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Sashinii t1_iuarwqf wrote

I've been saying the entertainment industry will become obsolete due to synthetic media in 2026 for months, and while that might seem too soon linearly, it's right on schedule exponentially.


HeinrichTheWolf_17 t1_iuasmfp wrote

This is all a clear sign things are moving faster than humans can comprehend, I had people telling me video generated content via AI was years off from image generation, yet Google’s Video Generation is already making coherent clips of elephants walking or teddy bears skateboarding in NYC within months of coherent image generation.

Everyone thought Kurzweil was crazy, but we knew all along exponentials are only going to increase, returns will continue to accelerate. This process has been going on a long time now, it just really started to ramp up during the industrial revolution in the 19th century.

We’re gonna blast off soon.


PrivateLudo OP t1_iuatb2x wrote

DALL-E 1 and 2 were not even a year from each other


IndependenceRound453 t1_iub9ob0 wrote

What? Dalle 1 came out in Jan 2021, while Dalle 2 came out in Apr 2022. That's a year plus three months from each other.


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrz82 wrote

Your joking right text to voice AI existed for along time I wouldn’t assume text to image would be that later on….either way majority of machine learning and AI researcher don’t buy into that whole ray kurzweil stuff which tells you a lot but time will tell


PrivateLudo OP t1_iuat7mc wrote

Ironically, it looks like complex physical labour will last longer than most tech, art and entertainment jobs.


AugustusClaximus t1_iub7ekj wrote

Doctors will be automated before nurses.


futebollounge t1_iuhhh0w wrote

This sounds like me preaching to my friends. I fully agree. You could automate physicians today. Surgeons not yet.

Only thing that will keep doctors employed is really strong lobby and gatekeeping.


imlaggingsobad t1_iub0aco wrote

repetitive desk jobs like accounting, admin, law, are probably in danger too


Mooblegum t1_iub4tro wrote

Everything that can be done with our brain will be done better with a software I guess.


ActuaryGlittering16 t1_iubww3q wrote

Most attorney jobs are gonna be super easy gigs in the handful of years before they’re automated away. I do think older folks will generally want a human attorney to walk them through things, but the day to day work outside of talking to clients and other attorneys will be a cakewalk.


thebardingreen t1_iuc31wb wrote

Laws are just software anyway.

The hardware is "collections of human minds" and the os is just government.


RavenWolf1 t1_iubf3uz wrote

Yeah. But I could imagine that this AI tech will help dramatically invent new materials for robots, design more efficient ways to build robots and test them in virtual environments. Real robots might come sooner than we think but of course it will take more time than digital world and nobody can't construct robots in billions very fast.


Down_The_Rabbithole t1_iud0blv wrote

Physical labor jobs will be the last ones to go. Intellectual jobs that require you working with a keyboard will be the first ones to get automated.

No one expected artists and programmers to be the first to get automated away, but here we are.


SWATSgradyBABY t1_iub4epm wrote

Not ironic at all. We all knew that exponential progress interfacing with the physical world would take longer for straightforward reasons of political economy more so than lack of technical knowledge


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubs3in wrote

Depends on the entertainment jobs but yes obviously since hardware is a lot harder to manufacture than software


imlaggingsobad t1_iuazfjh wrote

I had an argument with some people on Reddit recently and they all thought an AI that could do useful day-to-day tasks like browsing the internet was 50-100 years away. fkn lol


AsuhoChinami t1_iubc643 wrote

I learned this a long, long time ago: don't bother arguing with people who aren't into technology about technology. Just... don't. The vast majority of people have very strong and utterly inflexible opinions on these subjects despite knowing nothing about them.


PrivateLudo OP t1_iubp1bj wrote

I feel like its coping mechanism for a lot of them… they dont want to lose their job or for the world to change this much


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrrz8 wrote

I mean we could say 60% of people on this sub want to live in their own full dive anime world and fuck Waifus


BrilliantResort8146 t1_iudqh8l wrote

Heck yeah lol


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iuemt0t wrote

That’s like rats dreaming of using full dive to get infinite cheese….it’s dumb for the advancement of our human race and would stop us from progressing


Ortamis t1_iubxf30 wrote

I mean you say that, but this sub often gives me a feeling of immense amounts of coping and arrogance as well. There have been many posts describing how great such technological advancements are and how little every day normie knows about these things. Its laughable right? Fucking normies just living their normie lives not realizing whats coming while we know and are prepared...

Well I think in reality this sub is scared shitless and people are deluding ourselves with some utopian foresights that most likely wont come true. To me its obvious that soon all of our fundamental concepts will be shaken so much that 99% if not 100% of the people on this sub wont be able to take it. At least normies will enjoy these last few years of normalcy without having to think about these things.


imlaggingsobad t1_iuc7lh3 wrote

I'm going into this decade fully expecting normal life to be fundamentally re-shaped. I'm not scared about this future because I've accepted that it's sort of inevitable, but also it's ultimately what's best for our species. I'm also not gonna prepare in any way, because really what can we do? Just need to embrace it once it happens.


zynthalay t1_iuc9f70 wrote

I don't think getting mulched is particularly good for the species. I recommend less "out of my hands" fatalism and more trying to shape the future.


claushauler t1_iudvtli wrote

Here's the thing I think people are forgetting- it's good for a species (AI) but not our species (homo sapiens). The machines are not us.


ArthurAardvark t1_iucvvhy wrote

That's also where I'm at. Though, I'm not necessarily convinced in something like this. It's one thing to create video/art. But people will not want AI art (not to say art enhanced by AI, as a tool). That is/will be a gimmick.

Story Creation has proven to be a whole 'nother animal. AI can create coherent sentences...but the content is more often than not nonsensical. A paragraph – let alone an entire story? Utter nonsense. Context is everything.

And that idea of everything for video/art too. Why will people be driven to watch AI driven content if it is not true-to-life (graphically speaking)? All I have created/seen has been painting-like creations. I could see 90% of cartoon-type media becoming "drawn" and/or utilized as a tool (enhanced) by AI for efficiency sake.

People will still be watching Tik Toks created by real people. Stories about real-life events will still be written by humans, simply, at most, edited/enhanced by AI. Or I do suppose it may be closed-minded to not expect that in 5-10 years AI would be digesting the video content or the spoken experiences of witnesses/observers and turning that into an objective (of sorts) article on whatever story developed.

Also, there will be a huge sense of distrust/lack of faith in the competency of AI for decade(s). I think the neckbeard armchair expert estimations of anything <10 years is just coping, a means of feeling superior to le IgNoRaNT nOrMieS. Until there is trust in the competency of AI, it will not be adopted en-masse.

Lastly I tend to agree with your last sentiment. I know the only way I've coped with it is by "forgetting" what's to come. It doesn't help that for whatever reason there's no content out there that provides any sort of "this is how things will be when everything is automated and this is why the human condition will continue to exist and 10 reasons why we won't be depressed, purposeless wrecks!" articles/media out there.


zynthalay t1_iuc9cjd wrote

In most futures we get mulched. If you're worried about it, try to increase your dignity. Were you planning to do something else while you wait for the lights to go out?


fuck_your_diploma t1_iugafnj wrote

The Gell-Mann Amnesia effect.


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrp4i wrote

I feel like majority of people should take this advice including you tbh go actually interact with actual Ai researcher which there are plenty on the internet


AsuhoChinami t1_iubs7rg wrote

Uh... I don't know what exactly you are implying, but I do know plenty of people who are well-informed.


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubt14k wrote

Doesn’t sound like it do you lurk in machine learning subs or countless other in depth AI subs….the more boring and complicated the sub is the more truth it contains…..not like this hopium going on in this sub


AsuhoChinami t1_iubv3q8 wrote

You're more than a little annoying. I am perfectly well-educated on the reality of the situation and do not find it at all boring. Don't assume that people have no idea what they're talking about just because they hold a different opinion from you.


Redvolition t1_iub8a8t wrote

The biggest question for me is whether or not we are going to run into the same type of diminishing returns as Full Self-Driving did, as we get 90 to 99% of functionality really quick, but then the rest of the 10 to 1% takes forever.

Some commented, and I agree, that if it is indeed the case that the last few percent will be the hardest, then only the lower end of production value within the entertainment industry will see substantial disruption, such as indie, YouTube, manga, anime, and porn, but the big budged, big name producers, not so much, as their user base tends to include a higher percentage of people that would be upset about seeing a few stray edges or colors around, whereas the viewers of lower production content would not care so much.


TheSingulatarian t1_iubgaii wrote

We should see at a minimum more sci-fi and fantasy movies and TV as the production costs go down.


GenoHuman t1_iucwor2 wrote

that is an odd way to look at it, wouldn't AI disrupt processes within those larger producers too?


Powerful_Range_4270 t1_iubzbzc wrote

It will be harder but not impossible. Because that would mean there is something special about us that cant be automated. Self driving cars to me are not diminishing returns if you don't give up.


Kaarssteun t1_iuaykye wrote

Who are you and what did you do to Sashinii?! bold of you to assume it's not happening in 2023. What if the exponentials are exponential! :P


Sashinii t1_iuazp2k wrote

I'm a bot programmed by the real Sashinii for when she's busy watching Japanese animes.

"Even the rate of acceleration accelerates exponentially exponential!"


GeneralZain t1_iuaw43s wrote

no even 2026 may still be thinking too linearly...there's a high chance IMO that this is going to blow up much faster than we can imagine.


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubsat1 wrote

Are you an AI researcher? I feel making that much claims should atleast come from a place of knowledge


GeneralZain t1_iubucc5 wrote

you don't have to be a researcher to see how fast things are currently going. its also a safe bet that this trend will only get faster with ever improving AI in the mix...


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubv0lu wrote

  1. Are they tho? Yes neural AI is getting better but AI is barely making progress in countless of sectors… I feel like it feels fast because you are closely following it think about it the only thing you would’ve heard about AI progress would be image to text and that’s about it…..being on this sub helps

  2. No it’s not really a bet ….even ignoring that regular chips are about to hit their limit and that quantum computers are really reliable right now….innovation speeds up and might as well slow down its not predictable at all…..that’s why majority of AI researchers don’t buy into that “exponential growth” thing it’s probably because ray kurzweil is scared of deaths and wants singularity and AGI fast to save him from death


GeneralZain t1_iubyik7 wrote

>Are they tho?

yes objectively they are? this year alone should be proof enough of that. :P

the progress would have been made whether somebody posted it on this sub or not...its not like us seeing/talking about it changes the objective fact that progress is speeding up very quickly.


>even ignoring that regular chips are about to hit their limit and that quantum computers are really reliable right now

source on this? the current version of chips (flat and dense) are probably reaching their limits yes...but you can make those chips 3d...they don't have to stay flat. not to mention photonic computing...or even just improving the software to better use the available hardware (like matrix multiplication improvement!)


>innovation speeds up and might as well slow down its not predictable at al

Innovation historically happens in S curves, Brief periods of rapid progress, usually followed by a period of little progress, until we hit the next s curve ad infinitum...

BUT while there may be lulls between the S curves that doesn't mean progress is slowing down in aggregate, its quite the opposite, the time between S curves are getting shorter, and the amount of progress we are seeing is also increasing. in essence the S is slowly but surely turning into a straight up line over time (exponential one might say? ;) )

This year heralded the explosion of transformer models, that's literally an S curve development right there...what's important though is that this S curve could be the last.

if we keep building better AI it could be the key to just keep flying up the S curve till we reach the point where all technology is developed. all it takes is a good enough AI (whether it be AGI or ASI ;P pick your poison)


>that’s why majority of AI researchers don’t buy into that “exponential growth” thing

HUH?! WHO?! ima need source on this too...Gary Marcus maybe?


>Ray Kurzweil is scared of deaths and wants singularity and AGI fast to save him from death

ME TOO. but joking aside it doesn't matter if that's the reason why or not...just look around it progress and think ahead a few years...the writing's on the wall here...shits about to get crazy.


Baron_Samedi_ t1_iuc9n44 wrote

Technology might progress exponentially, but human cultures do not.

You have to factor that in.


ArthurAardvark t1_iucxf3k wrote

Agreed. I'm wondering if this'll effect the rate of adoption in all sectors, too. It must, but how much?...I guess no one knows


Baron_Samedi_ t1_iude7ud wrote

My guesss is that you can assume that adoption of AI-related tech will be faster where:

  • scalability is easiest

  • utility is highest

  • entertainment value is greatest


Artanthos t1_iue2br7 wrote

The entertainment industry won’t be obsolete. It will have significantly fewer workers.

You will still have directors and producers, though their jobs will change.

You will still have script writers coming up with new plots and stories, though much of the writing may be automated.

You will still have set and costume designers, though the sets and costumes will be digital and implementation will be mostly automated.

There won’t be many workers, but the decision makers and the creators will still be employed.


farcetragedy t1_iubnvka wrote

It is amazing how quickly things are happening.

I’ve been trying to get AI to write jokes though - not even close so far.

But hey, another 6 months - who knows? I wouldn’t be surprised.


Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrguy wrote

Obsolete? Yes AI could theoretically generate music and movies and even games but things like sports and social entertainment is still gonna be human- made content which entertainment companies could get ahold of….plus entertainment companies will have cutting edge tech which produce better material than average available AI


lovesdogsguy t1_iucxrzy wrote

Agreed. I thought it was a mistake to push the avatar sequel release dates back again. 2026 for Avatar 4 and 2028 for Avatar 5 seems risky. I'm sure people will still be partaking in traditional media, but maybe they won't?


Hands0L0 t1_iuavjc5 wrote

I've been toying around with Simple Diffusion and I feel like I could make my own Manga with some of the models that are out there, completely auto generated. Like, this is insane the quality that ai art is pumping out with simple text prompts and editing weights


PM_ME_UR_ETHDONATION t1_iubcr3k wrote

You can already do that with Waifu Diffusion but it can't do text yet, you would have to insert your own manga bubbles.


Hands0L0 t1_iuc3tg9 wrote

I mean I would have to do some editing, sure. But the actual art?? I can command a computer to produce whatever I want


Baron_Samedi_ t1_iuc9fn5 wrote

If you have your computer has a story worth telling, then why not put it out there?


ElvinRath t1_iuco3s5 wrote

I don't think you can really do that.

Yeah, it works great with static panels with one character, but if you want to make a panel with some characters interacting between them... It doesn't work well at all.


AI need to improve a lot to be able to handle several characters+details+action. A lot.

Of course, "a lot" in this field might be acomplished in 1-2 years, but I wouldn't be susprised if it took more time.


MattDaMannnn t1_iubnxue wrote

r/aicomics already has a few that aren’t bad (art wise, no idea about the story)


PolymorphismPrince t1_iuc2ta4 wrote


Has been banned apparently?


ElvinRath t1_iucnwf7 wrote

Anyone have info on why?


alphabet_order_bot t1_iucnwxy wrote

Would you look at that, all of the words in your comment are in alphabetical order.

I have checked 1,135,328,890 comments, and only 222,076 of them were in alphabetical order.


MattDaMannnn t1_iud5zew wrote

That’s really weird, I was on it just a few days ago


azriel777 t1_iudth5n wrote

Looks banned, WTF? What could they have possible been banned for? Any alt subs for it?


KimmiG1 t1_iudoxc0 wrote

Can they keep character design consistent between images?


quantummufasa t1_iuh94wk wrote

Not yet unfortunately, I wanted to make 40k comics but its not viable yet.


Ortamis t1_iubwars wrote

Can current AI models create new art styles? For example it was humans that came up with gothic art style, Berserk manga art style or Inkblot Cartoon art style.

We combined many different elements to give us that specific art style vibe that we were looking for. These art styles haven't existed before and took our society by storm once the creative part of the human brain created that concept.

Can current AI do that as well? Can it create art styles or themes that we haven't seen before? Is it capable of being a new Junji Ito or a new Hayao Miyazaki?

I feel like current AI can create amazing art, but innovation in the creative sector is still going to be done by humans for at least a couple of years. I could be wrong though so please let me know.


i_wayyy_over_think t1_iubynmg wrote

new styles? you can train on existing styles, then just add some random noise to the latent space. Or you can mix existing styles like you can mix various amounts of red, green, and blue to create new colors.

But I’d say humans would still be involved because even though an ai can generate a new style, it’s ultimately up to humans to decide If the art style is worth while to look at. But you can automate that ranking of art style a bit, indeed ai was used to filter on images worth training stable diffusion on.


jangid t1_iueckux wrote

You are talking about the styles which became popular. For every successful style there are 999 other styles that failed to become mainstream.

I agree, with AI the failure rate may be high for new styles in the early days. But over time, this will also improve. And may be there will be a time when AI can generate a new popular style at will.


mootcat t1_iuciuau wrote

Really? How do you address continuity in representing the same characters in multiple scenes? I've heard there are approaches for this, but haven't seen any played around with yet.


GoodToKnowYouAll t1_iuazx6j wrote

I believe it. It seems like 90% is already blog spam SEO focused crap.

This may bring a renaissance of "small internet"


BurlHopsBridge t1_iubr382 wrote

Shouldn't we mechanize a social media platform that is human verified? Like bots are entirely prohibited.


[deleted] t1_iubvm4q wrote



drsimonz t1_iuc9yl1 wrote

I've been saying this for like a decade. There is only one way the social media story ends: people will post under their true name, using cryptographically secure identity verification provided by their government or some kind of international cooperative. Something more secure than a credit card. You get exactly one identity. You do not get to create a new account. Every post is tied to your birth certificate, or your passport, for life. Sure, you can still post on others' behalf, but you're literally selling your identity. Eventually, even the dumbest members of society will understand that if you see a post without a verified identity, it's not trustworthy. Like, it's basically guaranteed to be advertisement, propaganda, or scammers. When Facebook first came out I remember people being really put off by having to use their real names, but at this point it seems like we've gotten over it, so I don't see the problem. The sooner this kind of platform takes off, the sooner we can reclaim our democracy.


kn4- t1_iud37qr wrote

Sounds ripe for manipulation. Governments or the owner of the service could easily create burner accounts for spewing propaganda, and it would be even more effective because most people would believe they were hearing it from a real person.


fuck_your_diploma t1_iud8spf wrote

Not if the identity is universally verifiable. Governments can create the fake history they want, if what your /u/drsimonz described is in any way tied to a temporal blockchain the governments can suck it, because they won’t be able to forge natural people anymore.

Also, this is the sole reason why we DONT use blockchain related social records in 2022, because intelligence agencies gotta be able to forge and forget people on a whim, and I’m talking about democracies.


drsimonz t1_iuh0z47 wrote

As much as people love to hate on blockchain, it does seem like a promising solution here. Most people don't really understand how powerful cryptography can be, when applied correctly. Still I have no idea which specific technologies might suit this problem best. It's hard problem.


drsimonz t1_iuh18cy wrote

Definitely, though I would argue that the same issue exists for currency, which is why USD is used so widely in other countries besides the US - people feel much safer using the dollar, backed by a world superpower, than they would using the local money with some dictator printed on just one side. Is the US banking system actually trustworthy? Absolutely not, but I guess it's all relative?


ArthurAardvark t1_iucxwiw wrote

I feel like this is our only hope in general. Small internet, biz, unless everyone just wants to be a mindless, purposeless drone who just sits around wanking each other on Meta. I don't though ¯_(ツ)_/¯


End3rWi99in t1_iub1xjz wrote

I feel like I've been watching this racing towards us at breakneck speed and unless you're just into this stuff you don't notice it at all. So I mention this concept to friends and while they can clearly see the quick progress, they don't see really where it can be applied and how that can impact people.


adt t1_iuatudy wrote

Hmmm.... This seems dated.

The article is from 18/Sep/2022.

The actual report is by Europol, from some time in 2022.

The report is citing a book by EU-advisor Nina Schick, from 6/Aug/2020.

So, the original source was written well before the public release of GPT-3, and years before the release of current text-to-image (DALL-E 2, Midjourney, SD) and text-to-video capabilities.

I don't know what that means relative to the percentage quoted though!


PrivateLudo OP t1_iuauf2j wrote

Interesting. Thank you for the correction. Seems like the last year has only proven the topic’s point though.


Kaarssteun t1_iuayvq8 wrote

I'm very impressed by the authors in that regard. I myself wouldn't have thought this would be possible before Dalle2 - and nowadays people think my timelines are batshit crazy.


StevieTV t1_iub62c1 wrote

The growth of computing power used in AI is currently doubling every 3.4 months.

That means we could see a similar difference in the AI of today and the AI at the end of the 2020s as we saw between computers made in the early 1980s and today.


PrivateLudo OP t1_iub6koi wrote

Wow… thats crazy to think about. This decade will be insane


Down_The_Rabbithole t1_iud2x4i wrote

Honestly the 2020s has already had way more events than a normal decade has. A global pandemic, the first large european war since WW2, AI content generation revolution.

In the history books of the future the 2000s and 2010s will be 2-3 pages long while the 2020s will have 10-20 pages dedicated to it. "Pages" since I doubt there will be actual physical books of course.


thcthrowaway314 t1_iud96yk wrote

You could probably write a whole book on the 2000s/2010s! In the 2000s alone there was the world trade center attack, war in the middle east, dotcom crash of 2000, '08 financial/housing crisis, iphone release/rise of smartphones, social media begins, streaming begins, global internet usage quadruples, etc. I'm not saying we won't have more events happening in 2020s but the 2000s and 2010s were not exactly quiet.


Down_The_Rabbithole t1_iudaaxk wrote

That's nothing compared to the 1980s and 1990s though. The collapse of the 2nd world power and an entire ideology and its effects were insane and the 1990s brought the rise of the internet.

The world trade center attacks and middle eastern wars are side notes in history as they didn't really have as big of an impact. It's just that so few important events happened in those decades that they look relatively big, but in the scheme of things they were minor almost irrelevant events.

Smartphones are just a continuation of computer and internet technology, not a real innovation, just a marketing term, same for social media and streaming which were all just continuations of the 1990s World Wide Web and computerization of society.

The 2000s and 2010s were relatively quiet. I'm sure they will be termed "The silent decades" or something in the future due to how little of note happened here. Maybe they will be tainted by the (now naive) assumption of globalism and the world becoming more peaceful on its own over time through trade now that the world is again splitting into two separate economies, those of liberal democracies in the west and authoritarian systems in the east.


thcthrowaway314 t1_iuddhim wrote

Isn't most technology just a continuation of past technology? I think we'll have to agree to disagree, the 2000s and 2010s were an extremely transformative period.


Quealdlor t1_iuexwqw wrote

I expect gradual slowing down of the doubling in AI compute. The doubling times will be getting longer. So don't expect some miracles to happen by the end of this decade.


JeffNotARobot t1_iub44vm wrote

Hopefully all the viewers will also be AI generated, and actual humans can drop the internet and go back to skateboarding and hiking and the library and cloud watching.


Down_The_Rabbithole t1_iud3171 wrote

I've come to hate the internet and computer technology over time. And I'm a Computer Scientist. I just want to experience nature and have a good time with close ones while still alive.


Kinexity t1_iub3cuz wrote

It's probably right but not the way many people may think. By 2026 AI will be generating bottom 90% of content which isn't the part people look for. Top content will remain exclusively human-made for probably at least a decade.


AsuhoChinami t1_iuba5di wrote

Hehe <3 Sounds fun... the rapid rate of progress is actually making me happy to be alive.


sunplaysbass t1_iub0mov wrote

I don’t think that will be the case but I like the optimism.


tedd321 t1_iuirp5c wrote

I’m pessimistic about most of this stuff, but people are right now: generating entire stories with AI and generating entire 100% photo real images with AI.

Google already built a crappy video generator.

This one smells correct


cy13erpunk t1_iubshmh wrote


i could get behind 50% tho

obvs the semantics around what is 'content' is the crux here


drivealone t1_iub0c3e wrote

So glad I'm going to be obsolete as a cinematographer in 4 years..


PrivateLudo OP t1_iub3eb9 wrote

I mean… majority of human tasks will technically become obsolete by 2030+. Most of us will be on the same boat. Enjoy the moment and dont take life too seriously is my motto.


Erickaltifire t1_iub5b7c wrote

Back to the ole Bolex 16 I suppose.....


drivealone t1_iugi9l0 wrote

Luckily I still have one! Honestly I think people will value analog media even more as AI makes more digital media


Redvolition t1_iub7gan wrote

Here is my timeline.

Capacity Available

(Q2 2024) Produces realistic and stylized videos in 720p resolution and 24 fps via applying post processing on crude 3D input. The videos are almost temporally consistent frame to frame, yet require occasional correction. Watch the GTA demo, if you haven't already. It could look like a more polished version of that.

(Q1 2025) Produces realistic and stylized videos in 720p resolution and 24 fps from text or low entry-barrier software, and the result is nearly indistinguishable from organic production, although with occasional glitches.

(Q3 2026) AI produces realistic and stylized videos in high resolution and frame rate from text or low entry-barrier software, and the result is truly indistinguishable from organic production. Emerging software allow for fine tuning, such as camera position, angle, speed, focal lenght, depth of field, etc.

(Q4 2027) Dedicated software packages for AI video generation are in full motion, making almost all traditional 3D software as we know obsolete. Realistic high resolution videos can be crafted with the click of a button or a text prompt already, but professionals use these softwares for further fine control.

Temporal and Narrative Consistency

(Q1 2025) Temporal consistency is good frame to frame, yet not perfect, and visual glitches still occur from time to time, requiring one form or another of manual labor to clean up. In addition, character and environment stability or coherence across several minutes of video is not yet possible.

(Q1 2026) The videos are temporally consistent frame to frame, without visual flickering or errors, but lack long-term narrative consistency tools across several minutes of video, such as character expressions, mannerisms, fine object details, etc.

(Q3 2027) Perfect visuals with text input and dedicated software capable of maintaining character and environment stability to the finest details and coherence across several minutes or hours of video.

Generalization Effectiveness

(Current) Only capable of producing what it has been trained for, and does not generalize into niche or highly specific demands, including advanced or fantastical elements for which an abundance of data does not exist.

(Q1 2025) Does generalize into niche or highly specific demands, such as advanced or fantastical elements for which an abundance of data does not exist, yet the results are subpar compared to organic production.

(Q2 2027) Results are limitless and perfectly generalize into all reasonable demands, from realistic, to stylized, fantastical, or surreal.

Computational Resources

(Current) Only supercomputers can generate videos with sufficient high resolution and frame rate for more than a couple of seconds.

(Q2 2025) High end personal computers or expensive subscription services need to be employed to achieve sufficient high resolution and frame rate for more than a couple of seconds.

(Q4 2028) An average to low end computer or cheap subscription service is capable of generating high resolution and frame rate videos spanning several minutes.


Dras_Leona t1_iub83io wrote

Ok but what % of human attention will be pointed towards AI content?


throwaway764586893 t1_iubauvi wrote

The kind of content I'm interested in they literally don't even make 1KB per decade of.


mcshadypants t1_iub229y wrote

So AI is going to produce pornography aay?


blueSGL t1_iub6nox wrote

of course it will, whatever scenarios you want, forever.

The moral panic is going to be insane to watch.

(have you seen the names of some of the Stable Diffusion fine tunes? Like that, and more for video)


PM_ME_UR_ETHDONATION t1_iubdawy wrote

There's already people on certain discords endlessly fapping to Waifu/Hentai diffusion and using things like NovelAI to generate stories... they're really good at using prompts to generate porn.

Once you can generate videos, games, music and voices... it will go up another level.

And once VR evolves, it will go up yet another level.


tedd321 t1_iuirxae wrote

You can do it right. Look up unstable diffusion.


Bakoro t1_iub7rxu wrote

I am looking forward to seeing all the D&D campaigns which get transcribed to video.


zorflax t1_iucopi2 wrote

We will see custom entertainment by AI soon. Writes you a novel based on your good reads ratings, makes a movie for you based on your Netflix history, designs games for you based on your play time and style. I am really looking forward to it honestly. If anything it will elevate human art to a niche, bespoke category.


Quealdlor t1_iug6dly wrote

Yeah, assuming humans use the AIs responsibly and with goodness in mind, which is doubtful.


iiSamJ t1_iue7ig1 wrote

So the amount of human generated content stays the same, but AI will be making more and more until it's 90%? (Hypothetically)


tedd321 t1_iuiress wrote

Humans will be using AI to generate content


Mooblegum t1_iub4kxw wrote

So 89% of the people working online will be jobless (1% will work with AI I guess) Time to look for a job in a farm.


Erickaltifire t1_iub5il6 wrote

The best Herb is human grown as far as I know and I have been puffing since the early 90s.


neversinkatsea t1_iucspt7 wrote

Does anyone else remember being high af and chatting with Cleverbot and getting paranoid as hell? I think AI is really cool, especially related to art. I’m interested in seeing where this all will lead.

Edit did any of y’all read that Ray Kurzweil book that came out in the mid-2000s? It was pretty mind-opening.


Taron221 t1_iubbuyq wrote

I sort of expect legislation to get thrown into the mix at some point. A lot of AI is walking a dubious legal line of copying and mimicry by exploiting or crawling a ‘free and open’ internet. Particularly the ones that target specific artist, even brazenly telling you that’s exactly what they’re doing. If not for copyright laws being archaic for the technological age, I’m not even sure a lot of them would exist.


PrivateLudo OP t1_iubpepq wrote

Good luck telling out of touch boomers in congress to create laws for Artificial Intelligence. AI will evolve every year and bypass the law through its progress.


Taron221 t1_iubq2t1 wrote

It’s possible. They aren’t true AI though, and this generation of AI seems to operate via web crawling, which means they’re vulnerable to any litigation at all, whether that be state or international litigation. If one country says they aren’t permitted to ‘copy, mimic, or compile from copyrighted material,’ that would be a wrench in this whole generation of AI. You can already see the music industry making moves to lobby against them.


PrivateLudo OP t1_iubuskw wrote

Good point. That is def true. But I could see another country like China taking advantage of the laws mandated in the West to get a step ahead in AI development and I dont think the US wants that to happen


Taron221 t1_iubwwoe wrote

Well, I foresee legislation or litigation in the entertainment industry (writing, music, art, etc.), and frankly, I wouldn’t mind. There are legitimate concerns there with say people stealing identities or making videos/pictures they can use to blackmail others. Not to mention the unforeseen consequences that could come from making AIs the unchallenged social & culture setters.

Anyway, what’s really important to advancement is the tech, science, and medical industries. Those paths are the game changers.


mere_iguana t1_iubxvoz wrote

Yeah but the thing is, the greedy bastards will want to cut corners there too.

The quality of said content will SEVERELY decline once this becomes "standard practice"


mildlettuce t1_iub33pq wrote

It will start as ‘organic’ content generated to promote products, and will very quickly be taken over in volume by militaries world wide who will generate enormous amounts of content to sway public opinion and wage psychological warfare.


Black_RL t1_iud91a0 wrote

Twitter already is……

Bots talking to bots! Lol


ApprehensiveCut2058 t1_iuf3gvn wrote

Can't wait for trolling to evolve to the level of "here's a photorealistic video of your children being tortured and killed".


FREE-AOL-CDS t1_iuk1r9m wrote

About to have shovelware ai posts


Andreas1120 t1_iuav6h9 wrote

Will the AI not be an asshole? The YES


Mooblegum t1_iub4xum wrote

Are the « experts » humans or AI generated ?


EN1009 t1_iubcvkw wrote

If we thought headlines were nonsensical now…


ziplock9000 t1_iucetbt wrote

Experts: We say the obvious


Ribak145 t1_iucjuhx wrote

more like 99%+


policemenconnoisseur t1_iud3xum wrote

And 95% of that content will only be consumed by bots gathering data for reporting statistics.


gthing t1_iudj5ib wrote

And by 2040 all content will only be ready by AIs as well.


Early_Professor469 t1_iuduk8s wrote

the rate as to which tech is adopted is insane to think of and there are so many people coming online, learning and contributing to something. very interesting to see where things are in ten years with ai generated content


TuiAndLa t1_iue202d wrote

Seems like something an AI would say 😟


EulersApprentice t1_iue9m8g wrote

How much you wanna bet that article is AI written?


Quealdlor t1_iuexj0c wrote

I believe in the 80-20 rule.

Getting to 80% of image synthesis takes 5 years, but the last 20% will take another 20 years.

Similarly with text, voice and video. So for the near future, I will prefer human output to machine output, but that is going to change eventually.

If 90% of content will be AI-generated by 2026, then that content will be crappy. Not to say that human content is good.


ApprehensiveCut2058 t1_iuf3a3a wrote

Wait until it's easy to produce images that look realistic enough to implicate you in a crime. Realistic enough to make people not question why you were thrown in jail or outright killed by the state.

"Well clearly, you can see on this secury camera feed that he was holding a weapon."


Quealdlor t1_iug62xo wrote

I am seriously worried that people are and will be using AI irresponsibly. <( _ _ )>
It is up to us humans to use AI responsibly, reasonably, conscientiously, levelheadedly and rationally. (ㆆ_ㆆ)

If we f**k this up, it will be our fault, not AI's. AI is a tool. We are executive and in control. AI is not an invasion of aliens. WE are creating AI, not God, not aliens and it doesn't create itself.


MarromBrown t1_iucupph wrote

I’m not worried. AI can’t match human ingenuity and creativity. Limitation breeds innovation- nowhere is this better seen than videogames, for example. It’s like a puzzle. AI can work in a scope unimaginable to us but it can never replicate true human creativity. It’s not writing passionate stories good enough for a writer to compliment anytime soon


TheLastSamurai t1_iujc6sm wrote

That’s simply not true, it will.


MarromBrown t1_iujceyi wrote

damn, thank you TheLastSamurai, clearly an AI authority.

I don’t doubt that it would but at least elaborate dude… how delusional do you have to be to think “that’s not true, yes it will” is an argument that works above kindergarten level?


TheLastSamurai t1_iujdcpl wrote

I think you’re underestimating how fast AI has been moving and how fast it will improve. It’s been breakneck pave the past two years for content and scaling will obviously keep going


MarromBrown t1_iujfcn9 wrote

True, but art is a whole different beast. AI can replicate styled very well, mesh them together etc. creating something truly innovative is hard. This is ESPECIALLY true for writing. So much of writing comes from experience, especially poetry. I think it’s incredibly hard for AI to be able to write poetry about human feelings, only replicate it. It wouldn’t be honest. It’s like, to the common man it might seem fine but I think artists worth their salt while not able to tell, can identify that it’s not really doing anything new.

What I AM looking forward to is AI poetry about what it’s like to be an AI. That to me is fascinating


TheLastSamurai t1_iujihzr wrote

You may be right, I guess we'll see right? I think it can write something very very similar probably just based on ML inputs even if it's not entirely original, but we'll see very soon


MarromBrown t1_iujipr1 wrote

Indeed we will, and I am excited for it. I just find that AI art doesn’t really appeal to me in a conceptual level. “The best poem ever” doesn’t exist, you know? However, I am incredibly excited for AI in my field of actual study: psychology 👀


bartturner t1_iudd42q wrote

I would agree but a bit later date. More like 2030, IMHO.