Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Sashinii t1_iuarwqf wrote

I've been saying the entertainment industry will become obsolete due to synthetic media in 2026 for months, and while that might seem too soon linearly, it's right on schedule exponentially.

78

HeinrichTheWolf_17 t1_iuasmfp wrote

This is all a clear sign things are moving faster than humans can comprehend, I had people telling me video generated content via AI was years off from image generation, yet Google’s Video Generation is already making coherent clips of elephants walking or teddy bears skateboarding in NYC within months of coherent image generation.

Everyone thought Kurzweil was crazy, but we knew all along exponentials are only going to increase, returns will continue to accelerate. This process has been going on a long time now, it just really started to ramp up during the industrial revolution in the 19th century.

We’re gonna blast off soon.

60

PrivateLudo OP t1_iuatb2x wrote

DALL-E 1 and 2 were not even a year from each other

8

IndependenceRound453 t1_iub9ob0 wrote

What? Dalle 1 came out in Jan 2021, while Dalle 2 came out in Apr 2022. That's a year plus three months from each other.

26

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrz82 wrote

Your joking right text to voice AI existed for along time I wouldn’t assume text to image would be that later on….either way majority of machine learning and AI researcher don’t buy into that whole ray kurzweil stuff which tells you a lot but time will tell

2

PrivateLudo OP t1_iuat7mc wrote

Ironically, it looks like complex physical labour will last longer than most tech, art and entertainment jobs.

46

AugustusClaximus t1_iub7ekj wrote

Doctors will be automated before nurses.

16

futebollounge t1_iuhhh0w wrote

This sounds like me preaching to my friends. I fully agree. You could automate physicians today. Surgeons not yet.

Only thing that will keep doctors employed is really strong lobby and gatekeeping.

3

imlaggingsobad t1_iub0aco wrote

repetitive desk jobs like accounting, admin, law, are probably in danger too

15

Mooblegum t1_iub4tro wrote

Everything that can be done with our brain will be done better with a software I guess.

12

ActuaryGlittering16 t1_iubww3q wrote

Most attorney jobs are gonna be super easy gigs in the handful of years before they’re automated away. I do think older folks will generally want a human attorney to walk them through things, but the day to day work outside of talking to clients and other attorneys will be a cakewalk.

3

thebardingreen t1_iuc31wb wrote

Laws are just software anyway.

The hardware is "collections of human minds" and the os is just government.

3

RavenWolf1 t1_iubf3uz wrote

Yeah. But I could imagine that this AI tech will help dramatically invent new materials for robots, design more efficient ways to build robots and test them in virtual environments. Real robots might come sooner than we think but of course it will take more time than digital world and nobody can't construct robots in billions very fast.

7

Down_The_Rabbithole t1_iud0blv wrote

Physical labor jobs will be the last ones to go. Intellectual jobs that require you working with a keyboard will be the first ones to get automated.

No one expected artists and programmers to be the first to get automated away, but here we are.

6

SWATSgradyBABY t1_iub4epm wrote

Not ironic at all. We all knew that exponential progress interfacing with the physical world would take longer for straightforward reasons of political economy more so than lack of technical knowledge

2

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubs3in wrote

Depends on the entertainment jobs but yes obviously since hardware is a lot harder to manufacture than software

1

imlaggingsobad t1_iuazfjh wrote

I had an argument with some people on Reddit recently and they all thought an AI that could do useful day-to-day tasks like browsing the internet was 50-100 years away. fkn lol

39

AsuhoChinami t1_iubc643 wrote

I learned this a long, long time ago: don't bother arguing with people who aren't into technology about technology. Just... don't. The vast majority of people have very strong and utterly inflexible opinions on these subjects despite knowing nothing about them.

42

PrivateLudo OP t1_iubp1bj wrote

I feel like its coping mechanism for a lot of them… they dont want to lose their job or for the world to change this much

19

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrrz8 wrote

I mean we could say 60% of people on this sub want to live in their own full dive anime world and fuck Waifus

27

BrilliantResort8146 t1_iudqh8l wrote

Heck yeah lol

8

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iuemt0t wrote

That’s like rats dreaming of using full dive to get infinite cheese….it’s dumb for the advancement of our human race and would stop us from progressing

2

Ortamis t1_iubxf30 wrote

I mean you say that, but this sub often gives me a feeling of immense amounts of coping and arrogance as well. There have been many posts describing how great such technological advancements are and how little every day normie knows about these things. Its laughable right? Fucking normies just living their normie lives not realizing whats coming while we know and are prepared...

Well I think in reality this sub is scared shitless and people are deluding ourselves with some utopian foresights that most likely wont come true. To me its obvious that soon all of our fundamental concepts will be shaken so much that 99% if not 100% of the people on this sub wont be able to take it. At least normies will enjoy these last few years of normalcy without having to think about these things.

11

imlaggingsobad t1_iuc7lh3 wrote

I'm going into this decade fully expecting normal life to be fundamentally re-shaped. I'm not scared about this future because I've accepted that it's sort of inevitable, but also it's ultimately what's best for our species. I'm also not gonna prepare in any way, because really what can we do? Just need to embrace it once it happens.

6

zynthalay t1_iuc9f70 wrote

I don't think getting mulched is particularly good for the species. I recommend less "out of my hands" fatalism and more trying to shape the future.

1

claushauler t1_iudvtli wrote

Here's the thing I think people are forgetting- it's good for a species (AI) but not our species (homo sapiens). The machines are not us.

1

ArthurAardvark t1_iucvvhy wrote

That's also where I'm at. Though, I'm not necessarily convinced in something like this. It's one thing to create video/art. But people will not want AI art (not to say art enhanced by AI, as a tool). That is/will be a gimmick.

Story Creation has proven to be a whole 'nother animal. AI can create coherent sentences...but the content is more often than not nonsensical. A paragraph – let alone an entire story? Utter nonsense. Context is everything.

And that idea of context...is everything for video/art too. Why will people be driven to watch AI driven content if it is not true-to-life (graphically speaking)? All I have created/seen has been painting-like creations. I could see 90% of cartoon-type media becoming "drawn" and/or utilized as a tool (enhanced) by AI for efficiency sake.

People will still be watching Tik Toks created by real people. Stories about real-life events will still be written by humans, simply, at most, edited/enhanced by AI. Or I do suppose it may be closed-minded to not expect that in 5-10 years AI would be digesting the video content or the spoken experiences of witnesses/observers and turning that into an objective (of sorts) article on whatever story developed.

Also, there will be a huge sense of distrust/lack of faith in the competency of AI for decade(s). I think the neckbeard armchair expert estimations of anything <10 years is just coping, a means of feeling superior to le IgNoRaNT nOrMieS. Until there is trust in the competency of AI, it will not be adopted en-masse.

Lastly I tend to agree with your last sentiment. I know the only way I've coped with it is by "forgetting" what's to come. It doesn't help that for whatever reason there's no content out there that provides any sort of "this is how things will be when everything is automated and this is why the human condition will continue to exist and 10 reasons why we won't be depressed, purposeless wrecks!" articles/media out there.

5

zynthalay t1_iuc9cjd wrote

In most futures we get mulched. If you're worried about it, try to increase your dignity. Were you planning to do something else while you wait for the lights to go out?

2

fuck_your_diploma t1_iugafnj wrote

The Gell-Mann Amnesia effect.

1

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrp4i wrote

I feel like majority of people should take this advice including you tbh go actually interact with actual Ai researcher which there are plenty on the internet

−3

AsuhoChinami t1_iubs7rg wrote

Uh... I don't know what exactly you are implying, but I do know plenty of people who are well-informed.

4

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubt14k wrote

Doesn’t sound like it do you lurk in machine learning subs or countless other in depth AI subs….the more boring and complicated the sub is the more truth it contains…..not like this hopium going on in this sub

1

AsuhoChinami t1_iubv3q8 wrote

You're more than a little annoying. I am perfectly well-educated on the reality of the situation and do not find it at all boring. Don't assume that people have no idea what they're talking about just because they hold a different opinion from you.

8

Redvolition t1_iub8a8t wrote

The biggest question for me is whether or not we are going to run into the same type of diminishing returns as Full Self-Driving did, as we get 90 to 99% of functionality really quick, but then the rest of the 10 to 1% takes forever.

Some commented, and I agree, that if it is indeed the case that the last few percent will be the hardest, then only the lower end of production value within the entertainment industry will see substantial disruption, such as indie, YouTube, manga, anime, and porn, but the big budged, big name producers, not so much, as their user base tends to include a higher percentage of people that would be upset about seeing a few stray edges or colors around, whereas the viewers of lower production content would not care so much.

21

TheSingulatarian t1_iubgaii wrote

We should see at a minimum more sci-fi and fantasy movies and TV as the production costs go down.

5

GenoHuman t1_iucwor2 wrote

that is an odd way to look at it, wouldn't AI disrupt processes within those larger producers too?

2

Powerful_Range_4270 t1_iubzbzc wrote

It will be harder but not impossible. Because that would mean there is something special about us that cant be automated. Self driving cars to me are not diminishing returns if you don't give up.

1

Kaarssteun t1_iuaykye wrote

Who are you and what did you do to Sashinii?! bold of you to assume it's not happening in 2023. What if the exponentials are exponential! :P

10

Sashinii t1_iuazp2k wrote

I'm a bot programmed by the real Sashinii for when she's busy watching Japanese animes.

"Even the rate of acceleration accelerates exponentially exponential!"

18

GeneralZain t1_iuaw43s wrote

no even 2026 may still be thinking too linearly...there's a high chance IMO that this is going to blow up much faster than we can imagine.

9

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubsat1 wrote

Are you an AI researcher? I feel making that much claims should atleast come from a place of knowledge

9

GeneralZain t1_iubucc5 wrote

you don't have to be a researcher to see how fast things are currently going. its also a safe bet that this trend will only get faster with ever improving AI in the mix...

2

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubv0lu wrote

  1. Are they tho? Yes neural AI is getting better but AI is barely making progress in countless of sectors…..plus I feel like it feels fast because you are closely following it think about it the only thing you would’ve heard about AI progress would be image to text and that’s about it…..being on this sub helps

  2. No it’s not really a bet ….even ignoring that regular chips are about to hit their limit and that quantum computers are really reliable right now….innovation speeds up and might as well slow down its not predictable at all…..that’s why majority of AI researchers don’t buy into that “exponential growth” thing it’s probably because ray kurzweil is scared of deaths and wants singularity and AGI fast to save him from death

10

GeneralZain t1_iubyik7 wrote

>Are they tho?

yes objectively they are? this year alone should be proof enough of that. :P

the progress would have been made whether somebody posted it on this sub or not...its not like us seeing/talking about it changes the objective fact that progress is speeding up very quickly.

&#x200B;

>even ignoring that regular chips are about to hit their limit and that quantum computers are really reliable right now

source on this? the current version of chips (flat and dense) are probably reaching their limits yes...but you can make those chips 3d...they don't have to stay flat. not to mention photonic computing...or even just improving the software to better use the available hardware (like matrix multiplication improvement!)

&#x200B;

>innovation speeds up and might as well slow down its not predictable at al

Innovation historically happens in S curves, Brief periods of rapid progress, usually followed by a period of little progress, until we hit the next s curve ad infinitum...

BUT while there may be lulls between the S curves that doesn't mean progress is slowing down in aggregate, its quite the opposite, the time between S curves are getting shorter, and the amount of progress we are seeing is also increasing. in essence the S is slowly but surely turning into a straight up line over time (exponential one might say? ;) )

This year heralded the explosion of transformer models, that's literally an S curve development right there...what's important though is that this S curve could be the last.

if we keep building better AI it could be the key to just keep flying up the S curve till we reach the point where all technology is developed. all it takes is a good enough AI (whether it be AGI or ASI ;P pick your poison)

&#x200B;

>that’s why majority of AI researchers don’t buy into that “exponential growth” thing

HUH?! WHO?! ima need source on this too...Gary Marcus maybe?

&#x200B;

>Ray Kurzweil is scared of deaths and wants singularity and AGI fast to save him from death

ME TOO. but joking aside it doesn't matter if that's the reason why or not...just look around it progress and think ahead a few years...the writing's on the wall here...shits about to get crazy. crazy...er

1

Baron_Samedi_ t1_iuc9n44 wrote

Technology might progress exponentially, but human cultures do not.

You have to factor that in.

9

ArthurAardvark t1_iucxf3k wrote

Agreed. I'm wondering if this'll effect the rate of adoption in all sectors, too. It must, but how much?...I guess no one knows

1

Baron_Samedi_ t1_iude7ud wrote

My guesss is that you can assume that adoption of AI-related tech will be faster where:

  • scalability is easiest

  • utility is highest

  • entertainment value is greatest

1

Artanthos t1_iue2br7 wrote

The entertainment industry won’t be obsolete. It will have significantly fewer workers.

You will still have directors and producers, though their jobs will change.

You will still have script writers coming up with new plots and stories, though much of the writing may be automated.

You will still have set and costume designers, though the sets and costumes will be digital and implementation will be mostly automated.

There won’t be many workers, but the decision makers and the creators will still be employed.

2

farcetragedy t1_iubnvka wrote

It is amazing how quickly things are happening.

I’ve been trying to get AI to write jokes though - not even close so far.

But hey, another 6 months - who knows? I wouldn’t be surprised.

1

Desperate_Donut8582 t1_iubrguy wrote

Obsolete? Yes AI could theoretically generate music and movies and even games but things like sports and social entertainment is still gonna be human- made content which entertainment companies could get ahold of….plus entertainment companies will have cutting edge tech which produce better material than average available AI

1

lovesdogsguy t1_iucxrzy wrote

Agreed. I thought it was a mistake to push the avatar sequel release dates back again. 2026 for Avatar 4 and 2028 for Avatar 5 seems risky. I'm sure people will still be partaking in traditional media, but maybe they won't?

1