AdditionalPizza OP t1_it6snr9 wrote on October 21, 2022 at 10:40 AM

Reply to comment by Talkat in If you believe you can think exponentially, you might be wrong. Transformative AI is here, and it is going to radically change the world before the Singularity, and before AGI. by AdditionalPizza

The tough part about thinking exponentially is we have to base it on something. When it's a chart over the span of 20 years it's easy, connect the dots and wait. We've been doing that for decades.

When we're at a point that the rate is advancing so quickly, and the timeframe is less than a decade we need to fight linear thinking.

5 years today is 5 years in the past. 5 years of progress from today will happen in 2.5 years relative to the past 5.

>out of curiosity, what date you have for AGI?

Not the answer you want, but I have no idea. I don't think it really matters either. LLM's will likely prove to be significant enough that we will be making huge advances in the coming years.

But if I had to guess based off my limited knowledge, I'd say prior to 2029. 2027 to 2028 so long as LLM's will either directly lead to AGI or have the ability to solve the hurdles we need to get there. We have things like AlphaTensor, who knows what else we can come up with in a year or 2.

Cr4zko t1_it7jlid wrote on October 21, 2022 at 2:36 PM

RemindMe! 5 years

Talkat t1_itag4t9 wrote on October 22, 2022 at 3:14 AM

Really do wonder where we will be at in five years.

We will certainly have very accurate video clips (vs still inaccurate images now).

We will be able to feed language models into image generators, but I assume we will have a single integrated model for that.

And we are getting close to voice and music, so certainly in five years we will have mastered that.

Meaning we will have a model that will be able to generate videos with voices, sound tracks and sfx, shots, dialogue, and a story. Potentially we will be able to make longer form content (perhaps episodes or movies by then)

Tesla bot will be able to take commands and do activities. Plugged the net above will have voice.

Deepmind will continue their work with a general purpose model which will be able to take in problems and solve them. The question is will they be able to recursively improve an AI model. That is the biggest unknown. If so that will outshine everyone else's work.

Right now we have a few companies making images (Facebook, openai, midjourney, openai). I expect there to many companies doing it and very good models you can run on your own GPU at home that makes decent output.

Expect search to have largely changed so instead of googling for websites you ask an AI a question and it generates an answer.

Expect a lot more voice input/discussion with AI. Instead of giving it commands you give guidance (eg play some good music vs play red hot chilli peppers)

Talking of music I think a majority of music in five years will be AI generated and will be fantastic (mentioned above)

Self driving will be solved by Tesla. Don't think anyone else will have it. They may license it out to other companies.

With self driving solved Tesla will focus on other areas, potentially general purpose AI.

Good set of predictions here. Interested to see how accurate they are :)

Talkat t1_ita06iy wrote on October 22, 2022 at 12:59 AM

RemindMe! 5 years

Talkat t1_itaghy5 wrote on October 22, 2022 at 3:17 AM

My feeling is there is a very good chance we will have AGI by 2030. A decent chance by 2028-2030. And a very slim chance by 2025. I think the wild card is deepmind for the 2025 scenario.

And agreed the date doesn't really matter. AIs impact will continue to grow exponentially