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johndburger t1_isr7a6r wrote

Reply to comment by Sashinii in Talked to people minimizing/negating potential AI impact in their field? eg: artists, coders... by kmtrp

> The general public largely has no idea that AI is going to change everything within a few years.

I’ve been involved with AI research for thirty years, and researchers have been saying the above for thirty years before that.

Maybe this time it’s different, but you’ve got to admit there’s a track record that is not encouraging.

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Yuli-Ban t1_isrormn wrote

To be fair... AI researchers for the past 67 years were using computers too weak to even sufficiently run some of the programs they theorized were necessary for AI to work.

I compare it to saying that a 20-year-old person can't drive a car because they couldn't drive one when they were 5.

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Thelmara t1_ist91tc wrote

>To be fair... AI researchers for the past 67 years were using computers too weak to even sufficiently run some of the programs they theorized were necessary for AI to work.

Seems like they'd have taken that into account when making their predictions, yeah?

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Yuli-Ban t1_iste3ag wrote

They really weren't, at least not realistically, especially during the first AI boo. Men using electric bricks they tried calling computers predicted they'd have human level AI within ten years of 1960.

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Thelmara t1_isteziq wrote

Ah, but this time it's different, eh? Cool

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Yuli-Ban t1_istf5xi wrote

Need only look back at the past two to three years of developments to make that call.

Did GPT-3 or DALL-E 2 happen in the 1980s? Could they have? No? QED.

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johndburger t1_istelt3 wrote

I see no reason to think we won’t be saying the same thing about today’s computers in thirty years. In fact I’m pretty sure we will be saying that because, again, that’s consistent with history.

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mommi84 t1_isspohk wrote

AI winters may come back, I agree, but regardless of how you define 'a few years', it's undeniable that the gaps between breakthroughs have been shrinking. Isn't this what exponential growth means, start slow and get fast very quickly?

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