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rationalkat t1_irkc624 wrote

Some predictions for LEV:

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s2ksuch t1_irkszrn wrote

Nice post, this is all really good to have in one place

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RavenWolf1 t1_irl34uv wrote

About Dr. Aubrey de Grey predictions and others who work in longevity field, do they also take into consideration how computers and AI will develop in future? What i have noticed in generally with people who work in different fields they don't usually consider how AI progress would affect their field. They usually think linearly.

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rationalkat t1_irmad02 wrote

Aubrey de Grey himself is also a computer scientist, who worked on AI before he switched to geroscience, so I would assume, that he is aware of the progress and the implications of the field of AI on research in general and longevity in particular. Whether other scientists in the longevity field are aware of the exponential progress in AI is hard to tell, but I doubt many are, when even a significant number of AI researchers themselves believe, that AGI is many, many decades away.

I personally don't think, that AI will be a necessity for the first generation of rejuvenation therapies, but will probably be essential in the development of next generation therapeutics afterwards. LEV is a long steady process, that will prolong our lifes with each generation by a decade or two, until we reach generation x, that will finally turn our bodies back into healthy, pristine twenty year old ones.

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RavenWolf1 t1_irnkbu2 wrote

I don't believe too that AI is necessity at all but AI will speed things up.

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bluegman10 t1_iro1gwd wrote

>when even a significant number of AI researchers themselves believe, that AGI is many, many decades away.

Is the link you provided your proof of this statement? I'm asking because the Metaculus community prediction is 18 years (less than two decades) from now so I was just wondering if you based your statement on this prediction or on something else/other things. Or both.

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rationalkat t1_iro4xk3 wrote

When you scroll down on the Metaculus-site, you can see the distribution of predictions.
Here is another source, that shows the division among ai researchers. I group them roughly into two camps; one camp believes AGI is imminent (arrives before 2040) and the other believes, that the current deep learning systems are a dead end and human-level AI is far away.

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bluegman10 t1_iro9tkz wrote

Oh I see. Thanks for providing me another source!

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