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Professional_Copy587 t1_jedo32c wrote

Reply to comment by seas2699 in Goddamn it's really happening by BreadManToast

Ok, disregard his view. Go look at the majority of the views of the rest of the experts. They arent proclaiming this the start of the birth of AGI, ASI and the singularity like this sub is now doing on a daily basis. They are pretty clear that generative AI is a very transformative technology but it is NOT AGI. Nor do we have have any reason to think its close. Most estimates (guesses) are still 2030 or beyond

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1II1I11II1I1I111I1 t1_jee9x9f wrote

Watch this interview with Ilya Sutskever if you get the chance. The chief engineer (the brains) of OpenAI. If you read between the lines, or even take what he says at face value, it seems to him like there are very few hurdles between the paradigm of scaling LLMs and achieving AGI. We're very clearly on track, and very clearly the pace is only increasing. Unless regulation slows down AGI, it's most likely here before 2030.

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Professional_Copy587 t1_jeebr3y wrote

NOT clearly on track. Poll the experts on how to achieve AGI, poll them whether we are track. The majority of the answers you'll get are "We don't know". Yes youll find one expert that says something different but overall we don't know.

This may very well be one part of what is required to achieve AGI, the remaining components may take another 50 years to figure out. Early progress in fusion research led people to believe we'd have fusion power stations by the time I was an adult. Early progress in computer science thought the same about AI.

We do not know how close we are or understand how to get closer. All we know is generative AI is an interesting tech that will revolutionize many industry's

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