ChronoPsyche t1_itflcsu wrote
Reply to comment by GeneralZain in Given the exponential rate of improvement to prompt based image/video generation, in how many years do you think we'll see entire movies generated from a prompt? by yea_okay_dude
>did you know about gato? did you know about palm? or minerva? or how about stable diffusion? or cog video? or the meta one? or the google video model? why didn't you warn us just before they came out?!?!
I knew about the state of the technology and what was possible with it. None of what has been released has been surprising in that regard. Nothing has exceeded the current limitations we have, which are memory issues having to do with the running time limitations of our current algorithms.
>You have no idea what they got in the lab that's unreleased/under NDA.
>
>if you think you know exactly what's coming then where are your exact predictions on things to come?
I don't know exactly what's coming when. That's why I'm not making exact predictions. I do know the current state of the technology and without major breakthroughs, there is a limit to how advanced AI will get in the short term.
Sure, Google could theoretically reach said breakthrough behind closed doors, but we don't know when that will happen, and so making precise predictions like "text to feature length movie will happen in one year MAX" despite the fact that the necessary breakthroughs for such a technology to even be feasible haven't been reached yet, is patently ridiculous.
Things happening faster than you thought is not some benchmark you can use to predict the future. There are reasons things happen faster than you thought, and without knowing those reasons, trying to extrapolate the rate of future short-term progress based on past short-term progress is folly.
GeneralZain t1_itfodyy wrote
I don't need to know EXACTLY when or what is going to happen, only that pace of change has increased in will likely continue to increase over time due to, in large part, AI.
we are already working on what's needed to generate long form coherent generated videos. it is literally around the corner, and you don't have to be a psychic to see that it will not take long to happen.
I saw it when generated images first came out and I still see it now...we are about to fall off a cliff of technological change, whether you think its true or not is irrelevant to me :P
what will happen will happen.
but maybe you are right tho...this year so far has totally not been nuts, its absolutelyyy going to slow down...sure.
ChronoPsyche t1_itfr6yb wrote
>I don't need to know EXACTLY when or what is going to happen, only that pace of change has increased in will likely continue to increase over time due to, in large part, AI.
Well that is certainly a change of goal posts. I agree that the pace of change will increase OVER TIME. Long term exponential growth is different than short term.
Predicting text to movie in one year is different than saying it will happen eventually lol. You need specific information to be able to say it will happen in one year, not just a general feeling of being wowed by the pace of technological change. One year is an exceedingly short time frame.
If you ask the people actually working on this stuff, I guarantee even they would not predict that in one year we will be able to type out a prompt and AI will turn it into a coherent feature-length film production.
These are the predictions of people who don't know what they are talking about.
Come back and tell me "I told ya so" if I'm wrong in one year. I'll be more than happy to say you were right.
GeneralZain t1_itftjaw wrote
just so we are clear, I said one year MAX as in it's probably going to happen in less than a year from now.
I never said "oh it will happen eventually". I was referring to pace of change alone for transformational technology development, specifically AI.
yeah one year is a really short time period, I KNOW. that's what I keep reminding you that THIS YEAR WAS INSANE.
it will continue to get more and more insane over time.
that's what leads me to believe it will happen far faster than any realize. look at this year and assume the pace of development stays the same...we are in for a wild ride.
ChronoPsyche t1_itftygh wrote
And as someone who has a better understanding of the current state of technology, I am telling you that what happened this year was predictable based on where the technology was last year. Text to full length coherent movie is not possible next year based on the state of technology this year, unless we have a major breakthrough. You're basically predicting based on feelings. Feelings don't cut it. Sorry.
GeneralZain t1_itk0u8i wrote
haha I'm just pointing out what I'm seeing, no feelings involved at all :)
I cant wait to come back to this post in less than a year to remind you how right I was ;) see you then!
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