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arindale t1_ir0kosi wrote

I think it will be difficult to pinpoint the month (and possibly calendar year) that AGI hits. We'll likely have a model that is superhuman in some traits but very amateur in others.

But let's say for an AGI, we have a model that is generally agreed is AGI, and we know as of the date it is released that it is AGI. Still not much will happen in the month following. Access to the model will likely be controlled. Model improvements will be made for efficiency, and there will need to be some form of scale up period even if it's open source.

In the months following release, if access is broad (either open source or via a cost-efficient API), we will see developers slowly incorporate the technology into their product. But adoption will likely not be as quick due to user distrust (would you trust an AI to complete your tax return or pick up your kids from school?)

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kmtrp OP t1_ir1vibx wrote

I don't think it'd be released, knowledge is power, and we are talking about super-human knowledge. Maybe an open source version, but I feel we'll be close to extinction or in some other unimaginable crazy state by that point. Wouldn't Google or whoever has it use it to solve all their engineering challenges, file 50.000 amazing patents, and sell all the magic-like products they can now make to become even richer?

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