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arevealingrainbow t1_irdsjjj wrote

>Will progress always go up?

Likely no. Humanity will still be limited by what is physically possible. The exception is if we find a way to create new universes or travel to other ones. Then here likely is no roof to our progress. Either way, this progress cap is so far in the future it is on absolutely nobody’s radar.

>Are we really creating AGI and it’s not far away?

Hard to tell. I am in the camp that AGI will likely happen in the 2060’s because that is the scholarly consensus among machine learning experts. Likely we will achieve many things very early with AI that we wouldn’t have assumed was possible, but also be behind actually achieving AGI.

>Won’t the energy crisis bury the dream of the Singularity?

Probably not. Humanity’s ability to create and output energy is increasing all the time. Considering increasing energy output and a stagnating global population, it likely won’t be an issue. Especially since models are likely to become much more energy efficient.

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Lone-Pine t1_ire5szm wrote

> AGI will likely happen in the 2060’s because that is the scholarly consensus among machine learning experts.

They only run these polls every few years. I'm certain if a poll of ML engineers/scientists were run today, the average would be in the 2040s. Most of the more vocal people in the industry (Sam Altman, Demis Hassibis) regularly predict on Twitter very short timelines.

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Mokebe890 t1_irdt1uj wrote

Well I mean rather 10 - 20 years ahead not as far in future tho.

May you provide some insight? Im in camp by 2030 or 2030 - 2040 but would like to see some papers about as far as 2060. Looking at current model or following Altman you could think that is a lot sooner.

Good point but for example in Europe combine war in Ukraine and almost every country here will have energy crisis this winter, going as much as closing the schools and facilitie.

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arevealingrainbow t1_irdthee wrote

The energy crisis that Europe is facing is a temporary speedbump, like the oil crisis of the 70’s for the US. This will accelerate the transition to green energy. With this accelerating transition and Fusion research, I estimate that pretty much all of Humanity’s energy woes will be entirely eliminated by 2100.

I made my guess of 2060 as a general average of when experts thing that we will create a super intelligence. The “singularity never” crowd is a minority that really lateshifts that estimate.

In 10-20 years, yeah progress will continue to accelerate.

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