I strongly doubt China will attack Taiwan within the next five years. They simply don't have the capability just yet, despite what our warmongering media keeps hyping up. At most, they could bombard the island with rockets and artillery. My prediction is that, if China decides to invade Taiwan, they will first invade some other country or territory to test their military might (one of the central Asian -stans or Mongolia, most likely), and if they do any better than outright failure, then that'll be a telegraph of their intentions.

It's entirely Ukraine that worries me because we in the West deeply underestimate how much it means to the Russians. There's only a small chance we could finagle a win without pushing the Russians to use nuclear weaponry, and it remains to be seen if we'll capture that chance. It's either that or a long, very brutal protracted war.