nillouise t1_itbbwtz wrote on October 22, 2022 at 9:51 AM

In my opinion, the timeline or exponent is unimportant, the key thing is the ability the AI have, we should observe the ability that AI have, not the underlying technology of AI.

Because there are some abilities can produce very much powerful impact, we should clear which ability can have the most powerful impact.

AdditionalPizza OP t1_itbdu7b wrote on October 22, 2022 at 10:19 AM

The current LLM's work in a general way, they just need to be scaled to include a larger pool of abilities.

Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of hurdles in the way, but let's just wait and see what the next generation of models have the ability to do. Hopefully within a few months we will have an idea.

Odds are with scaling, at least most jobs will be replaceable within 5 years. All data entry jobs anyway, which is a very significant amount of work for humans. Anything that requires a human to enter information into a computer should be replaceable. Fairly likely, most/all jobs that require logistics and planning.

nillouise t1_itbfv5v wrote on October 22, 2022 at 10:47 AM

There is a little different from my meaning, I mean the most powful ability, not just replace some human jobs. Not matter what AI will impact the world, it is all by the ability the AI have. I want to see the ability that can help AI conquer the world.

But who will know the order of ability that AI will have? Self drive have develop so many year but build nearly nothing, and AI draw only spend two year enough to kill the drawing job.