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Frumpagumpus t1_it98ubw wrote

yea next 6 months to a year might be a bit dicey due to global credit crunch but thats planting the seeds of big bucks over the next several years, my opinion.

china invading taiwan might extend the diciness by a few years tho lol


kmtrp t1_itbrpdb wrote

>global credit crunch

What's that?


Frumpagumpus t1_itbstbm wrote

most of the money in the world economy is created through bank loans, primarily for real estate/housing (other big source being gov deficits of countries that mint their own currencies)

inflation got really high and creates a feedback loop, so global central banks are hiking interest rates which makes it more expensive to get loans for said real estate, but also for any actual productive endeavors, like building a factory an energy plant or something. (when investors can get higher interest rates on buying bonds/lending money they also demand higher returns on stock financed things).

however this is really the only lever global governments have to pull, the housing/credit lever, because most gov budgets through e.g. social security, pension funds will automatically spend more and more money as inflation heats up. Also legislatures wouldnt want to push through fiscal austerity bills when they could just pin the downturn on the banks instead.

so they are going to have to pull it hard and make money scarce/destroy demand to stop the feedback loop of inflation.

more or less.


kmtrp t1_itbu74n wrote

Hey I apprecite the effort. I thought it was more of a consumer related thing, like the consumer prize indicator or some such? IIRC that's how we know what is the current inflation?

I swear I've read up on this a few times, can't keep it in my head for more than a few weeks, it's so abstract.