CleaverIam OP t1_irsllx0 wrote on October 10, 2022 at 6:47 PM

Reply to comment by Wassux in Have we reached a technological plateau? by CleaverIam

>Nuclear fusion is here already. Spark will be done in 2025

So, is it here or will be done in 2025? And what do you mean by "done"? First plasma? That is not a practical application. It would be decades before it becomes commercially available. I doubt we would have a single real thermonuclear power plant operating in 2040.

>There's self driving cars are here

Self-driving car means you can sleep in the back seat while the car takes you to your destination. If it requires any driver's input during the ride it isn't a self driving car.

I don't take Elon Musk seriously do I am not commenting it.

>Android robots are amazing, have you seen boston dynamics?

Not outside youtube videos of them doing stunts I haven't. I haven't seen an android doing anything useful. I have never seen one used for anything other than as a gimick. Tell me this: where are they currently used commercially?

>Also quantum leap? So a leap so small you can't even see it with your microscope?

Yeah, very funny.

Wassux t1_irv77ba wrote on October 11, 2022 at 8:16 AM

By done I mean 10x the energy out than in. So ready to be deployed. And yes it will still take time to become commercial, but the tech has been invented, the rest is logistics.

Yes waymo has 0 human input, no driver whatsoever. Google it.

If you don't take Elon serious you're shooting yourself in the foot.

Haven't seen an android do anything useful? Nearly every car in the world is produced by robots. Tesla's are completely made by robots. How is that not useful?

To me it seems like you just want to be pessimistic.

CleaverIam OP t1_irw1s8e wrote on October 11, 2022 at 1:56 PM

Production lines are great but they have been here for years. And they are not androids. Android is by definition a human-like robot. I am not pessimistic. I am simply not seeing the rate of progress we had in the 20th century. I think that all the low hanging fruits are plucked and now we will experience a much slower rate of change. Elon Musk is a vaperware salesman. Most of his ideas are idiotic. The hyperloop, passenger ICBM, the tunnel, the dancing android costume. "Yes waymo has 0 human input, no driver whatsoever. Google it." Interesting. Does it drive along normal highways together with ordinary traffic? If so then this is big.

Wassux t1_irw27zo wrote on October 11, 2022 at 2:00 PM

So just because they don't look like humans they don't count? How narcissistic of you. Robots will never look humans because it would be stupid design.

You're just hellbent on being pessimistic.

Again google it, I'm done talking to you because you won't listen anyway.

CleaverIam OP t1_irw2od9 wrote on October 11, 2022 at 2:03 PM

They don't count because we had them long ago and they are not general purpose. If I am wrong about that then please tell me.

TFenrir t1_is5nno3 wrote on October 13, 2022 at 2:09 PM

So literally self-driving cars that you describe exist - level 4 autonomous vehicles that you can pay for, get in the back seat, with no driver and get taken places.

To the rest of your points, it's fundamentally illogical. A plateau implies an inability to continue to climb, but we can list hundreds of advancements that have happened. That you dismiss them does not mean that we have plateau'd.

Like, watching the advancements of Boston Dynamics robots shows a clear improvement. Watching, but the fact that you are even looking at humanoid robots to be out of the lab, ignores all the other actual practical advancements we've made in automation in warehouses and factories with robotics.

CleaverIam OP t1_isa2ahc wrote on October 14, 2022 at 12:13 PM

By plateau I don't mean an inability to make advancements. I mean advancements at a much lower rate them we got used to

TFenrir t1_isab99m wrote on October 14, 2022 at 1:27 PM

When did we get used to a faster pace? We have bio science literally creating new mechanisms that we are using now to cure genetic disease, and to create mrna treatments. That would have been science fiction a decade ago.

Boring material science improvements have allowed for rechargable batteries that are now not only in all our phones, and electric cars, but in a quickly growing industry of electric bikes or even vehicles that just didn't exist a decade ago. I see them every day.

We just created a replacement to the Hubble telescope, have internet slowly being made available via satellite everywhere, and knocked a meteor off track by shooting a rocket at it.

Our internet speeds and advancements in software and hardware allow for things like music and video streaming everywhere, where a decade ago we consumed all our content via disks or downloads. We have AR/VR rapidly making it into normal every day use society. We have smart homes where I literally shout to the ether to control my home or ask where my phone is.

I haven't even touched AI advancements since 2012. Or 2017. Both large milestones. We're now creating AI that I use every day at work, that people are making brand new kinds of applications with, that are generating text, code, and images - and we are on the cusp of AI that can control apps on your computer just by talking to it - don't believe me? Look into Adept and their action transformer.

I actually could go on and on. Almost every single company today has to be a tech company first. Why do you think that is, if tech advancements are slowing down?