Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

TheHamsterSandwich t1_irsnbvi wrote

Reply to comment by CleaverIam in Have we reached a technological plateau? by CleaverIam

Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2029. He's held that prediction for the longest time, and he hasn't changed it. I'm feeling confident about his prediction since he's betting money on it as well.

2

CleaverIam OP t1_irso27b wrote

I am not sure who that is but I will surely come back to this in 7 years and I am sure we will not see it. Meanwhile, while we are waiting, we are technically "stagnating". Waiting for an advancement is not the same as seeing it come.

2

TheHamsterSandwich t1_irsp56u wrote

I'd be shocked if it hadn't been achieved by that point. He recently said that we'll probably have AGI before 2029.

Ray Kurzweil is an optimist, but he has a track record of accurate predictions.

2

CleaverIam OP t1_irspopk wrote

I like your optimism but I believe you are in for a shock. At best we might have something that vaguely resembles AGI very slowly running on the fastest supercomputer that would be specifically designed to run it. Not something a average person would have a use for.

1