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bluegman10 t1_iro1gwd wrote

Reply to comment by rationalkat in Thoughts on Ray Kurzweil's LEV prediction? by TheHamsterSandwich

>when even a significant number of AI researchers themselves believe, that AGI is many, many decades away.

Is the link you provided your proof of this statement? I'm asking because the Metaculus community prediction is 18 years (less than two decades) from now so I was just wondering if you based your statement on this prediction or on something else/other things. Or both.

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rationalkat t1_iro4xk3 wrote

When you scroll down on the Metaculus-site, you can see the distribution of predictions.
Here is another source, that shows the division among ai researchers. I group them roughly into two camps; one camp believes AGI is imminent (arrives before 2040) and the other believes, that the current deep learning systems are a dead end and human-level AI is far away.

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bluegman10 t1_iro9tkz wrote

Oh I see. Thanks for providing me another source!

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