>Are they tho?

yes objectively they are? this year alone should be proof enough of that. :P

the progress would have been made whether somebody posted it on this sub or not...its not like us seeing/talking about it changes the objective fact that progress is speeding up very quickly.

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>even ignoring that regular chips are about to hit their limit and that quantum computers are really reliable right now

source on this? the current version of chips (flat and dense) are probably reaching their limits yes...but you can make those chips 3d...they don't have to stay flat. not to mention photonic computing...or even just improving the software to better use the available hardware (like matrix multiplication improvement!)

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>innovation speeds up and might as well slow down its not predictable at al

Innovation historically happens in S curves, Brief periods of rapid progress, usually followed by a period of little progress, until we hit the next s curve ad infinitum...

BUT while there may be lulls between the S curves that doesn't mean progress is slowing down in aggregate, its quite the opposite, the time between S curves are getting shorter, and the amount of progress we are seeing is also increasing. in essence the S is slowly but surely turning into a straight up line over time (exponential one might say? ;) )

This year heralded the explosion of transformer models, that's literally an S curve development right there...what's important though is that this S curve could be the last.

if we keep building better AI it could be the key to just keep flying up the S curve till we reach the point where all technology is developed. all it takes is a good enough AI (whether it be AGI or ASI ;P pick your poison)

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>that’s why majority of AI researchers don’t buy into that “exponential growth” thing

HUH?! WHO?! ima need source on this too...Gary Marcus maybe?

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>Ray Kurzweil is scared of deaths and wants singularity and AGI fast to save him from death

ME TOO. but joking aside it doesn't matter if that's the reason why or not...just look around it progress and think ahead a few years...the writing's on the wall here...shits about to get crazy. crazy...er