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visarga t1_it92bst wrote

In this paper a group of researchers use GPT-3 to simulate a poll. They first collect a bunch of people profiles. They also get profile distribution in their target population from the census data. Then, asking GPT-3 to assume those profiles, they run the poll questions. The result - GPT-3 can predict the poll correctly.

> GPT-3 has biases that are “fine-grained and demographically correlated, meaning that proper conditioning will cause it to accurately emulate response distributions from a wide variety of human subgroups.”

This means we can run any idea, tweet or bullshit against a virtual poll and see how it would fare in a specific population. This is kind-of like running a simulated world who's task is to be your focus group. I think this will catch up. I'm thinking especially politicians, advertisers, startups - they all want to fine-tune their message. Who knows, maybe movie directors would run fake reviews against the virtual focus group before even making the movie, why risk your money on an idea that would turn out bad?

https://jack-clark.net/2022/10/11/import-ai-305-gpt3-can-simulate-real-people-ai-discovers-better-matrix-multiplication-microsoft-worries-about-next-gen-deepfakes/

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