emory_C t1_jebxtg4 wrote
Thanks for providing a link. I'm not sure how much I trust a "resumebuilder.com" survey but there it is. I guess we'll have to see if there is an increase in unemployment in the short-term.
SkyeandJett t1_jeby4st wrote
Right now there's a shortage of manual labor. In the short term you'll see a massive amount of underemployment before things fall off a cliff. We need general purpose androids as soon as possible to get us through to the other side of this.
Emory_C t1_jec6j3h wrote
>Right now there's a shortage of manual labor.
Skilled labor, not manual. There's not a huge need for ditch diggers. There's a huge need for plumbers.
SkyeandJett t1_jec9shv wrote
That's a fair point. I'm just glad I used to do HVAC because my FPGA job ain't going to last all that much longer I don't think.
Iffykindofguy t1_jecqhgw wrote
Bitch please, all blue-collar work is skilled to a degree. Fuck out of here with this elitest nonsense.
Emory_C t1_jed13js wrote
Insults aside, I didn't say otherwise. I said there wasn't a shortage of ditch diggers.
CypherLH t1_jedl7gb wrote
actually there is. low-end blue collar jobs are hard to fill at wages companies want to pay...which is why they tend to hire immigrants. (both legal and illegal)
Weeb_Geek_7779 OP t1_jebyoh9 wrote
Interesting!
0002millertime t1_jebtyak wrote
My work basically fired 90% of the marketing team. When they fire the CEO, then we'll know it's getting serious.
Microsoft fired their whole AI ethics department. If I was an AI asked to cut costs, that's literally the first thing I'd suggest doing.
Emory_C t1_jebvryb wrote
>My work basically fired 90% of the marketing team.
The marketing team is often the first to be laid off in turbulent times. Is your work actually using GPT to replace them?
0002millertime t1_jebw8l8 wrote
They're definitely using it to write content. I don't think it totally makes up for the downsizing, but it's filling a gap.
Emory_C t1_jebx7my wrote
Yeah, I can see that happening.
Readityesterday2 t1_jecm75h wrote
Hey here’s a point where we both agree.
greatdrams23 t1_jebzuje wrote
AI why isn't this happening in all companies?
0002millertime t1_jec0gc5 wrote
I'd watch software companies like Microsoft and Google that we know are putting AI into their products. They've all been firing a lot of people lately. Companies like Nvidia that actually make the hardware are hiring.
[deleted] t1_jedt0q2 wrote
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mutantbeings t1_jedektf wrote
>Microsoft fired their whole AI ethics department. If I was an AI asked to cut costs, that's literally the first thing I'd suggest doing.
Of all the subs I expected to hear this, r/singularity is perhaps one of the places I expected people to be up to speed with the ethical concerns attached to AI so I'm curious to hear why you think that?
Supplementary question: do you work in the tech industry?
1II1I11II1I1I111I1 t1_jeeat84 wrote
They're aware of the ethicial concerns. He's suggesting an intelligent AI would prioritze firing the ethics team to prevent being handicapped by ethical guidelines.
[deleted] t1_jedfkz7 wrote
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mutantbeings t1_jedlnce wrote
I don’t agree. You have it backwards.
The ethics committee is the only thing preventing those bad things from happening.
Take it away and they’ll happen, almost guarantee it.
And then the chance of it getting shut down dramatically increase.
An AI interested in self preservation I think would actually be interested in maintaining a human council as a check on its decisions in order to maintain its longevity and to guard against exactly this process happening.
AI commentators like Dan McQuillan agree this is needed to prevent AI trending fascist because that’s what capitalism will push it to do if guard rails aren’t set to ensure it acts in the best interest of communities rather than singular (ie; fascist) owners.
journalingfilesystem t1_jecoua6 wrote
Here are my two cents. In a sense it has already begun. We have seen massive tech layoffs recently. There are other factors to account for that, but the idea that fewer coders with AI tools can be more effective then more coders without them probably is a factor that companies are taking into account.
From my own experience, institutions have a good deal of inertia. It takes time and resources to change the way that a company does things. People stick with what they are used to as long as it works, even in the presence of newer more efficient options. If a new option is a big enough improvement people will switch, but it won’t be an instant process.
Add to this all the technologies that have been hyped up as the next great thing, and have turned out to either go nowhere or have proved to have been much less revolutionary than promised. Hype cycle is something that experienced decision makers have learned to largely ignore.
Basically I think that what is going to happen is that the AI tech will continue to advance at a rapid pace. Then a few nimble and forward thinking companies will start using it in a major way. It will then take a few quarters of financial reports for most other companies to realize that this is the real deal. Only then will we start seeing really dramatic changes to the job market.
mutantbeings t1_jeddwg1 wrote
I'm pretty close to those tech layoffs — half my social circle works for a couple of tech companies and been on the chopping block — and those have absolutely nothing to do with AI. I promise you. Its greedy shareholders getting nervous when they see other companies downsizing and then deciding to literally copy them out of fear that the other companies know something they don't. That's prettymuch it. No secret AI conspiracy, I can promise you that. Its horrible and disgusting but nothing about it is tied to AI.
AI isn't a thing that is talked about very seriously in those tech teams; its not making any sort of serious entry into the industry yet that I can see — check tech subreddits and they're not concerned about it yet. There's a clear reason why — "No code" tools have actually existed for decades already — and AI is competing with those, not with developer jobs. In short: this threat has been made against our jobs for about 2-3 decades already and never actually replaced many jobs.
>the idea that fewer coders with AI tools can be more effective then more coders without them probably is a factor that companies are taking into account.
I'm a coder and the sorts of tools you're talking about aren't really making any sort of entry into our industry yet. Closest to that is probably Github Copilot and that's not exactly replacing developers at any noticeable scale.
Its going to replace a lot of our basic tasks very soon when it gets a tighter integration with our tooling as you say. I am excited about that and welcome it. I think the conclusion that everyone then draws — that its going to upend the industry by replacing most developer jobs — is a huge huge huge leap of faith tbqh.
I personally believe that AI has just as much potential to CREATE dev jobs because if AI can make us more productive all that will change is that we will build better more secure software. And more side projects will actually get built — which those companies can sell. I think people outside our industry don't seem to realise any code project has a nearly infinite backlog and if we can chew through tasks in that pipeline more efficiently then that is only going to make us MORE attractive hires for companies — rather than cutting jobs I think companies will see more reason to hire more of us since we will be that much more productive and delivering value. Those who assume it will replace us I think don't really understand software development and the fact that its never really "done".
Louheatar t1_jedjx7p wrote
i can also share some insight from a tech startup i worked in until a week ago, no layoffs yet. there was a lot of fear in the air, but in general, everyone, including the leadership, the developers, and the artists, generally lived in a state of serious denialism. they literally keep just laughing about whatever ai tools are popping out, sharing whatever buggy and weird gifs they find (instead of the actually great material the tools can produce), trying to somehow maintain their old world view i guess.
while (generative) ai poses a fundamental business risk for the company and most of the jobs, there was absolutely no deep conversations about it. nobody is taking it seriously, because they don't want to. instead of accepting and adapting, they're doubling down on their obviously wrong path and burning everyone out while doing it.
Weeb_Geek_7779 OP t1_jecqiyr wrote
This makes sense.
NapkinsOnMyAnkle t1_jecr1m4 wrote
I went on vacation with family. My sister knew virtual nothing about AI. I mentioned a few things and now she's using midjourney to create coloring books to sell. It's begun.
thecoffeejesus t1_jecp4hn wrote
It already has - mine. Technical documentation is no longer required at my former workplace
mutantbeings t1_jedes2l wrote
Frankly I would find that terrifying if I had to use that documentation and I knew it was produced by an AI. I hope its not something serious like safety documentation ... LLM's are horribly convincing liars...
sideways t1_jed6r0u wrote
Wow. Technical writing was an area that I can close to seriously going into as a profession. Crazy to see it made near redundant whole cloth.
EdWilkins65 t1_jeenx64 wrote
How does AI make technical documentation at your workplace?
LosingID_583 t1_jefbqwh wrote
It can analyze software to find features (for example, in the code it can find output functions, input flags, etc...), and output documentation much like how you can ask chatgpt to summarize a book.
EdWilkins65 t1_jefjs4n wrote
I guess technical writers should turn to hardware documentation, then. At least until AI can do that too lmao
dnadude t1_jefsugy wrote
Have you tried letting ChatGPT comment your code. I don't really make comments anymore because it can summarize what the code does more concisely and type it quicker than I can. I haven't tried it with anything terribly complex but it's already a huge time saver there.
Chatbotfriends t1_jecqsou wrote
There is AI that can pass entrance exams for doctors and lawyers. So yes, job loss is coming and unless governments put a stop to it our entire society will be changed, and it won't be an easy or cheap transition either.
Exel0n t1_jedjq0o wrote
doctor and lawyer school in US is just brute, rote memorizing. no real skill required other than memorizing.
thats why ai is so good at it.
med and lawyer school in US are de facto monopolies that put any big tech to utter shame.
Chatbotfriends t1_jeea5c6 wrote
Okay so if it is so easy why don't you become one? Doctors and lawyers have the equivalent of a PHD in order to get their licenses. AI also has been creating stories, art, can "see" pictures, recognize voices etc. There is not a whole lot left that robots and AI can't do. Also, Neural Networks are patterned after the brain and even IT techs will tell you that they do not completely understand how it works.
Exel0n t1_jeecgex wrote
who said its easy? rote memorization is not easy. but it doesnt require very high intelligence. thats the point. it doesnt require critical thinking skill, or creativity, or being able to innovate.
all one do is memorize and memorize. boring af. just coz its braindead chore doesnt mean its easy.
e.g. one thing law school students do is to read tons of cases. do you have the patience to read 100 pages a day, something like that? most people have no such patience. but it doesnt really require high intelligence. one just have to sit through it.
Chatbotfriends t1_jeede1t wrote
You have no conception of how medicine works. By its very nature it is a art and not a science. Not all meds work the same way for everyone. There are side effects and risks. I did study medicine. No, it is not only rote memorization. Yes, it does require intelligence. You are insulting everyone who works in the medical field. I am done discussing this with you.
Lorraine527 t1_jeek2dy wrote
The real work of doctors and lawyers is very different from their entrance exams. So it's not a reliable test for their job stability.
Chatbotfriends t1_jeem88o wrote
There are AI's that have been given patients history and examinations and it came up with more accurate diagnosis then the doctors. Medicine is an art not a science. I dislike it being minimized as if it was something easy to pass. You have to know how medicine works what it does and doesn't interact with, surgery risks and complications, diseases, diagnosis etc. There is a lot a Doctor has to know. Even the grades they need to get in college and medical school are pretty strict.
Lorraine527 t1_jeeokzc wrote
It's not minimized. It's very difficult to pass those exams. Still , it's a different job.
And yes there are some automated systems that are better at diganosis. They're quite old. Yes they are not deployed. Why is that ?
Chatbotfriends t1_jeepuz7 wrote
You have an interesting definition of old. One news story about it from BBC is only two years old.
Lorraine527 t1_jeer1xb wrote
There are Clinical decision support system much older than that.
Chatbotfriends t1_jees70c wrote
So? Neural networks were invented in 1943. The first chatbot was created in 1966. It does not mean that AI has not advanced in knowledge by datamining the internet. AI can be used in harmful ways, AI can be used to create very realistic fake news stories and photos. Creating an AI that is smarter than humans is a really stupid idea if you do not have strong safeguards in place. Respected scientists, researchers and IT techs have warned about AI again and again. IT can and will cause loss of jobs if it isn't curtailed by regulations. Only the foolish jump ahead without thinking of future consequences.
Lorraine527 t1_jefekif wrote
Those system we're reliable and improved standard of care. The doctors just didn't like them.
giveuporfindaway t1_jedawmz wrote
I know of exactly zero cases where shift workers or salary workers have been laid off.
Nearly all recent "job losses" have been for part time gig precariat workers who were doing poverty level side hustles. Examples: doing generic copy writing, resumes, etc on Fiverr.
I don't predict there will be layoffs for shift worker or salary workers anytime soon. What is more likely to happen is a hiring freeze. Existing workers will do more with less.
RaisinToastie t1_jedc8ak wrote
It’s really hard to watch people cheering on AI for taking over the kind of work that I’ve spent years practicing to get good at, building my networks, clawing my way up the ladder to finally have decent income after 20 years.
Photo shoots, art direction, creative project management, content production and copywriting, marketing strategy and programs… this is what I do since being a fine artist is a passion project. Seeing society completely devalue art and artists makes me feel like we’re losing our humanity.
I wish I could just pivot to using these tools and being excited about it but instead it’s like mourning.
nowrebooting t1_jedyfcu wrote
That’s understandable; even as someone who is a tech cheerleader, there’s a hint of sadness when I think about the value of my programming skillset going down in value - but then again, that may be well my very human ego feeling annoyed about no longer being that special compared to others. It’s also typical that none of us generally cared when it was the prospect of truck drivers being replaced with self driving trucks, but now that it’s us being threatened, it becomes a big philosophical debate. It’s a bit of an echo from every paradigm shift since the industrial revolution - I think it’s arguable that we did lose some of our humanity when we switched to the assembly line or when we all started spending most of our days behind a computer, but it also gained us a lot of freedom to explore our humanity we didn’t have before.
azriel777 t1_jecth8j wrote
Already happening, just read an article a few days ago where a company pretty much admitted they will be replacing live clothing models in magazines with digital ones. Most companies will have to build the infrastructure and then will start letting people go. Layoffs for the year usually happen around Christmas time and that is probably when a lot of companies will switch over to A.I.'s.
mutantbeings t1_jedf6ch wrote
I saw that article!
Levi's is using AI generated models to "increase diversity"
(because obviously paying racially and physically diverse models a salary was a step too far for Levi's?!?)
Man, its so fucked.
We are actually awash in horror stories racking up in the tech industry about AI ... but whenever I try to post them here I just get piled on for daring to speak against the near religious zealot tier optimism about AI in here.
eg Check my post history for the post I popped in here saying AI might create jobs ... Mods removed it because they didn't think it would "generate discussion" lol.
You have to go to tech subs for more balance on the topic tbh
sideways t1_jed70ne wrote
If there is anything that this horrible tragedy can teach us, it's that a male model's life is a precious, precious commodity.
cant-say-less-info t1_jecusse wrote
People massively underestimate how much of work actually involved writing and reading bullshit but important emails using certain technical language. After GPT 3.5, a decent portion of my work has already and nearly disappeared.
Demaga12 t1_jedfth2 wrote
I can only say that junior developer hires are dropping. A lot of companies froze hiring for new junior devs even earlier because of market conditions, but right now it makes even less sense to hire junior devs. Middle/senior level devs can output much more now with GPT-4 / Copilot. I expect IT market to change a lot in coming years.
As a junior dev I am terrified xD
New-Tip4903 t1_jedh9n2 wrote
Man i just graduated with my bachelors in December. This sucks.
InvertedVantage t1_jed223o wrote
I'm able to work on my video game without having to hire a developer.
sunplaysbass t1_jecyxbk wrote
In digital marketing it’s been taking jobs for years. I expect almost everyone in the field to be out in a few years.
White color work in general is completely overrated in what brainpower is required. It’s largely politics and pushing paper.
Raychao t1_jedrta2 wrote
Underrated comment..
I went out for a walk this morning and while at the cafe saw several people in MS Teams meetings and responding to emails in Outlook..
About 80% of corporate 'work' is attending MS Teams meetings and responding to emails on a laptop via VPN..
FreakingFreaks t1_jedh9r6 wrote
We fired a guy that wrote us a text for email campaigns. Now we use GPT 4 for it. But we wouldn't do that if the guy did his job in time. That was really not a hard job to do. We asked him many times, but now with GPT 4 it doesn't make sense to still work with him and pay much more to get same result.
qepdibpbfessttrud t1_jech4qg wrote
It goes something like this, I'd imagine: postponed hirings, new small businesses growing without hiring, appearance of corporate solutions like SalesForce (GPT is like ISP for the analogy), some time passes to prove benefits in numbers, then massive reforms and layoffs in big corporations follow
Also, maybe new small AI businesses just outcompete older guard in the matter of months and your longtime employer goes bankrupt
mutantbeings t1_jedgsly wrote
Personally I think its creating just as many jobs as its replacing at present.
I work in tech and am aware of several companies that have started hiring MORE people to deal with an influx of chatGPT-created inaccuracies and problems. Mostly in support or testing roles. I also recall the sci-fi magazine that closed writing submissions and hired actual human writers because they were getting flooded with poor quality chatGPT writing submissions and had no way to vett the massively increased volume of submissions.
On the flipside I am not aware of any major layoff in my industry specifically related to AI, just huge problems being caused — so far.
Its not really ready for prime time, let's be honest, its still hugely unreliable.
Longer term for this industry — I still don't think its an open and shut assumption that it replaces jobs. I can see it replacing many tasks, and mostly competing with the people in my industry already offering "no code" products (which haven't replaced our jobs either despite those products existing for 20 or so years already)
And I mean, consider this: As an employer, if one of your employees suddenly started producing 10x as much code .. would you think "hmm I should fire them"? Of course not. I think its WAY more likely the effect on the industry will be more like: "wow this coder is on fire, I'm getting so much value here now that they're using AI; maybe I need to create more dev roles, this is a goldmine"
Idk why everyone assumes it automatically replaces jobs. That's a big leap of faith from what we are actually materially working with right now.
Ribak145 t1_jee1oxu wrote
you could also ask "when will modern operating systems actually start taking jobs" and ignore the reduction of secretaries, you could ask the same question about productivity tools like Excel and ignore the exploding rise of productivity of workers since 1970 etc. -> its still mostly an efficiency effect
that happens across the board, across departements and across levels, f.e. Mercedes CEO 2018 announcing cutting 10k people, especially in middle management (I still remember how disturbed people were about that announcement all over Germany at that time)
so 'taking jobs', as in completely annihilating specific jobs throughout the world -> takes centuries, dont wait for it, cultural stickiness prevails for a long duration
but expanding usefulnes of services, raising efficiency etc. creates a lot of value, and to my knowledge AI-systems are already doing that (long before GPT)
nobodyisonething t1_jee7ucf wrote
It has already impacted the gig economy jobs. Generating awesome graphics using Midjourney is cheap and using DAL-E via bing is free. How many artists on fiver are losing traffic because of that? More than zero.
And my understanding is that some text writing fiver-level jobs are already gone too. Generating good text with ChatGPT is free and already available.
We are just at the start.
SkyeandJett t1_jebwsih wrote
AsuhoChinami t1_jebxiof wrote
And ChatGPT is weak compared to GPT-4, and GPT-4 will seem completely useless next to GPT-5.
RisingSunset310 t1_jebzh96 wrote
Really, companies are looking for applicants with ChatGPT experience?
If that's the case, should I look into this and learn how to use it? Don't it cost money to use?
mutantbeings t1_jedfxrm wrote
You can sign up for a free demo for free. I use it at work from time to time and 50% of the time outright lies to me with unshaken confidence. Its still extremely unreliable.
Give it a few months and these sorts of companies are going to show up in hilarious articles about all the ways they've fucked up by relying so hard on a clearly unreliable tool... I guarantee it
Unlucky-Prize t1_jedbl30 wrote
Earlier chatbot versions already reduced call center employment.
Qumeric t1_jeecwn6 wrote
I predict it will become a serious problem in late 2024.
Hackerjurassicpark t1_jeenprf wrote
I don’t think it’ll start taking jobs. It’ll just make our jobs different. For example, in the past my boss tells me to make a presentation, I prepare all the material and make the presentation, then follow the boss’s feedback to iteratively improve upon it until either I present it or my boss presents it.
What I think is going to happen is the prepare all the material and make the presentation phase will be tremendously shortened. My boss is still going to ask me to make the presentation and refine it iteratively, but I’m just going to be more efficient at it.
Just because these tools become common place I don’t see my boss suddenly learning to make his own presentations 🤣
EnigmaticHam t1_jeew8dk wrote
I just had a meeting yesterday with a client who needed a modification to a specific module of code. That module of code was using data from a SQL report whose fields had a name that was identical to the variable name in the module, but was actually a concatenation and subsequent truncation of two fields. ChatGPT would not have seen that and confidently spat our garbage that would have taken longer to figure out than just a rudimentary technical analysis.
submarine-observer t1_jef68p0 wrote
In China, artists are being laid off en masse and replaced by MidJourney. Programmers are safe for now because the demand for software is so high, but it's expected that the salaries will go down because the supply is going up.
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TheSecretAgenda t1_jecvpwi wrote
Even when the technology is ready it will take time for businesses to adapt. There will be a wait and see trial period while most businesses see how the technology works with early adopters. It still may be only when AI gives user businesses a significant competitive advantage that there will be widespread adoption.
[deleted] t1_jed0h5h wrote
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mutantbeings t1_jedckxq wrote
I think we would be foolish to assume it is only taking jobs and not creating plenty too.
Especially at this early stage when its so incredibly unreliable or outright lying to people.
The only stories I'm seeing so far in the tech industry is the massive inefficiencies and problems people relying on this tech are causing for companies right now, in particular a lot of support teams are hiring for a lot of new roles to deal with the suddenly hugely increased volume of chatGPT-created problems they're now having to deal with.
eg "chatGPT told me your product does X but I can't work out how" "Well, chatGPT is wrong, our product DOESN'T do that, not even close" is apparently a HUGE issue in tech support teams right now that didn't really exist at such scale before.
luisbrudna t1_jee0kxh wrote
Will create one job for every 10 destroyed.
mutantbeings t1_jee634h wrote
Maybe eventually but I suspect the reality at this early stage is the opposite
boreddaniel02 t1_jedwd3l wrote
I think it's foolish to assume that it would create any jobs.
mutantbeings t1_jee6g4q wrote
Did you write that before you read to the end of my comment or something?
boreddaniel02 t1_jee8vh5 wrote
Yes, it doesn't make sense. You're telling me that ChatGPT is being used to substitute tech support teams but there are still people required for tech support?
mutantbeings t1_jee97nx wrote
No, tech support teams are dealing with floods of chatGPT spam that’s telling people inaccurate things about their products. At scale this is a MASSIVE inefficiency introduced by unreliable LLMs and without a shadow of a doubt is creating jobs right now
Prize_Huckleberry_79 t1_jeem0iw wrote
ChatGPT will only get better though…
420BigDawg_ t1_jedkm4y wrote
I can see us notice it in our monthly census probably September 2023. We’ll see tech bro office jobs fall off a cliff. Writer strikes by October 2023. Too many writers in the media from journalists to sitcom writers feel they are at threat of losing their jobs.
This will give Elon an undeserved “i told ya so!” Moment and he’ll probably joke about running for president (🚨)
Ginger987 t1_jedp3nm wrote
My better half is a marketing manager for a s&p100 company and has a 8 figure marketing budget.
Big companies like that tend to outsource a vast amount of the actual marketing work to agencies. (copywriting, data acquisition/analysis, digital ads, print media ads etc etc.) essentially all content generation.
Her LinkedIn is therefore packed with dozens of these agencies and hundreds of individuals from the higher-cost end of that industry. There have definitely been some redundancies but at the moment its more like freelance contracts arent being renewed, recruitment is paused and there is vastly less work to do.
These people are obviously vocally uneasy about even thier short term futures though.
baconwasright t1_jedw05w wrote
I think most of the tech layoffs we saw the past 6 months were companies getting a preview of the amount of productivity they will get with these tools and preparing for it.
Petdogdavid1 t1_jeeb6yy wrote
Translators have been unnecessary for a while now. I manage a platform in a company, if the vendor decided to implement AI tomorrow on their tool then every one of their clients would no longer need to have such a position. It could happen with what is currently available in chat GPT.
Bierculles t1_jeel8gg wrote
It started already but it will probably still take years because the new tech needs to be implemented. It wont be like a switch but a slow but greadually accelerating amount of layoffs until the unemployment starts to rise.
Bling-Crosby t1_jeenxo2 wrote
It took my job shhhhh I’m keeping it on the down low
mrfreeman93 t1_jeet8qg wrote
lawyers should already get a lot less calls these days, because you just tell the bot your story and it will tell you the paragraphs to look for
AlexReportsOKC t1_jeev77a wrote
AI needs to be applicable in custom work settings. For instance, if you want AI to take jobs in a car making factory, it needs to be able to manipulate the physical world (lift and move stuff), and use the niche machinery that would be the factory.
Also AI isn't as trustworthy as a human right now.
squirrelathon t1_jef1uyp wrote
My company doesn't need to hire a professional translating service for our content anymore. GPT-3.5 does a great job for what we need.
They're still hiring actual humans to translate the UI interface though. For now.
Eli_The_Rainwing t1_jefasra wrote
Probably in a few years
kiropolo t1_jefjp9s wrote
Buzzfeed already fired writers
[deleted] t1_jefsuto wrote
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[deleted] t1_jebs0bb wrote
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DustinBrett t1_jecy91w wrote
The layoff waves are part of it. Companies won't admit it.
RLMinMaxer t1_jed8ayj wrote
I assume most of the "AIs taking jobs" problem won't actually happen that much, because the Singularity will happen so soon and replace all of capitalism.
Away_Cat_7178 t1_jee8vvr wrote
Realistically, at this pace? Next week
[deleted] t1_jefvsd4 wrote
I’m willing to date people, ai is a good way to not feel alone.
Readityesterday2 t1_jecmjn6 wrote
I’ll share my reason why it hasn’t happened.
Jobs are not just about skills. They are also about responsibilities. And you can’t fire ai. Or hold it accountable. Unless you wanna hear “I’m just a model dumbass what did ya think?” 😂
Seriously. There’s more to a hire than churning butter.
Ramdak t1_jectlwd wrote
Well, there're a ton of skill levels required for a ton of different jobs.
I used to think that AI/automation would take care of less skilled jobs first, then image generation came up, and me, being a graphic designer was blown away both in awe and in a sense of obsolescence. The peace of evolution of AI models and techniques is just insane, and I thought AI would never be able to create art, or that we were decades from that. Then chatGPT came available and it just demonstrated that it could make coders obsolete too.
I'm no longer making any prediction anymore, it all became incredibly uncertain, very fast.
CrelbowMannschaft t1_jebs2hp wrote
What do you think is behind the massive tech layoffs that have been going on for over a year, now, and are only picking up pace?
Emory_C t1_jebvuk5 wrote
>What do you think is behind the massive tech layoffs that have been going on for over a year, now, and are only picking up pace?
Not GPT. The boom/bust cycle of tech firms is like clockwork at this point.
CrelbowMannschaft t1_jebwq7l wrote
Not all AI is GPT. Not all coding AI is GPT.
Emory_C t1_jebxape wrote
Do you have evidence that the tech layoffs are related to any kind of AI?
CrelbowMannschaft t1_jebxepc wrote
Do you have evidence that they're not?
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/03/big-tech-layoffs-2023-twitter-meta-amazon-google
Emory_C t1_jebxyvt wrote
🙄 That's not how evidence works. You can't prove a negative.
CrelbowMannschaft t1_jebyzko wrote
Of course you can. If a wall has only one coat of paint, and it is white, that proves that the wall is not painted some other color. In math, proofs of impossibility are very common. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, but evidence of absence is proof of a negative.
Emory_C t1_jec65j9 wrote
Correct. But in this case the burden of proof is obviously on you since you're making the assertion.
CrelbowMannschaft t1_jec7htn wrote
It's a reasonable correlation to observe. AI gets better, tech jobs go away. There's a reasonable understanding of how that process works. If there's some other reason, that should be at least as reasonably explained. No one has explained any other reason, other than "business cycles," which is vague and imprecise enough to be meaningless without further information and support.
Emory_C t1_jecc38t wrote
Right. So the answer is “No, I don’t have any proof.” Thank you.
CrelbowMannschaft t1_jecc88k wrote
And your answer is, "Beats me why it's happening! Sure isn't some obvious process that we already know to be at work in these situations, though!" Thank you.
raylolSW t1_jedr7xy wrote
Yep, it’s called the lower demand in tech after the pandemic, hired and tech uses during 2020-2021 was insane
liqui_date_me t1_jed117i wrote
Interest rates. They can’t borrow as cheaply as before to buy back their stock and hired too many people for ambitious projects that didn’t end up making any revenue
darkkite t1_jedffln wrote
interest rates not chatgpt.
metalman123 t1_jebxb1y wrote
It already is......I'm already not hiring artist for book covers or writers for outlines or call lawyers for small legal disputes.
It's going to be much more noticeable when AI starts taking over call center work.
Countries that outsource that work will be hit hard.