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Professional_Copy587 t1_jedmw2n wrote

No, it isn't.

Stop drinking the Koolaid that is the echo chamber of this sub. Go watch Sam Altman talking about it on Lex Fridman.

Generative AI is a transformative tool thats going to change a lot of things, but just because it spits out content in a manner that appears like an AGI, it isnt. Yes you will find a paper, or one expert who thinks it is. It doesnt mean it is. The majority of experts say it isnt. Altman himself states it isnt

Is it progress towards AGI? Maybe, we don't know. The first AGI may build on work that does not AT ALL involve this technology pathway.

18 months from now when the generative AI low hanging fruit has been caught and the rate of improvement drops, with some cool systems helping people in the workplace, and search engines have been replaced with Chat assistants, the people on this sub will be whining writing posts about whether we are entering an AI winter. All because they created an expectation in this echo chamber that didn't match reality.

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futebollounge t1_jedndb3 wrote

Not that I’m in the AGI in 2025 camp or anything, but don’t be naive to Sam’s incentives here.

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Professional_Copy587 t1_jednlsc wrote

I'm not. I actually do think (completely guessing) that humans create an AGI before 2032, but the hysteria and hype (and in the process the complete failure to understand how these systems work to produce the content they do) on this subreddit is reaching levels of complete delusion due to the echo chamber

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seas2699 t1_jednspr wrote

no offense but sam altman is a better salesman than anything. you’re gonna take the word of the guy who said they need to increase regulations on companies other than his? my ass

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Professional_Copy587 t1_jedo32c wrote

Ok, disregard his view. Go look at the majority of the views of the rest of the experts. They arent proclaiming this the start of the birth of AGI, ASI and the singularity like this sub is now doing on a daily basis. They are pretty clear that generative AI is a very transformative technology but it is NOT AGI. Nor do we have have any reason to think its close. Most estimates (guesses) are still 2030 or beyond

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1II1I11II1I1I111I1 t1_jee9x9f wrote

Watch this interview with Ilya Sutskever if you get the chance. The chief engineer (the brains) of OpenAI. If you read between the lines, or even take what he says at face value, it seems to him like there are very few hurdles between the paradigm of scaling LLMs and achieving AGI. We're very clearly on track, and very clearly the pace is only increasing. Unless regulation slows down AGI, it's most likely here before 2030.

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Professional_Copy587 t1_jeebr3y wrote

NOT clearly on track. Poll the experts on how to achieve AGI, poll them whether we are track. The majority of the answers you'll get are "We don't know". Yes youll find one expert that says something different but overall we don't know.

This may very well be one part of what is required to achieve AGI, the remaining components may take another 50 years to figure out. Early progress in fusion research led people to believe we'd have fusion power stations by the time I was an adult. Early progress in computer science thought the same about AI.

We do not know how close we are or understand how to get closer. All we know is generative AI is an interesting tech that will revolutionize many industry's

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HeavyMetalLyrics t1_jeery4a wrote

At first I found him inspiring. But as the interview concluded, he left me with a sinister vibe.

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Automatic_Paint9319 t1_jeetzmq wrote

Sinister? Care to elaborate?

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HeavyMetalLyrics t1_jefwkjy wrote

I reframed from seeing him as a benevolent technologist to a capitalist CEO who knows he’s unleashing something extremely dangerous in service of gaining massive amounts of wealth and fame/notoriety.

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Jalen_1227 t1_jegjgul wrote

I honestly feel like they’re all thinking like that including Sam. I hope Sam doesn’t turn out to be the next hitler

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HeavyMetalLyrics t1_jegl0kn wrote

I don’t think it’ll be anything like that; more like he’ll unleash something that he can’t contain. He’ll make a Killing and go down in (the remaining few months or years of) history before the AI somehow eradicates human life.

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amplex1337 t1_jedvacf wrote

I still find more useful code examples from Google search more quickly than chatGPT. Even 4.0 spits out code that doesn't work way too often and I am debugging and finding bad API urls, finding PowerShell cmdlets that don't exist, finding the information is outdated or just doesn't work, etc.. It's often faster just to RTFM. Hate to be in the 'get off my lawn' camp because it's still exciting technology, and I've considered myself a futurist for >20 years, but I completely agree. We could have an AGI by 2025 but I'm not sure if we are as close as people think, and the truth is no one knows how close we really are to it, or if we are even on the right path at all yet. It's nice to give people hope, but don't get addicted to hopium.

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1II1I11II1I1I111I1 t1_jeea3wq wrote

>the truth is no one knows how close we really are to it, or if we are even on the right path at all yet.

Watch this interview with Ilya Sutskever. He seems pretty confident about the future, and the obstacles between here and AGI. The inside knowledge at OpenAI definitely knows how close we are to AGI, and scaling LLMs is no longer outside the realm of feasibility to achieve it.

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Shiningc t1_jeeedon wrote

At this point it's a cult. People hyping up LLM have no idea what they're talking about and they're just eating up corporate PR and whatever dumb hype the articles write about.

These people are in it for a disappointment in a year or two. And I'm going to be gloating with "I told you so".

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Professional_Copy587 t1_jeehzwu wrote

Hopefully the sub returns to what it was as it was a reasonable subbreddit before all this delusion

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NefariousNaz t1_jeeqt2k wrote

This sub always leaned optimistic side. I would say sub has become far more pessimistic past year or two with influx of new members.

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