Cr4zko t1_iucbzvu wrote on October 30, 2022 at 6:35 AM

I don't think they care much to be honest. Besides China's economy is in the gutter.

userbrn1 t1_iue15jt wrote on October 30, 2022 at 4:54 PM

It went from being a nation of illiterate peasants to being the 2nd largest economy in the entire world in less than a century. US political leaders have been publicly and privately shifting an increasing amount of effort into combatting china, even taking extraordinary steps such as banning US companies (like NVIDEA) from selling profitable tech goods to china, harming the US company, because they feel china's meteoric rise is an existential threat to US dominance. How is china's economy "in the gutter" when it is only the second country in post-industrial human history (the first being the failed USSR) to build an economy fast enough to legitimately challenge the US economy in terms of size, productivity, and technological achievement?

Cr4zko t1_iue4nkl wrote on October 30, 2022 at 5:18 PM

It's all phony baloney, after 2020 it was never the same. We're talking about guys that make up GDP data by building ghost towns. It's gonna collapse.

userbrn1 t1_iue5yz8 wrote on October 30, 2022 at 5:26 PM

People have been saying that for decades. And the US government strongly disagrees with your assessment; you don't increase sanctions and export restrictions on a country you think will collapse on its own. Western leaders are correctly assessing the situation and realizing that China will surpass the US in economic, technological, and military dominance if they don't take increasingly aggressive action to stop it. Listen to Trump and Biden speak on China; it's not longer "we need to improve the US to stay dominant" its now "we need to slow China's rise as much as possible". They all know that it's a losing battle

Cr4zko t1_iuefm0b wrote on October 30, 2022 at 6:29 PM

I can't speak with even 85% of certainty (predicting the future with incomplete assessment is hard) but after COVID and after the US stopped selling microprocessors they took a hit. If manufacturing gets pulled out of china altogether (likely in the event of a global depression which we might face) the facade will finally wither and we'll see china for what it truly is. Same old tired story happened with the USSR back in '91. At least that's my personal prediction.

userbrn1 t1_iueiyy0 wrote on October 30, 2022 at 6:51 PM

You're right that the microchip stuff took a hit but I think the overall trend upwards will be hard to stop.

Truthfully I think the whole AI thing complicates matters in ways that it couldn't have in the USSR. I agree with many on this sub that AI will enable economic growth that has been unprecedented; 2-5% annual growth will give way to much larger jumps as mass deployment of industrial AI and robotics takes effect. IF (and this is a big if) China is able to roll out this tech faster than western countries, any current advantages the west has will quickly be overshadowed.

Perhaps self driving cars is a good litmus test for this. Western countries were the first ones to seriously make strides in the tech, but now a lot of Chinese cities are working with tech companies to enable taxi services. If China can take the lead in deployment of self driving cars both for personal and industrial use, it would be a good indicator that their unique command-market hybrid was a success in bringing emerging tech to fruition.

Next 5-10 years will be interestin haha

Cr4zko t1_iuek4oi wrote on October 30, 2022 at 6:59 PM

Well in case they manage to discover ASI it won't matter anyhow. None of our problems will... at least that's what this sub makes of it.