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Powerful_Range_4270 t1_is6w67c wrote

Human levels of intelligence in every area before 2030.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_is6xo7n wrote

So what areas come first, and when, and what's the impact for each?

Example - Doctors, are we talking new drugs and treatments? Or just unemployed doctors and we still go to check ups every once in a while or if something feels off?

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Dark-Arts t1_is6wend wrote

10 years from now AI will render all forms of work by humans utterly unecessary. Not just labour and drivers. Doctors, professionals, social workers, graphic designers, soldiers, judges, psychologists, even writers and scientists, creative workers, will all be worse at their jobs than an AI. We will literally have nothing to do but play, and if we play competitively against AI players we will lose.

There are glimmers of excitement in this future but mostly it horrifies me.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_is6xehj wrote

What do you think that timeline looks like? I'm more interested in the "how" than the "what" so for example, we see graphic artists panicking. Though they haven't faced unemployment yet, it seems inevitable. So what's the next pillar to fall, and when? And then what?

Basically what are the significant steps here?

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Rakshear t1_is6xuz7 wrote

I think nothing will actually change very noticeably, it will be more subtle stuff, I know everyone is freaking out over AI but true Agi which is what we want and need should be in the next 10 years and 3d printing is getting better, with crispr gene editing, agi, and new power sources, we should have a better QOL, a lot depends upon on the ww3 thing going on.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_is6yvis wrote

>I think nothing will actually change very noticeably, it will be more subtle stuff

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>3d printing is getting better, with crispr gene editing, agi, and new power sources

These sound pretty noticeable though. Relative to the singularity, maybe not, but compared to life today?

What effect will better 3D printers have? Where will CRISPR be within 10 years? What new power sources?

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Rakshear t1_is73fil wrote

3d printers have the potential to flip some boards, car parts printed on demand on site, no more waiting days to weeks. Houses built in a week, with designs that allow vertical add ons, upgrades to phones by recycling previous ones, in the near future 3d printers will be as common as tvs. Also with food, still really early on that but basically Star Trek replicators for corporate stuff. McDonald’s at home through a 3d printer, you just pay a licensing fee and provide material tubes. Web3 is going to be interesting.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_is796lm wrote

How far do you think we are from 3D printed metal that doesn't resemble cheap "cast" metals? Do you envision anything could be 3D printed? Like any material? What would a food material tube taste like haha.

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Glad_Laugh_5656 t1_is738ca wrote

>I think nothing will actually change very noticeably

In the next ten years, correct?

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Rakshear t1_is7cj2w wrote

Yes, beyond 10 years who knows, so much infrastructure needs to be built or rebuilt, that we need a international effort to re-engineer the planet itself in some ways.

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phriot t1_is73jil wrote

My predictions:

I think AR will become a common, if not preferred, interface for personal computing devices in this timeframe. It's possible/likely that a lot of the processing and communication will still be offloaded to smartphones and cloud. Most people will probably still have smartphones in 2032, but they will be on their way out as the dominant personal computing form factor.

Life expectancy in the developed world might go from increasing by 0.1-0.2 years per year to closer to 0.5 years per year. I think it's likely that personalized medicine, regenerative medicine, cell therapies, lab-made organs, etc. will start to come to a head toward the end of that period. Lifespan and healthspan will start to edge up a bit more quickly, but we won't yet be at the stage of really slowing or reversing aging, at least not outside the clinic.

UBI will be discussed more and more, but probably won't yet be widely implemented by 2032. That will depend on if we get a "major" industry disrupted by then or not. We'll probably see a lot of jobs be really augmented by AI by that point. A large number will probably continue to be de-skilled, too, but unless something like autopilot, and the associated laws, are solved, there won't be a large enough shock to encourage governments to act on UBI.

Renewable energy will continue to make up a greater portion of the energy mix, but still won't be moving quick enough to stave off climate change. We might get serious about funding fusion and building smaller scale thorium fission reactors by this point, as a reaction to green energy and battery tech not moving as quick as we need it to (which will mostly be due to lack of will, not lack of tech).

A nascent space economy will continue to form. Moon base will start to be built, but won't be continuously occupied by 2032. Elon Musk, afraid of not getting there before he dies, will make sure SpaceX launches something toward Mars in this timeframe. Probably won't be a person, yet.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_is7mytd wrote

When do you think a person will land on Mars?

Your timeline is "conservative" relative to the singularity sub here. But at the same time, seems only about 5 to 10 years off from what I think the average consensus is here. I'd say I'm more in line with your timeline, though I do hope acceleration takes off a bit more. I really have a pessimistic view toward the general population and governments. I am hoping that this decade has enough revolutionary tech to require serious thought of UBI sooner than 10 years away, but I'm not holding my breath.

I can't remember correctly at this point, and in hindsight it seems so obvious, but the jump from dumb phone to smart phone; I can't recall if it was so obvious at the time. We see and hear a lot of talk about AR glasses being the obvious step, I wonder if there's some other technology that will flip that notion on its head. AR seems like an amazing idea, but the general public wearing glasses seems a lot less likely to me than carrying a large screen in their pocket. The glasses would have to either be very customizable, or very resizable after they're made. Do you have a prediction of when the first viable ones will come to market?

It's too bad my posts get deleted from this subreddit for no reason, I was hoping to keep a conversation going to get some new perspectives.

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phriot t1_is9ek52 wrote

I'm slightly more conservative, because I'm not convinced that AGI is coming like tomorrow. I also subscribe to the thinking that we tend to overestimate near term progress, while underestimating the longer term future. 10 years hits kind of that boundary between near and far future enough to be pretty fuzzy.

I also don't remember how obvious it was at the time, but there's a pretty clear progression from PDAs through early smartphones like BlackBerries and Palm Treos. The idea that people would want to combine their PDA, phone, and camera into a single device seems like an inevitable one waiting for processing power and memory to catch up. But if social media and video on the internet didn't happen the way it did? Maybe we stayed with those physical keyboard devices for people that email or texted a lot and dumb phones plus iPods with great cameras for everyone else.

I think AR glasses do a similar consolidation of devices. Done right, and with enough cycles of Moore's Law, they can replace your smartphone, your laptop, desktop if you still have one, and many of the screens that exist in your life. (I've been dreaming of having a single computing device ever since Canonical's failed Ubuntu Edge crowdfunding campaign, the same year I got my first smartphone.) But yes, a small, durable slate in your pocket may be more convenient than carrying glasses. People deal with sunglasses, though. At the very least, AR glasses are better for privacy without people being able to look over your shoulder to see what you're doing. That alone might be their "killer app."

I think we're looking at 2024-2026 for AR glasses to really start being a thing. I'm basing this on the idea that Apple will get their initial product (their glasses, not their headset) "right" enough to start mass adoption ramping up. I'm not an Apple fan boy. I just think they're the most willing to wait on releasing until they have a product their users want.

I think we'll land a person on Mars in the mid to late 2030s. I'm basing this on there being ~5 launch windows between now and 2032, and we haven't made it back to the moon, yet, even. 2032 just sounds early for a human mission, unless a space billionaire decides to YOLO it.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_is9yvbr wrote

>10 years hits kind of that boundary between near and far future enough to be pretty fuzzy.

That was my exact thinking behind the original post. Each passing year seems to make it more difficult to gauge where the next decade will go, which is exciting. But I don't know if we'll hit any life altering tech in that time. I look at each passing 5 year span as a set up for the next 5 years. I'm hoping the AR we have now comes to consumers in the next 5 years.

Do you think all devices with screens now, will be screen-less when AR is ubiquitous (if that's less than 10 years)? I think phones will be the processor and main hub for other devices. Watches will remain and get much better sensors, perhaps other sensors can be worn elsewhere to compliment them. And AR glasses will start out as a HUD device with the ability to "cast" screens. I'm not so sure I see AR glasses as a replacement to all devices, simply because of how vain humans are. Selfies would be impossible barring the use of some kind of avatar. Smart watches or bands would work great as a physical controller for AR, or gyroscopic control. Eye tracking will be important to reach that "killer app" scenario, unless brainwave reading gets super advanced quickly. I think we need some pretty significant battery advancements as well. I'll admit though, I haven't kept up with AR as much as I should, so I'm not sure exactly where we're at today.

Do you think AR is this decades most/only truly revolutionary tech? I think chat bots will hit the general public by surprise soon. Virtual assistants will be upgraded when we solve the unpredictable nature of them so they're safe to use. Safe referring to needing a disclaimer that says don't trust what it says. I think when our virtual assistants are capable to converse with and do things for us, it will really feel like the future is here.

I do think narrow AI will make big waves by 2025/6. I think that's when employment issues will start to crop up, before being a crises shortly after.

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phriot t1_isa8088 wrote

>Do you think AR is this decades most/only truly revolutionary tech

It's definitely the one I'm most certain about. My feeling is probably because it's the smallest leap in technology for adoption among the types of innovation discussed here.

>I'm not so sure I see AR glasses as a replacement to all devices, simply because of how vain humans are. Selfies would be impossible barring the use of some kind of avatar.

Yeah, I agree that smartphones are likely to be a personal area network hub for a while, including the early 2030s. That said, just like I usually reach for my phone before my laptop or a tablet, I think people will just use their AR glasses more and more. The arbitrary "screen" size is what does it for me. For example, I bring a Kindle on my commute, because I like to read on a larger screen than my phone. With AR glasses, I can leave that at home. If the glasses hardware ever equals the smartphone, I can leave that at home, too. At that point, maybe I can carry a little selfie drone, or something, if I really feel the need.

>I do think narrow AI will make big waves by 2025/6. I think that's when employment issues will start to crop up, before being a crises shortly after.

My feeling is that the next decade will be one where AI augments some workers and deskills others. Maybe some industries will be virtually eliminated. (I can see everyday journalism being taken completely over by AI writing stories based on data from oracles by 2030.) But I'm open to being wrong. A lot of the most common jobs are still centered around retail or food (salespersons, cashiers, etc.), which can be eliminated if we get comfortable with stores like Amazon Go, or management, which can probably be supplanted by software. Two other of the most common jobs are personal care assistants and registered nurses. I think these are more likely augmented than eliminated.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_isb2jbm wrote

>maybe I can carry a little selfie drone

That would be pretty awesome, I have to admit. Just fire off a little thumb drive sized drone. and you can see the viewfinder through your AR glasses. I agree though, with any size screen it will definitely make a lot of current stuff useless for a lot of people. Outside of gamers or people that need a powerful CPU/GPU, there would be no point in tablets, laptops, eventually cell phones. Still wonder how they will get people to wear them all the time, but maybe by the time they become mainstream it will use a different tech. Like a projector of sorts on a thin arm that fires the image into your eye instead of looking through glasses.

>My feeling is that the next decade will be one where AI augments some workers and deskills others. Maybe some industries will be virtually eliminated.

It will definitely be a while until every job is eliminated, but I do think deskilling jobs and making each employee much more effective will leave a ton of people unemployed. People always refer to the industrial revolution and say people will retrain for new jobs. But I really don't see how that will apply here. Sure, some people will be able to get highly specialized skilled jobs, and manual labor will last for a while too. But there just won't be enough work when a lot of things just require an AI "operator" to conduct more work than a single human could on their own. It only takes like 10% (or even less) unemployment to cause a crises.

It's not like a journalist will be able to retrain to be a nanobot engineer or whatever example you want to use. I personally think this will happen quicker than people are comfortable admitting. It doesn't require 100% or even 50% of jobs to be automated, it only requires a few key sectors to lay off a lot of employees because they aren't essential for operation anymore.

Retail for example, yes there will still need to be people there in the near future, but a simple kiosk that takes an order for a pair of jeans. It can drop it through a chute in front of the customer, and they can tap to pay for it or go try it on. Yes we need the employees that stock the inventory and to help customers that need it, but that could be an easy 75% reduction in staff. That's possible today. The infrastructure isn't worth it yet, but when questions can be posed to an AI about inventory or ask for style tips from a fashion AI or can gauge your size perfectly?

The moment people prefer to deal with AI instead of a human is when this takes off.

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w33dSw4gD4wg360 t1_is6yua0 wrote

Using an AR headset and tracking to manipulate a 3D GUI that surrounds you, instead of using flat, 2D displays. A near-general AI assistant/collaborator that you can work with to brainstorm, research, create, or plan out ideas within this 3D space.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_is6zxvc wrote

Yeah that's the stuff I'm asking about. Do you think the advancements of AR will be quick enough for this to be mainstream within 10 years?

I'm actually surprised there hasn't been a buzz about improvements to our virtual assistants yet. I think that will be very soon, and will hopefully be a pretty big game changer but I have my doubts tech corporations will implement it in a very useful way. Take the current google/siri/alexa stuff. It could do a lot more. Our smart homes could be much more robust and better. But we mostly have smart bulbs, thermostats, locks, and cameras. And using voice assistants to adjust those works most of the time, but it's so basic for the average consumer.

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w33dSw4gD4wg360 t1_is71r8x wrote

Not sure if it will be advanced enough to be fully practical for the average consumer (like being light, fashionable, secured, etc), but even today we have stuff like character.ai, play.ht, and various ar headsets. These could be combined into one product on paper, but it would be pretty scuffed.

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