NeutrinosFTW t1_irdpatt wrote on October 7, 2022 at 7:21 AM

Reply to comment by beachmike in “Extrapolation of this model into the future leads to short AI timelines: ~75% chance of AGI by 2032” by Dr_Singularity

Both the agricultural and the industrial revolutions only increased the amount of energy that humanity can use to do work, they didn't introduce new players to the game. The advent of ASI means the creation of an entity with greater capabilities than humanity and (possibly) divergent goals, which is something that's never happened before. Most experts believe the singularity will lead to one of the two extremes for us (total annihilation or AI-powered utopia).

beachmike t1_irehbdg wrote on October 7, 2022 at 1:25 PM

So-called "experts" are often wrong. In fact, there are NO experts on the technological singularity. If we knew what was actually coming, it wouldn't be a singularity event. A singularity, by definition, is unknowable by anything outside of it. However, you miss my point. Every revolution in human affairs brings advantages for humans as well as disadvantages and many new problems. Therefore, the mythical utopia WILL NOT occur. I highly doubt that ONLY one of two extremes will occur as a result of a technological singularity. That's far too simplistic.

Mr_Hu-Man t1_irhzyeg wrote on October 8, 2022 at 9:22 AM

I agree with you, but then disagree with you. You first make the point that the definition of the singularity is that what happens on other side is unknowable, then in the next sentence you make hard predictions. I get what you’re saying, but I’d change your language to say that ‘the mythical utopia MAY NOT occur….or MAYBE it will 🤷🏻‍♂️ we literally can’t know’

beachmike t1_irm3exb wrote on October 9, 2022 at 8:41 AM

I believe the mythical utopia is forever unobtainable for legacy humans even after the technological singularity, due to our very make-up. However, for those of us who choose to move into the infinite realm beyond human (which the singularity will make possible), all bets are off.

Mr_Hu-Man t1_irm4j2e wrote on October 9, 2022 at 8:57 AM

Love that response. And I think I agree. Thanks!