SgathTriallair t1_it4qwlo wrote
The biggest issue isn't developing the tech is distributing the tech.
An AGI or even ASI sitting on a computer in a lab doesn't do much to change the world. Even if it can act in the world it's not fundamentally different from having another person in the world.
The transformation happens when the AI, in whatever form, begins to be integrated.
Dali is cool but until it is used widely in commercial applications it doesn't really change anything.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4skby wrote
I think that is not quite correct. I'm not even talking about AGI/ASI in the post as being the Transformative AI either. Too speculative to comment on something like ASI remaining contained or whatever.
But while I agree the bottleneck is production and distribution, software is so easily distributed. We don't need labour jobs being taken over by robots right away. Programmers, accountants, lawyers, researchers, any intellectual career; these can all be very easily disrupted. I'm not even talking full automation either. I'm talking a tipping point for policies and governments to change. Transforming society. An AI to increase efficiency in robotics, distribution logistics, production techniques? All of these are overnight emails to swathes of employees being laid off. It will happen more and more frequently. I believe it will start soon, the tech to start really automating significant portions of jobs that lead to lay offs will be created by 2025, and after 2025 the dominos will fall. That's what I predict anyway.
We don't need AGI to disrupt everything. I don't think governments and policy makers will catch it in time either.
​
>Dali is cool but until it is used widely in commercial applications
Text to image AI is already being used commercially. Like a lot. Photoshop will be mostly replaced soon with AI editing images as well.
SgathTriallair t1_it4ura8 wrote
It'll certainly happen way faster than we anticipate but, for example, so long as the courts don't recognize AI legal advice and the public feels more comfortable getting a real lawyer, a good AI lawyer program won't make a big impact.
It'll really hit when the companies start using AI and customers come to trust it more than humans. One that tipping point hits it'll cascade fast.
I've already told some of my workers that their job as writers is in danger soon so they need to start learning the skills to project manage multiple AI writers so they can continue to be useful.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4w71z wrote
>so long as the courts don't recognize AI legal advice and the public feels more comfortable getting a real lawyer, a good AI lawyer program won't make a big impact.
That's the same point everyone misunderstands. Transformative AI != full automation off the start.
It will replace the lawyer's law clerks. How many law clerks can say "Well I'll just use my skills and become a lawyer" though? Very few. They will be unemployed. This will happen across all industries. Rapidly, and more advanced versions will come out faster and faster.
We have LLM's that can nearly do this, released earlier in the year. There will probably be push back, don't get me wrong. But the Lawyers that choose productivity and money over employing the people below them will take on more cases, earn more money, get better advice, choose better clients to win more cases.
SgathTriallair t1_it4wztp wrote
Transformation of society can't happen until society adopts the AI. The potential for change can be there but it takes widespread adoption to become actualized.
We already built out an AI, years ago, that was able to help people get out of parking tickets by giving them the right legal advice. It hasn't been widely adopted though so no major change has happened to society.
I agree that TODAY we could automate a lot of lower white collar work but we won't do it because the decision makers don't want to automate away their jobs. Hell, I'm watching my company go backwards on automation because they want a "human touch" which is just slower and sloppier than the partially automated system they are abandoning.
We need some key disrupters to enter the market, like Uber, Amazon, etc. and then things will cascade quickly.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4ygqu wrote
I can see the argument here for sure. But it's not up to general society. Corporations will do this first. Think nearly all support chat and calls as a start. When you call now you get a shitty robot that you have to push buttons to get through, or chat that you have to try and get to a human. Those would be replaceable today, and save enormous amounts of money. All that takes is a small LLM a corporation could train on their products/services.
Decision makers that see the dollar signs absolutely will. They outsource products overseas with inferior quality because they don't care. They reduce consumable product sizes and charge more money for them because they don't care. When their quarterly profits go up, they don't care how the customer feels.
Talkat t1_it6bwc8 wrote
Also Google Search, one of the largest products by revenue, has a very real option of been disrupted with AI
brosirmandude t1_it7clfk wrote
Yeah I'm not sure how Google search survives in it's current form.
Talkat t1_itagl50 wrote
There's a very real chance googles cash cow gets replaced by another company
gu4x t1_itknu6y wrote
Why? We'll automate the user too?
Talkat t1_itp9vix wrote
No. Google returns your websites.
And AI can answer your question directly and in a conversational manner.
It can create the content you want, whether it be audio, images, video, text, data, voice, etc.
Google is in a prime position to adapt, however, time and time again those in the dominant position fail to innovate and Google hasn't been innovating like they used to.
Bierculles t1_it68gq1 wrote
Githubs copilote boosted the productivity of the programmers who use it by 55% allready. That is a prime example of an AI beeing used commercially, and not just for vanity but actualy productivity. Other fields will take a lot longer though, mostly because of stuffy management and a strong "never change anything" mentality a lot of workers have. But i think this will sort itself out rather fast as companies that do not quickly adapt to AI will be left in the dust.
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments